What Scott Pioli will do in the NFL draft two weeks from now, is very difficult to predict. The one thing I will say, if history has taught us anything, Pioli will attempt to trade down out of the third overall pick to amass additional picks. The Chiefs currently have 7 picks, a 1,3,4,5,6 & (2) 7's. Their 2nd went to New England in the Matt Cassel/Mike Vrabel trade.

Other factors we don't know at this time are what is the future status of Tony Gonzalez, Brian Winters & Larry Johnson? If I had a vote in this one it would be keep him, keep him & release him.  I believe these decisions have already been made, even though they haven't made anything public. Another thing to ponder is how they see their current defensive linemen & how the 'keepers' project into the new 3-4 defensive scheme.  I have very little confidence in their veteran D-linemen, mostly because of their inept performance the last 2 seasons. I know personnel can excel in one scheme & become invisible in others, so I'm taking a wait & see attitude. If the Chiefs had decided to go to a 3-4 defense 4 years ago, would I have drafted Hali, McBride, Tyler & Dorsey? No, no, no, & no, these players don't project well into this defense in my opinion.

Who wants to move up in the draft order & why? I believe the Lions will select Georgia quarterback, Mathew Stafford, leaving only USC's Mark Sanchez as the other 'elite' QB prospect. Let me say right now, neither of these guys are close to where Falcon QB Matt Ryan was at the same point last year. K-State's Josh Freeman is slowly creeping up draftboards right now. I personally think he needs 2 years of superior pro coaching & then maybe he can excel at the position. So in this quarterback driven league, there are plenty of needy franchises looking for a new signal caller. In the 'definitely' column, San Francisco, Denver, the Jets, Tampa Bay & Minnesota. In the 'possibly' column, Seattle, Jacksonville & Washington. I don't see Sanchez waiting long to hear his name called, someone will step up early on, whether by using their regular pick or moving up to get him.

Two other positions that could cause some movement would be offensive tackle & wide receiver. Last year 8 tackles were selected in the first round. Jake Long (1st overall), Ryan Clady (12th) & Brandon Albert (15th) were better on draft day than any of the tackles this season. I know I'm going to hear "if Albert is so good, why was he a guard at Virginia, playing next to Eugene Monroe", 2009's #2 rated tackle. Albert came out as a junior, missed all of training camp & still showed he's a better tackle prospect playing on a truly crappy Chiefs' team. Monroe will never be as good as Albert, end of conversation. I really like Jason Smith of Baylor, but the rest leave me wanting more. There were no wide receivers taken in the first round last year but we could see as many as 6 go in the first round April 25th. Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree is being touted as the best receiver to come out since Larry Fitzgerald & many see him as the same type of player. He could  cause someone to pull the trigger to move into the top 5 picks.

Teams with multiple premium (rounds 1-3) picks would include Denver, New England, the Giants, Philadelphia, Detroit & Miami. Currently the Patriots have the following picks; 1,2,2,2 & (2) 3's and the Giants possess a 1,2,2 & (2) 3's. Denver has (2) 1's, a 2nd & (2) 3's. Both Philly & Detroit have 2 first round picks, so you can see there are teams with the ammo to move up, it just depends on how badly they want to make that happen. Let's examine what each of these teams need. Denver needs a QB & just about anything on the defensive side. New England is looking for linebackers, defensive backs & O-line depth, but I still see a move to get Julius Peppers with their bounty of picks. The Giants are pretty desperate for wide receivers & Philly needed a left tackle yesterday. Detroit needs everything, they're not moving, just drafting. I don't see Miami making a move either. I could see Minnesota trying to get into the Sanchez mix, it's about all they're lacking at this point, but dropping to the 22nd overall pick might be too far for Pioli, even if he receives picks 1-3 from the Vikes, they have no #4.  NFL G.M.'s use a draft pick/trade conversion chart which puts a numbered value on every pick in the draft & tho trades seldom add up the same on both sides numerically, they're normally very close.

The last factor regarding the Chiefs' first pick is the theory that Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry, the kid just about everybody thinks the Chiefs will take, can't rush the passer & the Chiefs desperately need a pass rusher. At Wake, he wasn't called upon to rush the passer, he is an excellent pass defender, as a junior Curry intercepted four passes & took three of them back for touchdowns. He could play any of the 4 linebacker positions, but can he rush the passer? There are other linebackers who have a history of getting to the QB, but they aren't close to Curry in most other areas.  There really isn't another linebacker or defensive end prospect rated high enough to be picked at #3 overall. When you have a top-5 pick, reaching shouldn't be an option, take a top-5 player. Don't reach for the 9th best guy because you need his position.  I also believe a team shouldn't take the 2nd best player at a position when picking in the top-5 unless it's a quarterback. Let's also remember it takes superior athletic skills  to play left tackle whereas a slower, mauling, road grader type can play on the right side.

