AFC PREDICTIONS, FROM TOP TO BOTTOM
Since the season begins tomorrow night, what better time to stick my neck out, give you my predictions on how the AFC will fall & my reasons why.
AFC EAST
1. New England
New England became the 1st team in 24 years to win 11 games & not make the playoffs. I see the Patriots as the only playoff team to emerge from this division. Everyone is drooling over this team because Tom Brady is back. For my money he's the best quarterback in the entire league right now. But there's more to this team than Brady, Randy Moss & Wes Welker. The Patriots surrendered 48 sacks last season. Many of them could be attributed to Matt Cassel holding the ball too long too often. But the fact remains, this was the 5th highest sack total in the league. No one picks up the blitz better than Kevin Faulk, so a lot of the responsibility for this high sack total has to fall on the offensive line. The other concern for me is 6 new starters on defense. Some of the departed were right on schedule, like Rodney Harrison & Tedy Bruschi who both retired. But the trades of corner Ellis Hobbs, LB Mike Vrabel & DE Richard Seymour add up, as all three still have plenty in the tank. This defense also lost all-pro cornerback Assante Samuel to free agency before the '08 season. Outside linebacker, Shawn Crable, was put on I.R. for the 2nd consecutive season. They added Leigh Boldin & Shawn Springs at corner & ILB Jerod Mayo should become one of the better players at his position in the league, but I still see more questions than answers on this Patriot defense. Fortunately, Brady & company are capable putting up points in bunches, they may be in more shootouts than Patriot fans are accustomed to seeing. Not winning the division last season gave the Pats a little more favorable schedule, I can see 12 wins.
2. Miami
The Dolphins went from worst to first in '08, don't look for another playoff berth this season. A favorable schedule & winning 9 of their last 10 games put them into the post-season. Their schedule is much tougher this year & they certainly won't sneak up on anyone either. Chad Pennington played brilliantly down the stretch last season, as good as he ever played in his career. Chad still hasn't any arm strength & how long will it be before the Dolphins go to backup Chad Henne. One of the reasons for Miami's success last year was the "wildcat formation" they introduced to the league. It was wildly successful, the first game they brought it out, they upset the Patriots in Foxboro, 38-13. The team doesn't have a true #1 receiver, no one caught more than 56 passes. They do have a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield with Ronnie Brown & Rickey Williams. Pat White, drafted in the 2nd round will probably become the wildcat back. The defense was pretty stout, recording 40 sacks & 18 interceptions. High draft picks used for corners Vontae Davis & Sean Smith should help make the Phish that much tougher. Something in the neighborhood of 9-7 or 8-8.
3. New York Jets
The Jets will go with rookie Mark Sanchez at quarterback & he'll experience the usual pitfalls of a rookie QB. He throws the ball well & it appears the team & the fans are behind the move 100%. They better be, because QB isn't the only problem the Jets have. Their lack of a standout wide receiver limits what the offense can do. Brad Smith & Jerricho Cotchery are both possession types, but David Clowney & Chansi Stuckey played well in the preseason, so one of them might help stretch the field. The Jets should be able to run the ball with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington & rookie Shonn Greene give rookie head coach Rex Ryan a running game similar to the one in Baltimore, where Ryan coached the defense. Speaking of defense, Ryan is going to be hamstrung early on with his two best pass rushers on suspension. Calvin Pace & Shaun Ellis have to serve 4 & 1 game suspensions respectively. Adding to Ryan's challenge is the fact OLB Vernon Gholston, last years #6 overall pick, has been less than a dud, totaling 8 tackles the entire season & zero sacks. Starting the season at Houston, New England & Tennessee & at New Orleans makes things even tougher. I don't see the Jets winning more than 7 games, probably just 6.
4. Buffalo Bills
I think this will be the first team to implode in '09. I also think Dick Jauron will be the first coach canned. This team was overrated from the jump, they have multiple problems that start & finish with both lines. They traded their best offensive lineman, Jason Peters, a Pro Bowler. You have O-line problems & you trade your Pro Bowler? Sound like Kansas City's trade of Jared Allen? They cut LT Langston Walker after moving him from the right side. Rookie Andy Levitre is starting in spite of being consistently whipped in preseason. Running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first 3 games for a gun charge, T.O. is a time bomb, should I go on? Their schedule isn't too harsh, but I don't see more than 5-6 wins here.
