RED MEAT FOR CHIEFS' FANS Part II
This is the second part of my 'State of the Chiefs' piece. Part I examined how they got to the bottom of the NFL & in this portion, I'll give you my opinion about how they can go about getting off the bottom. On Thursday, April 23rd, I'll post everything new I've found & basically recap all I know about Kansas City's intentions 2 days prior to the draft. Hopefully some of the questions I raise here will have been answered by then, but don't count on it, the brain trust at Arrowhead doesn't reveal much.
How Do We Get Out of this Mess?
As I stated in the first part there are so many things that caused our team to go off the tracks, I believe it will take free agent signings, hopefully 1 after June 1st & 3-4 next February. I've scanned the list of remaining free agents & it's pretty thin talent wise. These free agents don't have to be high dollar starters, either older veterans like Mikes Vrabel & Goff or backup players that provide the needed depth & ones willing to bust their ass on special teams. It's going to take 2 very good drafts to return to playoff contention & 1 more to fine tune the roster, filling 1 or 2 specific needs.
I think a good place to start is to determine the status of Tony Gonzalez, Brian Waters & Larry Johnson in regards to who stays & who goes. The latest I've heard about LJ is about the arbitration case which will settle nearly $4 million in guaranteed money. Adam Teicher of The Kansas City Star has reported that Johnson is most likely gone regardless of the arbitration outcome. He's certainly closer to this situation than I am, so I'm going with the assumption he's gone. I've heard wild speculation that he could bring a 2nd round draft pick, to which I say no way. I think it will be hard to get a 2nd for Tony Gonzalez & he's the most productive tight end in league history, hasn't suffered significant injury & has zero baggage off the field. With Johnson's contract, his one dimensional play & all the trouble off-field, I think a 4th round pick at best, but more likely a 6th. Unless Scott Pioli's phone is ringing off the hook regarding Johnson, interested teams would be better off just waiting for Kansas City to release him & they keep their draft pick. I think he still has plenty left in the tank, but he is a pain in the butt, no question.
Unless Tony Gonzalez demands a trade, which I don't think he'll do, he stays in Kansas City until he retires. He is a pro's pro, always prepared both mentally & physically, a consistent playmaker who wants the ball & Tony has always been a fan favorite. I say he stays, let's hope he does.
Brian Waters' overblown dust up with Todd Haley shouldn't affect his future with the Chiefs. Up until that incident, his relationship with Chiefs' management hadn't been adversarial. He has been a positive leader in the locker room & he helps with Brandon Albert's development. A team that has won 6 games in 2 years can't afford to lose Pro Bowl players like Gonzalez & Waters. I don't get a vote on this, but I hope both stay in Kansas City & frankly I really don't have a problem with LJ staying either.
A large question at this point is what type of defensive scheme will Clancy Pendergast employ? It's been speculated they would go to the 3-4, but I have never read or heard Haley or Pendergast speak definitively about this. Many of our current linemen really don't project well into a 3-4 scheme. A 3-4 also calls for more linebackers, as many as 9 on the roster. The outside LBs generally provide most of the pass rush in this defense. Look at the league's sack leaders over the past few seasons you'll see over half of them are outside linebackers playing in a 3-4 defense. Shawne Merriman, Joey Porter, DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley & even our own Mike Vrabel recorded 12.5 sacks in '07. The defensive ends have to be bigger, more tackle-size. The nose tackle must be very large or super quick, but either way, the nose man must occupy 2 blockers at all times. An inside linebacker's responsibilities aren't much different in either scheme & usually can play in either defense. It's the outside guys that aren't interchangeable. OLB's in a 3-4 scheme are usually larger & they have to be able to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. I see Derrick Johnson moving inside this season, he's just never shown that burst off the edge that's needed to get to the QB. Tamba Hali might be tried at ILB as well, I think he's too small to be effective at DE & he might be athletic enough to be a 2-down linebacker. I'd be thrilled with a defense that had discipline, something that's been lacking here for years. The outside guys set the edge & stay home maintaining backside responsibility. The inside guys get off their blocks & maintain gap responsibility. If the front 7 can handle these responsibilities consistently, they will be better than the '08 version, regardless of personnel.