Today I'm giving you a list of what I believe will be spots in the draft I have identified as tradedown possibilities & the corresponding prospects I have rated there that match up with the Chiefs' needs.

ROUND ONE
Pick:
 #3        Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest    
             Michael Crabtree  WR  Texas Tech   
             Jason Smith OT  Baylor   

#10        Aaron Maybin  LB  Penn State 
             Jeremy Maclin WR Mizzou

#12        any of the above that remain or Tyson Jackson   DE  LSU  
 
#18-#22 Everette Brown   DE/OLB   Florida State     
             Kenny Britt   WR   Rutgers

#28-#29  Eben Britton  OT  Arizona    
              Larry English  DE/OLB  N. Illinois   
              Alex Mack  C   California

ROUND TWO
Pick:
#33-#42   any of the above that remain,  Connor Barwin DE/OLB Cincinnati 
               Jarron Gilbert  DE San Jose St
#43-#53   any of the above that remain,  Eric Wood  C  Louisville   
               Clint Sintim   LB   Virginia
#54-#64   any of the above that remain,  Ron Brace   NT   Boston College   
               Phil Loadholt   OT  Oklahoma

ROUND THREE
Pick:            
#65-#82   any of the above that remain,  Andre Brown  RB   N. Carolina St.  
               Pat White  WR  West Virginia  
               Lawrence Sidbury  DE  Richmond   
               David Veikune   DE/OLB   Hawaii   
               Andy Levitre   G-C   Oregon State
               T.J. Lang   OL   Eastern Michigan     
 
#83-100   any of the above that remain,    Antoine Caldwell  C  Alabama  
               Louis Murphy  WR  Florida   
               Mike Thomas  WR  Arizona    
               Shonn Greene  RB  Iowa   
               Corey Irvin  DL  Georgi    
               Gerald Cadogan  OT  Penn State

ROUND FOUR
#101-136  any of the above that remain,   Jason Phillips  ILB  TCU   
               Jasper Brinkley ILB  South Carolina   
               Kraig Urbik   OL   Wisconsin   
               Anthony Hill  TE  North Carolina State  
               Mike Wallace WR  Mississippi   
               Deon Butler  WR  Penn State

ROUND FIVE
#137-173  any of the above that remain   Scott McKillop  ILB  Pittsburgh   
               Trevor Canfield  G  Cincinnati   
               Gerald McRath  ILB  Southern Mississippi   
               Greg Isdaner  OG  West  Virginia   
               Sebastian Vollmer  OT  Houston    
               Gartrell Johnson  RB  Colorado State   
               Richard Quinn  TE  North Carolina   
               Darryl Richard  DL  Georgia Tech    
               Jason Williams  OLB  Western Illinois

ROUND SIX
#174-209  any of the above that remain,    Blake Schlueter   C   TCU    
               Travis Bright   OG  BYU   
               Victor Butler   OLB  Oregon State   
               Zach Potter  DE  Nebraska 
               Edwin Williams  C  Maryland   
               Robert Brewster  OG  Ball State   
               Dallas Reynolds  OL  BYU  
               Taurus Johnson WR  S. Florida  
               Phillip Hunt  OLB  Houston   
               Roger Allen   OG   Missouri Western State  
               Quan Cosby  WR  Texas 

ROUND SEVEN
#210-256  any of the above that remain,     Robbie Felix  C  UTEP    
               Brandon Walker  OG   Oklahoma    
               Orion Martin  OLB  Virginia Tech   
               Terrence Knighton  DL  Temple   
               Marlon Favorite  NT  LSU    
               Rulon Davis  DL  California   
               Lyndon Murtha  OT  Nebraska  
               Vaughn Martin  DL  Western Ontario

UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS:
               any of the above that remain,     Nick Reed  OLB   Oregon   
               Brit Miller  ILB   Illinois
               Tim Henderson C-G  Northwestern State(La.)  
               Daniel Holtzclaw  ILB  Eastern Michigan
               Mike Rivera  OLB  Kansas   
               Joe Mortensen ILB  Kansas   
               Colin Brown  OT  Mizzou    
               Ian Johnson  RB  Boise State    
               Frantz Joseph  ILB  Florida Atlantic  
               Ryan Stanchek  OG  West Virginia   
               Darius Hill  TE  Ball State    
               Brandon Long DE/OLB  Michigan State
                   
Chiefs' fans will get at least one more pre-draft analysis.  Questions?  Comments?   Don't forget
to look in the archives for additional material.