NFC North
1. Pittsburgh
I think the defending Super Bowl Champions could actually be the first to win back-to-back titles since New England did it. The one thing that bothers me about the Steelers is their offensive tackles, Willie Colon, Max Starks & Trai Essex. They certainly aren't standouts & all have had injury issues. This line gave up 49 sacks last season, they're lucky they have such a tough quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. Rashard Mendenhall returns from injury to backup running back Willie Parker, a good thing. Hines Ward, one of my favorite wide receivers of all-time, is near the end of a Hall of Fame career, so Pittsburgh needs Limas Sweed to make major strides this season to help out along with Super Bowl hero, Santonio Holmes. The defense is frightening, NFL Defensive Player of the Year, James Harrison teams with Lamar Woodley as top-10 NFL sack leaders. Troy Polamalu is the best safety in the league for my money plus the unit is peppered with standout veterans that play so very well as a unit. Rookie defensive end, Ziggy Hood impressed in preseason action to move into a very good line rotation. Rookie sensation Stefan Logan moves in as the return man & kicker Jeff Reed is the perfect man to be playing on the crappy Heinz Field surface. Their schedule is very favorable, especially for a defending champ. I see 13 wins here & a deep playoff run.
2. Baltimore
Much like the Dolphins, the Ravens snuck up on many of their opponents last year & like the Dolphins, I don't see that scenario repeating in 2009. I do like the Ravens to again make the playoffs as a wildcard team. Jim Harbaugh still has the 3-headed monster in the backfield with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee & Le'Ron McClain to provide a strong base to his offense. Second year QB Joe Flacco should only improve on his surprising first season. He could be limited by the receiving corps which is full of injury cases. But the strength of the Ravens was & is their defense. Led by future Hall of Famers Ray Lewis & Ed Reed, this unit did lose standout ILB Bart Scott to free agency. Cornerback could become a problem & Terrell Suggs needs some help in the pass rush, possibly rookie Paul Kruger. Their road schedule is brutal with trips to San Diego, New England, Minnesota, Green Bay & Pittsburgh, plus Chicago, Indy & Pittsburgh in Baltimore. In spite of the questions, I still see the Ravens winning 10 games.
3. Cincinnati
I see the Bengals making a major jump in the win column this season. QB Carson Palmer returns from an elbow injury that limited him to only 4 games last year. When healthy, Palmer is in my top-10 QB's to be sure. The O-line's success will depend heavily on the very strange rookie, Andre Smith. His broken foot & late camp arrival may keep him from playing early on, but the Bengals need him badly. The rest of the line is pretty mediocre, they might start fellow rookie Jonathan Luigs at center. Cincy is loaded at wide receiver with headcase Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, Chris Henry & Andre Caldwell. Throw in rookie TE Chase Coffman & their have a stout receiving corps. Unfortunately they lost both tight ends Reggie Kelly & Ben Utecht for the season with camp injuries. Both were mainly blockers, something Coffman knows little about. Cedric Benson & DeDe Dorsey will platoon at running back. Cincy's front 7 has the chance of being pretty good. Linebacker Keith Rivers returns from injured reserve in his rookie year & teams with fellow Trojan Rey Maualuga & Dhani Jones to form a linebacking crew with great potential. Robert Geathers remains as the lone pass rush threat, something the 17 sack Bengals have to improve. I see the Bengals doubling their 4-win total of last season.
4. Cleveland
This isn't a good team new coach Eric Mangini inherits & I don't know if he's the guy to dig them out of the hole. I'm not a fan. The quarterback competition between Derek Anderson & Brady Quinn has been temporarily settled with Quinn starting this Sunday. I'm not totally sold on either QB. The running back situation isn't much better, the aging Jamal Lewis is near the end & can't carry the load by himself anymore. Rookie James Davis played quite a bit in preseason, but I'm not impressed, he wasn't a tough yardage runner at Clemson, he's going to become one suddenly playing in Cleveland? Braylon Edwards can be a Pro Bowler at wide receiver or he can absolutely break your heart. He led the league in dropped passes. He followed up his monster 80-catch, 16-touchdown year in '07 with 55 receptions & a paltry 3 touchdowns. Quite a comedown. A rookie, either Brian Robiskie or Mohamed Massaquoi should start opposite Edwards. They do have a stud pair on the left side of their O-line with Joe Thomas & Eric Steinbach, rookie Alex Mack looks to start at center, but the trouble begins on the injury-riddled right side composed of Pork Chop Womack & John St. Clair. The defensive front 7 doesn't scare anybody, NT Shaun Rogers runs hot & cold in performance & attitude, the Browns recorded only 17 sacks last year. The secondary hawks the ball pretty well & Joshua Cribbs is a feared return man. Middle of the road schedule should produce 6 wins.
AFC South
1. Tennessee
I see the Titans winning this division in a squeaker, mainly because of their defense. Losing DT Albert Haynesworth was huge, but this very well coached unit is fairly deep with impact players. Their 44 sacks & 20 interceptions makes my point. Yes, Haynesworth was a big part of this, but this is still a fine defense. Quarterback Kerry Collins returns for his 15th season & he should have better support this season. The Titans signed speedster Nate Washington in free agency & drafted Kenny Britt in the 1st round in hopes of finding a counterpart for Justin Gage at wide receiver. Gage missed a lot of playing time to injury last year. TE Bo Scaife is also a major part of the passing game & the offensive line is excellent. The "thunder & lightening" running back tandem of Chris Johnson & LenDale White accounted for 2001 yards & 24 touchdowns. In spite of their tough road schedule, the Titans look like an 11-win team to me.