What Pioli & Company will do in the draft is pure speculation at this point but there are things regarding our football team that are very apparent, so I'll address them first. They have many needs, they currently have 7 draft picks, no second round & two 7th round picks. Before the draft even begins, Pioli has strengthened the team by trading a single 2nd round pick for QB Matt Cassel & LB Mike Vrabel. This eliminated the QB need & lessened the linebacker want list by one. So what else do they need?
Linebacker-If they go to a 3-4 defense, they'll need at least 3 more linebackers now & at least 2 more down the road. It takes 8-9 linebackers to play this defense & the starting 4 need to be exceptional. That means they need 2 additional starters right now.
Defensive Line-They currently have Turk McBride, Tamba Hali, Brian Johnston, Alphonso Boone, Ron Edwards, Tank Tyler & Glenn Dorsey. It's hard for me to project any of these guys into a 3-4 defense because they played so poorly as a group last year & with the same line coach, Tim Krumrie, I'm not exactly brimming with confidence. I think Hali will have to shed 15 pounds, move to linebacker & give it a shot. I have no confidence in Tyler or Edwards in a new scheme. McBride & Johnston would have to get bigger & stronger to play DE in this defense, I don't know if they have the frame to add bulk & not lose whatever quickness they have. Boone could play DE, but I see him more as rotational relief, not your starter. That brings us to Dorsey. At 297 pounds & his frame, I can't see him gaining more than 6-8 pounds. He is barely 6' tall, so there's a real question about his size & this defense. Most nose tackles are huge, in the 6' 2" 325-lb range. Some are even bigger. Of the lighter nose tackles like Miami's Jason Ferguson or Dallas' Jay Ratliff, both barely 300 lbs, but both are 6' 4". Baltimore's Kelly Gregg is just about Dorsey's size & his game is similar to what Dorsey was at LSU, quick & disruptive from tackle to tackle. With proper coaching, I think Dorsey could be the same kind of force in the middle. Playing nose tackle takes extreme mental toughness to say nothing of the physical part of the position. They will have to add personnel here but other than a designated pass rusher, I truly don't know what the people they already have are capable of in this defense.
Center-Rudy Niswanger might make it as a backup guard, but he's not a starting center. Defenders get under his pads & consistently stand him up, losing all leverage. He's tall & not very wide for the position. Backup Wade Smith isn't an NFL player in my opinion, so drafting a center is a pretty high priority in my mind.
Right Tackle-Damion McIntosh was never going to be the answer at either tackle position & his performance last year was a career low. Herb Taylor might stick as a backup, but he has neither the size or aggressiveness to play this position. You can count the finesse players at right tackle on one hand, the position really calls for a road grader. Keeping Matt Cassel upright is a must & a QB's best friend can be a consistent running game.
Running Back-If Larry Johnson departs thru a trade or his release, this position will need a substantial upgrade. Jamaal Charles was drafted as a change of pace back & I saw very little to excite me last season. He had trouble hanging onto the ball too. Kolby Smith suffered a knee injury but at best he is the 3rd option at RB.
Guard-If Waters is traded this becomes a priority, if he stays, he & Mike Goff should form a pretty decent guard tandem.
Wide Receiver-Since they signed veteran Bobby Ingram to play the slot receiver, their other WR need would be for a guy with big speed. Someone who can stretch the field & move the free safety out of centerfield. Bowe, Gonzalez & Engram would all benefit greatly. It's much easier to throw over a dropping middle linebacker than a safety running downhill toward a route. Someone needs to emerge from the Mark Bradley/Will Franklin/Bobby Sippio trio as the 4th receiver.
Tight End-A blocking tight end is also a need. Ever since Jason Dunn left, we haven't had that extra blocker in the run game. Brad Cottam isn't physical enough & Mike Merritt was waived after a drug possession charge.
I've listed a need for 10 players, maybe as many as 12, the D-line puzzles me and we only have 7 draft picks. Get the picture? This is going to take a while. Trading down from the #3 overall spot might happen. They have to decide if taking Aaron Curry is better in the long run than getting 2 or 3 more players who, right now, don't carry the high grade that Curry has. I can tell you from the people they've brought in for private workouts, they will be prepared to trade down if the opportunity presents itself. They've had DE Paul Kruger, DE/OLB Connor Barwin, DE/OLB Everette Brown, DT Jarron Gilbert & OT Eben Britton come to K.C. for workouts & interviews. None of these prospects will go as high as the 3rd overall pick or last until our 3rd round pick, so you know they're getting prepared for anything.