2.Indianapolis
Colts have won 12 games or more 6 consecutive years. Don't see it in '09. Way too many questions in this edition of the Colts. Marvin Harrison is gone & I don't think Anthony Gonzalez is a realistic replacement for Harrison's production. Reggie Wayne returns on the other side & TE Dallas Clark is awesome in the slot, but Gonzalez or rookie Austin Collie don't look like the answer, at least not this season. Peyton Manning is as good as anybody, but for the first time, his offensive line has questions. Left tackle Tony Ugoh was so disappointing in the preseason, he was benched. His linemate, Ryan Lilja is injured again & the other guard, Mike Pollack, looked as bad as he did as a rookie last year. RB Joseph Addai hopes to stay injury free but if he can't, rookie Donald Brown should be a very adequate replacement. Safety Bob Sanders, probably the most important guy on this defense, will not play the first 5-6 games & that is why I make them 2nd best again in this division. Ten wins.
3. Houston
Many people were pretty hopped up about the Texans, I'm not one of them. One simple reason, quarterback Matt Schaub can't stay healthy & I can't see Rex Grossman or Dan Orlovsky subbing well enough to make the Texans a playoff team. The season opens Sunday & once again, Schaub is questionable with an ankle sprain. The 1-2 punch of Steve Slaton & Chris Brown is sort of a poor man's substitute for the twosome Tennessee has. Wide receiver Andre Johnson led the league in receiving with 115 catches for an astounding 1,575 yards & 8 touchdowns. TE Owen Daniels moves the chains & little known Kevin Walter also caught 8 touchdowns. The offensive line is just adequate in pass protection, one of the reasons Schaub is always hurt. The defense is led by Mario Williams, a top sacker & tough run defender. Antonio Smith came over from Arizona & rookie Connor Barwin can bring some pass rush too. Number 1 pick Brian Cushing should be a great compliment to MLB DeMeco Ryans, a tackling machine. Disgruntled corner Dunta Robinson just reported last week & the Texans should be thrilled, he one of the tops at his position. Houston's special teams are way above average as well. Because of Schaub's history, I can't see any improvement from their 8 wins last season.
4. Jacksonville
The Jaguars up & down recent history of win 12, win 8, win 11 & win 5 last year, looks to me to be another down season. Season ending injuries to their interior lineman on offense spelled doom last year. The Jags have kinda lost their way, lost their identity & it may take more than one down year to get their mojo back. The franchise is also struggling with poor attendance due to the poor economy in Florida. They're facing a TV blackout in every home game. Owner Wayne Weaver is committed to Jacksonville & is trying to right the ship. Coach Jack Del Rio could help immensely by putting a winning team on the field, but I just don't think they have the talent to win 9 games. The offense has nearly zero depth. None at wideout, only a small school rookie in the backfield to backup Maurice Jones-Drew, two rookies starting at tackle & a QB tandem of David Garrard & Luke McKown. The line surrendered 42 sacks. The defense isn't nearly as physical as it once was & since I believe this unit set the tone for the whole team, it's now become a major reason for their downturn. Can't see more than 6 wins.
AFC West
1. San Diego
In the no-brainer category, I have the Chargers the best team in the worst division in the NFL. Tho a Norv Turner coached team could implode at anytime, I think they're still good enough to win this pathetic division. They managed but 8 wins last year winning it, they can certainly do it again in a division that has 3 new head coaches on teams that won a combined 15 games. There's a lot to like about the Chargers, they have an explosive offense led by an accurate passer, Phillip Rivers & a running tandem of LaDainian Tomlinson & Darren Sproles. They can score & they can play some defense too. Their secondary is very good with good depth. Their sack total dropped to just 28, but maniac OLB Shawne Merriman missed most of the year & he's averaged 13 sacks a season since being drafted in '05. Rookie Larry English was drafted as insurance in case Merriman gets injured/suspended or they decide to part ways with him in the off-season. English looks to be a formidable pass rusher too. The one big loss was DE Igor Olshansky, who will be replaced by 3rd year man Ryon Bingham. Excellent special teams only add to their advantage over their divisional opponents. Road schedule is a mine field tho, at Pittsburgh(lotta bad memories there), at the Giants, at Dallas & at Tennessee. Still should win 11 games in this lame division.
2. Kansas City
This more of a default pick than anything. The Chiefs look to have a much better defense than either Oakland or Denver, so they should be in more games with a chance to snatch a extra win. I have serious doubts about their offense because of the porous offensive line & the lack of talent at wide receiver & tight end. If Larry Johnson gets hurt, their running game will be non-existent. With the changes Todd Haley has implemented, I expect the offense to play better, especially at quarterback, than they showed in the preseason. I still don't see them being anything better than in the bottom third of the league offensively. Defensively, I expect their record breaking sack total of 10, to be about 25. I expect their linebacking crew of Vrabel, Mays, Beisel & Hali to surprise people with their play. I didn't say Derrick Johnson because Johnson has been demoted & unlike Dwayne Bowe, I don't think he gets it. If he doesn't, he'll stay in Haley's doghouse. I expect the defensive line to hold their ground in the run game & for the defense to not be gashed with big gainers. How Glenn Dorsey competes will be of interest to all Chiefs' fans. I think Tank Tyler will get more playing time on the nose & he could make some noise. The secondary is the strongest part of the unit, Brandon Flowers just keeps getting better & better. Everyone was shocked when safety Bernard Pollard was cut, but he wasn't claimed by anyone, so how good was he? The first 8 games on the schedule are brutal, opportunities for wins could be limited to Oakland & Jacksonville. The second half of the season has more winnable games with Oakland, Denver twice, Cleveland & Buffalo. That's if Cassel & LJ are still standing at that point. Both kickers should have fine seasons, but the return game is a constant adventure & I don't mean that in a good way. How much better will Kansas City be? Can they win more than the 2 games Todd Haley said 22 guys off the street could win? Yes, how about 5?
3.(tie) Denver
Another bad team, another new head coach. Out with Mike Shanahan, in with Josh McDaniel, out with Jay Cutler, in with Kyle Orton. See why I have the Broncos down for half their '08 win total? It is paramount the Broncos resolve their strife with wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Either sign this guy or tell him he'll be traded after the season, but he must play for Denver to be somewhat competitive. If Eddie Royal & Brandon Stokley are the lone pass receiving threats, Kyle Orton is in for a long first season in Denver. Rookie running back Knowshon Moreno needs to get up to speed ASAP, stay healthy & be productive as both of his backups, Correll Buckhalter & LaMont Jordan, are over 30 & haven't played a full season in years. The Bronco offensive line is a good zone-blocker gang with LT Ryan Clady a future all-pro. Where everything goes sour is on the defensive line & the linebacking corps. Not good, not good at all. Elvis Dumervil is the lone impact player of the front seven. The DB's are good with a chance to be great, but they'll need a pass rush to help out, all-pro Brian Dawkins joins Denver's secondary. The special teams are below average, like the rest of the team. Tough year at Mile High, 4 wins.
4.(tie) Oakland
This ranking is based more on the ineptness of this franchise than on it's talent level & expectations. It has been called "the biggest clown car in the NFL" by PFT.com's Tom Curran. I couldn't agree more. This team screws up more often than any franchise in football. They blow more trades, they blow more draft picks, they blow more money on crappy talent & they buzz thru coaching staffs at a record rate. How about 8 head coaches in 13 years? And how about 9 different starting quarterbacks in the last 6 years? See a pattern? "Commitment to Excellence", you have to be kidding. More like "Commitment to Chaos" or "Dedicated to Failure". Anyway, the Raiders have a quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, who isn't a franchise QB, but they've got about $40 million invested in him, so he stays as the starter. The wide receivers have been very disappointing, led by #7 overall pick, Darrius Heyward-Bey. Like in college, he doesn't consistently catch the ball, how do you pick a guy who can't make the ACC all-conference team with the 7th pick in the entire draft? Well, you're the Raiders, that's how you do it. A very questionable offensive line blocks for a trio of talented running backs led by Darren McFadden. The line gives up sacks in bunches & collects penalties at an even higher rate. The defense is in transition. They traded for all-pro Richard Seymour, but he has refused to report so far. Apparently not wanting to ride in the clown car. Greg Ellis was also obtained in a trade & was assigned the defensive right end position, a place he's never played, for 12 years he's always stood up at linebacker. Another confusing move. They traded their most consistent pass rusher, Derrick Burgess & still don't know how to get any kind of production out of another #7 overall pick in the draft, safety Michael Huff. The Raiders have the highest paid punter & place kicker in the league. In the case of the punter, Shane Lechler, it's appropriate, with Sebastian Janikowski, it's ridiculous. If it appears I'm ripping on the Raiders, it's because they deserve it, years of terrible management, awful drafting & very poor player discipline got them to where they are currently, one of the league's worst franchises.
To recap my predictions, my division winners are New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee & San Diego. My wild card teams are Baltimore & Indianapolis. I see the Steelers going back to the Super Bowl, they're simply the most well rounded team. It's hard to bet against New England, but their defensive questions lead me to believe the Steelers can repeat as AFC Champions.