I have an extensive Chiefs' draft cheat sheet, a listing of prospects who are capable of contributing both on & off the field. I'll post it after this Cutler drama shakes out, plus other things will pop up to change the draft. I'll post it 3 weeks from today, the 23rd.
How Do We Get Out of this Mess?
As I stated in the first part there are so many things that caused our team to go off the tracks, I believe it will take free agent signings, hopefully 1 after June 1st & 3-4 next February. I've scanned the list of remaining free agents & it's pretty thin talent wise. These free agents don't have to be high dollar starters, either older veterans like Mikes Vrabel & Goff or backup players that provide the needed depth & ones willing to bust their ass on special teams. It's going to take 2 very good drafts to return to playoff contention & 1 more to fine tune the roster, filling 1 or 2 specific needs.
I think a good place to start is to determine the status of Tony Gonzalez, Brian Waters & Larry Johnson in regards to who stays & who goes. The latest I've heard about LJ is about the arbitration case which will settle nearly $4 million in guaranteed money. Adam Teicher of The Kansas City Star has reported that Johnson is most likely gone regardless of the arbitration outcome. He's certainly closer to this situation than I am, so I'm going with the assumption he's gone. I've heard wild speculation that he could bring a 2nd round draft pick, to which I say no way. I think it will be hard to get a 2nd for Tony Gonzalez & he's the most productive tight end in league history, hasn't suffered significant injury & has zero baggage off the field. With Johnson's contract, his one dimensional play & all the trouble off-field, I think a 4th round pick at best, but more likely a 6th. Unless Scott Pioli's phone is ringing off the hook regarding Johnson, interested teams would be better off just waiting for Kansas City to release him & they keep their draft pick. I think he still has plenty left in the tank, but he is a pain in the butt, no question.
Unless Tony Gonzalez demands a trade, which I don't think he'll do, he stays in Kansas City until he retires. He is a pro's pro, always prepared both mentally & physically, a consistent playmaker who wants the ball & Tony has always been a fan favorite. I say he stays, let's hope he does.
Brian Waters' overblown dust up with Todd Haley shouldn't affect his future with the Chiefs. Up until that incident, his relationship with Chiefs' management hadn't been adversarial. He has been a positive leader in the locker room & he helps with Brandon Albert's development. A team that has won 6 games in 2 years can't afford to lose Pro Bowl players like Gonzalez & Waters. I don't get a vote on this, but I hope both stay in Kansas City & frankly I really don't have a problem with LJ staying either.
A large question at this point is what type of defensive scheme will Clancy Pendergast employ? It's been speculated they would go to the 3-4, but I have never read or heard Haley or Pendergast speak definitively about this. Many of our current linemen really don't project well into a 3-4 scheme. A 3-4 also calls for more linebackers, as many as 9 on the roster. The outside LBs generally provide most of the pass rush in this defense. Look at the league's sack leaders over the past few seasons you'll see over half of them are outside linebackers playing in a 3-4 defense. Shawne Merriman, Joey Porter, DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley & even our own Mike Vrabel recorded 12.5 sacks in '07. The defensive ends have to be bigger, more tackle-size. The nose tackle must be very large or super quick, but either way, the nose man must occupy 2 blockers at all times. An inside linebacker's responsibilities aren't much different in either scheme & usually can play in either defense. It's the outside guys that aren't interchangeable. OLB's in a 3-4 scheme are usually larger & they have to be able to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. I see Derrick Johnson moving inside this season, he's just never shown that burst off the edge that's needed to get to the QB. Tamba Hali might be tried at ILB as well, I think he's too small to be effective at DE & he might be athletic enough to be a 2-down linebacker. I'd be thrilled with a defense that had discipline, something that's been lacking here for years. The outside guys set the edge & stay home maintaining backside responsibility. The inside guys get off their blocks & maintain gap responsibility. If the front 7 can handle these responsibilities consistently, they will be better than the '08 version, regardless of personnel.
What Pioli & Company will do in the draft is pure speculation at this point but there are things regarding our football team that are very apparent, so I'll address them first. They have many needs, they currently have 7 draft picks, no second round & two 7th round picks. Before the draft even begins, Pioli has strengthened the team by trading a single 2nd round pick for QB Matt Cassel & LB Mike Vrabel. This eliminated the QB need & lessened the linebacker want list by one. So what else do they need?