My NFC predictions to come on Friday.
AFC EAST
1. New England
New England became the 1st team in 24 years to win 11 games & not make the playoffs. I see the Patriots as the only playoff team to emerge from this division. Everyone is drooling over this team because Tom Brady is back. For my money he's the best quarterback in the entire league right now. But there's more to this team than Brady, Randy Moss & Wes Welker. The Patriots surrendered 48 sacks last season. Many of them could be attributed to Matt Cassel holding the ball too long too often. But the fact remains, this was the 5th highest sack total in the league. No one picks up the blitz better than Kevin Faulk, so a lot of the responsibility for this high sack total has to fall on the offensive line. The other concern for me is 6 new starters on defense. Some of the departed were right on schedule, like Rodney Harrison & Tedy Bruschi who both retired. But the trades of corner Ellis Hobbs, LB Mike Vrabel & DE Richard Seymour add up, as all three still have plenty in the tank. This defense also lost all-pro cornerback Assante Samuel to free agency before the '08 season. Outside linebacker, Shawn Crable, was put on I.R. for the 2nd consecutive season. They added Leigh Boldin & Shawn Springs at corner & ILB Jerod Mayo should become one of the better players at his position in the league, but I still see more questions than answers on this Patriot defense. Fortunately, Brady & company are capable putting up points in bunches, they may be in more shootouts than Patriot fans are accustomed to seeing. Not winning the division last season gave the Pats a little more favorable schedule, I can see 12 wins.
2. Miami
The Dolphins went from worst to first in '08, don't look for another playoff berth this season. A favorable schedule & winning 9 of their last 10 games put them into the post-season. Their schedule is much tougher this year & they certainly won't sneak up on anyone either. Chad Pennington played brilliantly down the stretch last season, as good as he ever played in his career. Chad still hasn't any arm strength & how long will it be before the Dolphins go to backup Chad Henne. One of the reasons for Miami's success last year was the "wildcat formation" they introduced to the league. It was wildly successful, the first game they brought it out, they upset the Patriots in Foxboro, 38-13. The team doesn't have a true #1 receiver, no one caught more than 56 passes. They do have a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield with Ronnie Brown & Rickey Williams. Pat White, drafted in the 2nd round will probably become the wildcat back. The defense was pretty stout, recording 40 sacks & 18 interceptions. High draft picks used for corners Vontae Davis & Sean Smith should help make the Phish that much tougher. Something in the neighborhood of 9-7 or 8-8.
3. New York Jets
The Jets will go with rookie Mark Sanchez at quarterback & he'll experience the usual pitfalls of a rookie QB. He throws the ball well & it appears the team & the fans are behind the move 100%. They better be, because QB isn't the only problem the Jets have. Their lack of a standout wide receiver limits what the offense can do. Brad Smith & Jerricho Cotchery are both possession types, but David Clowney & Chansi Stuckey played well in the preseason, so one of them might help stretch the field. The Jets should be able to run the ball with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington & rookie Shonn Greene give rookie head coach Rex Ryan a running game similar to the one in Baltimore, where Ryan coached the defense. Speaking of defense, Ryan is going to be hamstrung early on with his two best pass rushers on suspension. Calvin Pace & Shaun Ellis have to serve 4 & 1 game suspensions respectively. Adding to Ryan's challenge is the fact OLB Vernon Gholston, last years #6 overall pick, has been less than a dud, totaling 8 tackles the entire season & zero sacks. Starting the season at Houston, New England & Tennessee & at New Orleans makes things even tougher. I don't see the Jets winning more than 7 games, probably just 6.
4. Buffalo Bills
I think this will be the first team to implode in '09. I also think Dick Jauron will be the first coach canned. This team was overrated from the jump, they have multiple problems that start & finish with both lines. They traded their best offensive lineman, Jason Peters, a Pro Bowler. You have O-line problems & you trade your Pro Bowler? Sound like Kansas City's trade of Jared Allen? They cut LT Langston Walker after moving him from the right side. Rookie Andy Levitre is starting in spite of being consistently whipped in preseason. Running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first 3 games for a gun charge, T.O. is a time bomb, should I go on? Their schedule isn't too harsh, but I don't see more than 5-6 wins here.
NFC North
1. Pittsburgh
I think the defending Super Bowl Champions could actually be the first to win back-to-back titles since New England did it. The one thing that bothers me about the Steelers is their offensive tackles, Willie Colon, Max Starks & Trai Essex. They certainly aren't standouts & all have had injury issues. This line gave up 49 sacks last season, they're lucky they have such a tough quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. Rashard Mendenhall returns from injury to backup running back Willie Parker, a good thing. Hines Ward, one of my favorite wide receivers of all-time, is near the end of a Hall of Fame career, so Pittsburgh needs Limas Sweed to make major strides this season to help out along with Super Bowl hero, Santonio Holmes. The defense is frightening, NFL Defensive Player of the Year, James Harrison teams with Lamar Woodley as top-10 NFL sack leaders. Troy Polamalu is the best safety in the league for my money plus the unit is peppered with standout veterans that play so very well as a unit. Rookie defensive end, Ziggy Hood impressed in preseason action to move into a very good line rotation. Rookie sensation Stefan Logan moves in as the return man & kicker Jeff Reed is the perfect man to be playing on the crappy Heinz Field surface. Their schedule is very favorable, especially for a defending champ. I see 13 wins here & a deep playoff run.
2. Baltimore
Much like the Dolphins, the Ravens snuck up on many of their opponents last year & like the Dolphins, I don't see that scenario repeating in 2009. I do like the Ravens to again make the playoffs as a wildcard team. Jim Harbaugh still has the 3-headed monster in the backfield with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee & Le'Ron McClain to provide a strong base to his offense. Second year QB Joe Flacco should only improve on his surprising first season. He could be limited by the receiving corps which is full of injury cases. But the strength of the Ravens was & is their defense. Led by future Hall of Famers Ray Lewis & Ed Reed, this unit did lose standout ILB Bart Scott to free agency. Cornerback could become a problem & Terrell Suggs needs some help in the pass rush, possibly rookie Paul Kruger. Their road schedule is brutal with trips to San Diego, New England, Minnesota, Green Bay & Pittsburgh, plus Chicago, Indy & Pittsburgh in Baltimore. In spite of the questions, I still see the Ravens winning 10 games.
3. Cincinnati
I see the Bengals making a major jump in the win column this season. QB Carson Palmer returns from an elbow injury that limited him to only 4 games last year. When healthy, Palmer is in my top-10 QB's to be sure. The O-line's success will depend heavily on the very strange rookie, Andre Smith. His broken foot & late camp arrival may keep him from playing early on, but the Bengals need him badly. The rest of the line is pretty mediocre, they might start fellow rookie Jonathan Luigs at center. Cincy is loaded at wide receiver with headcase Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, Chris Henry & Andre Caldwell. Throw in rookie TE Chase Coffman & their have a stout receiving corps. Unfortunately they lost both tight ends Reggie Kelly & Ben Utecht for the season with camp injuries. Both were mainly blockers, something Coffman knows little about. Cedric Benson & DeDe Dorsey will platoon at running back. Cincy's front 7 has the chance of being pretty good. Linebacker Keith Rivers returns from injured reserve in his rookie year & teams with fellow Trojan Rey Maualuga & Dhani Jones to form a linebacking crew with great potential. Robert Geathers remains as the lone pass rush threat, something the 17 sack Bengals have to improve. I see the Bengals doubling their 4-win total of last season.
4. Cleveland
This isn't a good team new coach Eric Mangini inherits & I don't know if he's the guy to dig them out of the hole. I'm not a fan. The quarterback competition between Derek Anderson & Brady Quinn has been temporarily settled with Quinn starting this Sunday. I'm not totally sold on either QB. The running back situation isn't much better, the aging Jamal Lewis is near the end & can't carry the load by himself anymore. Rookie James Davis played quite a bit in preseason, but I'm not impressed, he wasn't a tough yardage runner at Clemson, he's going to become one suddenly playing in Cleveland? Braylon Edwards can be a Pro Bowler at wide receiver or he can absolutely break your heart. He led the league in dropped passes. He followed up his monster 80-catch, 16-touchdown year in '07 with 55 receptions & a paltry 3 touchdowns. Quite a comedown. A rookie, either Brian Robiskie or Mohamed Massaquoi should start opposite Edwards. They do have a stud pair on the left side of their O-line with Joe Thomas & Eric Steinbach, rookie Alex Mack looks to start at center, but the trouble begins on the injury-riddled right side composed of Pork Chop Womack & John St. Clair. The defensive front 7 doesn't scare anybody, NT Shaun Rogers runs hot & cold in performance & attitude, the Browns recorded only 17 sacks last year. The secondary hawks the ball pretty well & Joshua Cribbs is a feared return man. Middle of the road schedule should produce 6 wins.
AFC South
1. Tennessee
I see the Titans winning this division in a squeaker, mainly because of their defense. Losing DT Albert Haynesworth was huge, but this very well coached unit is fairly deep with impact players. Their 44 sacks & 20 interceptions makes my point. Yes, Haynesworth was a big part of this, but this is still a fine defense. Quarterback Kerry Collins returns for his 15th season & he should have better support this season. The Titans signed speedster Nate Washington in free agency & drafted Kenny Britt in the 1st round in hopes of finding a counterpart for Justin Gage at wide receiver. Gage missed a lot of playing time to injury last year. TE Bo Scaife is also a major part of the passing game & the offensive line is excellent. The "thunder & lightening" running back tandem of Chris Johnson & LenDale White accounted for 2001 yards & 24 touchdowns. In spite of their tough road schedule, the Titans look like an 11-win team to me.