Linebacker-If they go to a 3-4 defense, they'll need at least 3 more linebackers now & at least 2 more down the road. It takes 8-9 linebackers to play this defense & the starting 4 need to be exceptional. That means they need 2 additional starters right now.
Defensive Line-They currently have Turk McBride, Tamba Hali, Brian Johnston, Alphonso Boone, Ron Edwards, Tank Tyler & Glenn Dorsey. It's hard for me to project any of these guys into a 3-4 defense because they played so poorly as a group last year & with the same line coach, Tim Krumrie, I'm not exactly brimming with confidence. I think Hali will have to shed 15 pounds, move to linebacker & give it a shot. I have no confidence in Tyler or Edwards in a new scheme. McBride & Johnston would have to get bigger & stronger to play DE in this defense, I don't know if they have the frame to add bulk & not lose whatever quickness they have. Boone could play DE, but I see him more as rotational relief, not your starter. That brings us to Dorsey. At 297 pounds & his frame, I can't see him gaining more than 6-8 pounds. He is barely 6' tall, so there's a real question about his size & this defense. Most nose tackles are huge, in the 6' 2" 325-lb range. Some are even bigger. Of the lighter nose tackles like Miami's Jason Ferguson or Dallas' Jay Ratliff, both barely 300 lbs, but both are 6' 4". Baltimore's Kelly Gregg is just about Dorsey's size & his game is similar to what Dorsey was at LSU, quick & disruptive from tackle to tackle. With proper coaching, I think Dorsey could be the same kind of force in the middle. Playing nose tackle takes extreme mental toughness to say nothing of the physical part of the position. They will have to add personnel here but other than a designated pass rusher, I truly don't know what the people they already have are capable of in this defense.
Center-Rudy Niswanger might make it as a backup guard, but he's not a starting center. Defenders get under his pads & consistently stand him up, losing all leverage. He's tall & not very wide for the position. Backup Wade Smith isn't an NFL player in my opinion, so drafting a center is a pretty high priority in my mind.
Right Tackle-Damion McIntosh was never going to be the answer at either tackle position & his performance last year was a career low. Herb Taylor might stick as a backup, but he has neither the size or aggressiveness to play this position. You can count the finesse players at right tackle on one hand, the position really calls for a road grader. Keeping Matt Cassel upright is a must & a QB's best friend can be a consistent running game.
Running Back-If Larry Johnson departs thru a trade or his release, this position will need a substantial upgrade. Jamaal Charles was drafted as a change of pace back & I saw very little to excite me last season. He had trouble hanging onto the ball too. Kolby Smith suffered a knee injury but at best he is the 3rd option at RB.
Guard-If Waters is traded this becomes a priority, if he stays, he & Mike Goff should form a pretty decent guard tandem.
Wide Receiver-Since they signed veteran Bobby Ingram to play the slot receiver, their other WR need would be for a guy with big speed. Someone who can stretch the field & move the free safety out of centerfield. Bowe, Gonzalez & Engram would all benefit greatly. It's much easier to throw over a dropping middle linebacker than a safety running downhill toward a route. Someone needs to emerge from the Mark Bradley/Will Franklin/Bobby Sippio trio as the 4th receiver.
Tight End-A blocking tight end is also a need. Ever since Jason Dunn left, we haven't had that extra blocker in the run game. Brad Cottam isn't physical enough & Mike Merritt was waived after a drug possession charge.
I've listed a need for 10 players, maybe as many as 12, the D-line puzzles me and we only have 7 draft picks. Get the picture? This is going to take a while. Trading down from the #3 overall spot might happen. They have to decide if taking Aaron Curry is better in the long run than getting 2 or 3 more players who, right now, don't carry the high grade that Curry has. I can tell you from the people they've brought in for private workouts, they will be prepared to trade down if the opportunity presents itself. They've had DE Paul Kruger, DE/OLB Connor Barwin, DE/OLB Everette Brown, DT Jarron Gilbert & OT Eben Britton come to K.C. for workouts & interviews. None of these prospects will go as high as the 3rd overall pick or last until our 3rd round pick, so you know they're getting prepared for anything.
I have an extensive Chiefs' draft cheat sheet, a listing of prospects who are capable of contributing both on & off the field. I'll post it after this Cutler drama shakes out, plus other things will pop up to change the draft. I'll post it 3 weeks from today, the 23rd.
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