2.Indianapolis
Colts have won 12 games or more 6 consecutive years. Don't see it in '09. Way too many questions in this edition of the Colts. Marvin Harrison is gone & I don't think Anthony Gonzalez is a realistic replacement for Harrison's production. Reggie Wayne returns on the other side & TE Dallas Clark is awesome in the slot, but Gonzalez or rookie Austin Collie don't look like the answer, at least not this season. Peyton Manning is as good as anybody, but for the first time, his offensive line has questions. Left tackle Tony Ugoh was so disappointing in the preseason, he was benched. His linemate, Ryan Lilja is injured again & the other guard, Mike Pollack, looked as bad as he did as a rookie last year. RB Joseph Addai hopes to stay injury free but if he can't, rookie Donald Brown should be a very adequate replacement. Safety Bob Sanders, probably the most important guy on this defense, will not play the first 5-6 games & that is why I make them 2nd best again in this division. Ten wins.
3. Houston
Many people were pretty hopped up about the Texans, I'm not one of them. One simple reason, quarterback Matt Schaub can't stay healthy & I can't see Rex Grossman or Dan Orlovsky subbing well enough to make the Texans a playoff team. The season opens Sunday & once again, Schaub is questionable with an ankle sprain. The 1-2 punch of Steve Slaton & Chris Brown is sort of a poor man's substitute for the twosome Tennessee has. Wide receiver Andre Johnson led the league in receiving with 115 catches for an astounding 1,575 yards & 8 touchdowns. TE Owen Daniels moves the chains & little known Kevin Walter also caught 8 touchdowns. The offensive line is just adequate in pass protection, one of the reasons Schaub is always hurt. The defense is led by Mario Williams, a top sacker & tough run defender. Antonio Smith came over from Arizona & rookie Connor Barwin can bring some pass rush too. Number 1 pick Brian Cushing should be a great compliment to MLB DeMeco Ryans, a tackling machine. Disgruntled corner Dunta Robinson just reported last week & the Texans should be thrilled, he one of the tops at his position. Houston's special teams are way above average as well. Because of Schaub's history, I can't see any improvement from their 8 wins last season.
4. Jacksonville
The Jaguars up & down recent history of win 12, win 8, win 11 & win 5 last year, looks to me to be another down season. Season ending injuries to their interior lineman on offense spelled doom last year. The Jags have kinda lost their way, lost their identity & it may take more than one down year to get their mojo back. The franchise is also struggling with poor attendance due to the poor economy in Florida. They're facing a TV blackout in every home game. Owner Wayne Weaver is committed to Jacksonville & is trying to right the ship. Coach Jack Del Rio could help immensely by putting a winning team on the field, but I just don't think they have the talent to win 9 games. The offense has nearly zero depth. None at wideout, only a small school rookie in the backfield to backup Maurice Jones-Drew, two rookies starting at tackle & a QB tandem of David Garrard & Luke McKown. The line surrendered 42 sacks. The defense isn't nearly as physical as it once was & since I believe this unit set the tone for the whole team, it's now become a major reason for their downturn. Can't see more than 6 wins.
AFC West
1. San Diego
In the no-brainer category, I have the Chargers the best team in the worst division in the NFL. Tho a Norv Turner coached team could implode at anytime, I think they're still good enough to win this pathetic division. They managed but 8 wins last year winning it, they can certainly do it again in a division that has 3 new head coaches on teams that won a combined 15 games. There's a lot to like about the Chargers, they have an explosive offense led by an accurate passer, Phillip Rivers & a running tandem of LaDainian Tomlinson & Darren Sproles. They can score & they can play some defense too. Their secondary is very good with good depth. Their sack total dropped to just 28, but maniac OLB Shawne Merriman missed most of the year & he's averaged 13 sacks a season since being drafted in '05. Rookie Larry English was drafted as insurance in case Merriman gets injured/suspended or they decide to part ways with him in the off-season. English looks to be a formidable pass rusher too. The one big loss was DE Igor Olshansky, who will be replaced by 3rd year man Ryon Bingham. Excellent special teams only add to their advantage over their divisional opponents. Road schedule is a mine field tho, at Pittsburgh(lotta bad memories there), at the Giants, at Dallas & at Tennessee. Still should win 11 games in this lame division.
2. Kansas City
This more of a default pick than anything. The Chiefs look to have a much better defense than either Oakland or Denver, so they should be in more games with a chance to snatch a extra win. I have serious doubts about their offense because of the porous offensive line & the lack of talent at wide receiver & tight end. If Larry Johnson gets hurt, their running game will be non-existent. With the changes Todd Haley has implemented, I expect the offense to play better, especially at quarterback, than they showed in the preseason. I still don't see them being anything better than in the bottom third of the league offensively. Defensively, I expect their record breaking sack total of 10, to be about 25. I expect their linebacking crew of Vrabel, Mays, Beisel & Hali to surprise people with their play. I didn't say Derrick Johnson because Johnson has been demoted & unlike Dwayne Bowe, I don't think he gets it. If he doesn't, he'll stay in Haley's doghouse. I expect the defensive line to hold their ground in the run game & for the defense to not be gashed with big gainers. How Glenn Dorsey competes will be of interest to all Chiefs' fans. I think Tank Tyler will get more playing time on the nose & he could make some noise. The secondary is the strongest part of the unit, Brandon Flowers just keeps getting better & better. Everyone was shocked when safety Bernard Pollard was cut, but he wasn't claimed by anyone, so how good was he? The first 8 games on the schedule are brutal, opportunities for wins could be limited to Oakland & Jacksonville. The second half of the season has more winnable games with Oakland, Denver twice, Cleveland & Buffalo. That's if Cassel & LJ are still standing at that point. Both kickers should have fine seasons, but the return game is a constant adventure & I don't mean that in a good way. How much better will Kansas City be? Can they win more than the 2 games Todd Haley said 22 guys off the street could win? Yes, how about 5?
3.(tie) Denver
Another bad team, another new head coach. Out with Mike Shanahan, in with Josh McDaniel, out with Jay Cutler, in with Kyle Orton. See why I have the Broncos down for half their '08 win total? It is paramount the Broncos resolve their strife with wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Either sign this guy or tell him he'll be traded after the season, but he must play for Denver to be somewhat competitive. If Eddie Royal & Brandon Stokley are the lone pass receiving threats, Kyle Orton is in for a long first season in Denver. Rookie running back Knowshon Moreno needs to get up to speed ASAP, stay healthy & be productive as both of his backups, Correll Buckhalter & LaMont Jordan, are over 30 & haven't played a full season in years. The Bronco offensive line is a good zone-blocker gang with LT Ryan Clady a future all-pro. Where everything goes sour is on the defensive line & the linebacking corps. Not good, not good at all. Elvis Dumervil is the lone impact player of the front seven. The DB's are good with a chance to be great, but they'll need a pass rush to help out, all-pro Brian Dawkins joins Denver's secondary. The special teams are below average, like the rest of the team. Tough year at Mile High, 4 wins.
4.(tie) Oakland
This ranking is based more on the ineptness of this franchise than on it's talent level & expectations. It has been called "the biggest clown car in the NFL" by PFT.com's Tom Curran. I couldn't agree more. This team screws up more often than any franchise in football. They blow more trades, they blow more draft picks, they blow more money on crappy talent & they buzz thru coaching staffs at a record rate. How about 8 head coaches in 13 years? And how about 9 different starting quarterbacks in the last 6 years? See a pattern? "Commitment to Excellence", you have to be kidding. More like "Commitment to Chaos" or "Dedicated to Failure". Anyway, the Raiders have a quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, who isn't a franchise QB, but they've got about $40 million invested in him, so he stays as the starter. The wide receivers have been very disappointing, led by #7 overall pick, Darrius Heyward-Bey. Like in college, he doesn't consistently catch the ball, how do you pick a guy who can't make the ACC all-conference team with the 7th pick in the entire draft? Well, you're the Raiders, that's how you do it. A very questionable offensive line blocks for a trio of talented running backs led by Darren McFadden. The line gives up sacks in bunches & collects penalties at an even higher rate. The defense is in transition. They traded for all-pro Richard Seymour, but he has refused to report so far. Apparently not wanting to ride in the clown car. Greg Ellis was also obtained in a trade & was assigned the defensive right end position, a place he's never played, for 12 years he's always stood up at linebacker. Another confusing move. They traded their most consistent pass rusher, Derrick Burgess & still don't know how to get any kind of production out of another #7 overall pick in the draft, safety Michael Huff. The Raiders have the highest paid punter & place kicker in the league. In the case of the punter, Shane Lechler, it's appropriate, with Sebastian Janikowski, it's ridiculous. If it appears I'm ripping on the Raiders, it's because they deserve it, years of terrible management, awful drafting & very poor player discipline got them to where they are currently, one of the league's worst franchises.
To recap my predictions, my division winners are New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee & San Diego. My wild card teams are Baltimore & Indianapolis. I see the Steelers going back to the Super Bowl, they're simply the most well rounded team. It's hard to bet against New England, but their defensive questions lead me to believe the Steelers can repeat as AFC Champions.
My NFC predictions to come on Friday.
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