NFC PREDICTIONS, FROM TOP TO BOTTOM
NFC East
1. New York Giants
This was a tough choice between the Eagles & the G-Men, but it came down to defense & New York has, what I believe, the 2nd best defense in the NFC. They are one season removed from the franchise's third Super Bowl title, so except for the wide receiver position, most of the pieces are still in place. The Giants faded last season for 2 reasons, the Plaxico Burress debacle & injuries along the defensive front. Needless to say Burress is gone, so is the other starter, Amani Toomer, hopefully replaced by vets Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith & Sinorice Moss plus rookies Hakeem Nicks & Ramses Barden.The Giants want Nicks to succeed in a big way, he had a coupe of big games during the preseason. Mike Boss, tho injured a lot, can be an effective chain-mover at tight end. Rookie Travis Beckum could contribute as well. Joining QB Eli Manning in the backfield will be monster back, Brandon Jacobs & his backup, Ahmad Bradshaw, all 3 very solid. The best part is they play behind a superior line, one of the 2 or 3 best in the entire league. If the receiving crew comes together & gives Manning several options, the offense will be fine. The defensive line that was injured so often in '08, has everybody back plus they added Chris Canty from Dallas & Rocky Bernard from Seattle, both longtime starters with their previous teams. The big news here is DE Osi Umenyiora is back & healthy, missing his pass rush off the edge was a major blow to this defense. Suffice to say the depth is good too. The linebacking is the weakest part of this unit, altho if rookie Clint Sintim makes the major contribution I think he will, they'll be fine. Sintim was a difference maker at Virginia, he's smart & driven. The secondary is rock solid led by corners Aaron Ross & Corey Webster. The special teams are good, but not great. Head Coach Tom Coughlin likes to run the ball & play defense, this team is built in that image. If the wideouts develop quickly, this team can be the class of the NFC. Outside of a very competitive division, possible bumps in the schedule are: at New Orleans & Minnesota, plus home games against San Diego & Atlanta. Looks like 11 wins from here.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The main reason I took the Giants over the Eagles in this division was defense, specifically a defense that no longer has safety Brian Dawkins, the longtime heart & soul of the unit, plus they lost their leader, the late Jim Johnson. Johnson's wild blitzing schemes were so different from the rest of the league, it was always a nightmare to prepare for Philadelphia. Now Sean McDermott has taken over as defensive coordinator & it looks very similar to Johnson's defenses. MLB Stewart Bradley has already been lost for the season & that is a blow that can't be fixed. Darren Howard led the team in sacks with 10 as a situational pass rusher, but Philly had 48 sacks last season & in true Jim Johnson fashion, they came from all over the defense. They have a solid secondary, lessened somewhat with the departure of Dawkins, but still a formidable group. Donovan McNabb wanted more weapons & they were delivered. First pick Jeremy Maclin can be a game changer as a wideout & a return man. Running back LeSean McCoy will move in as Brian Westbrook backup, they're very similar in size & style. Westbrook, an impact player who gets nicked up from time to time, is coming off ankle surgery. The receiver position is loaded like McNabb's never seen in his tenure in Philly. DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Jason Avant, Hank Baskett & the rookie Maclin form quite a unit. Sadly, Cornelius Ingram, drafted to fill the receiving tight end roll, blew up the same knee that cost him most of his senior year at Florida. Brent Celek didn't do much last season until the playoffs, when he went off big time. Depth at tight end is in short supply. This brings us back to Donovan McNabb. He wanted these toys, he got them, but he got something that could be a distraction, Michael Vick. The media circus that surrounds Vick got old during the preseason, how will it play in November? I think the Eagles are the 2nd best team in the NFC, unfortunately they play in the toughest division in the entire league. Their schedule could also be a problem, the bulk of their tough games are in an 8-week span from October 28th to December 13th when they play Washington twice, the Giants twice, Dallas, at Atlanta, at San Diego & at Chicago. Still I can envision 10 wins & a playoff berth for Philly.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys open the season in their new stadium September 20th vs. the Giants. The "Jones-Mahal" might be more exciting to fans than the Cowboys. Coach Wade Phillips is truly on the hot seat & the wide receiving corps doesn't provide any excitement & I wonder how much production they'll add to the offense. Jerry Jones gave a #1, #3 & a #6 for Roy Williams at mid-season last year. Williams chipped in 19 receptions & 1 touchdown, hardly inspiring. Tight end Jason Witten is QB Tony Romo's favorite target, but as any Kansas City fan will tell you, you can't win playoff games with a tight end as the main focus of your passing game. Witten only caught 4 TD's. RB Felix Jones returns from injury & that's good on 2 fronts, he's a dangerous kickoff returner & he's a great change-of-pace backup to Marion Barber. Romo's consistency has been, well it's been inconsistent O.K.? He made some of the dumber mistakes I saw all season. The offensive line wasn't always there for Romo either, left tackle Flozell Adams is near the end of his career & right guard Leonard Davis had some terrible outings pas blocking for Romo. The defensive line is very stout, even with the loss of Chris Canty to division rival New York. Marcus Spears, Jay Ratliff & the newly acquired Igor Olshansky do what is required in a 3-4 scheme, they swallow up blockers so the linebackers can make the plays.That linebacking crew is one of the best, led by DeMarcus Ware. Ware led the entire league in sacks with 20 & he's just now entering his prime. The secondary is a shaky with little depth. For all the owner's bluster, I don't think his team is anything better than 9-7 at best.
4. Washington Redskins
The Redskins were 8-8 last season, they added all-world defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth & they still have the look of a .500 team. I thought QB Jason Campbell looked better in the preseason, he may come at this season with a big chip on his shoulder & that should be a good thing. Campbell never played with urgency or an abundance of self-confidence. After it became public knowledge his owner, Dan Snyder, was in the thick of the Jay Cutler negotiations & later attempted to trade up to draft Mark Sanchez, Campbell displayed real character & class in spite of knowing he really wasn't wanted by the owner. How well his line holds up & if his receiving corps will mature, Campbell could have a good season & erase Snyder's doubts. Devin Thomas & Malcolm Kelly need to start strong because Santana Moss & tight end Chris Cooley definitely need some assistance. Haynesworth instantly makes the defense better, he's the best pass rushing tackle in the league, plus he clogs about a 10-foot space in the line against the run. Number 1 draft pick Brian Orapko was selected for his pass rush abilities & I think defensive coordinator, Greg Blache, will move him around looking for matchups he can win right away. The Washington pass rush last season just wasn't there, which put a huge strain of a damn good secondary. I'm not too impressed with the linebackers, but with the addition of Haynesworth & Orapko, the pass rush could be substantially better, helping the secondary. This team is still 4 or 5 players away from being a serious contender, but they could be good enough to pass Dallas if everything falls into place.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
In a division where not a lot of defense is played, I'll take the team with the best quarterback & passing game. You can eat up chunks of yardage in the passing game & you're never out of a game as long as your QB can stand back there behind a good line & throw the ball downfield. The Saints fit that description to a 'T'. An offensive minded head coach in Sean Payton, a quarterback who threw for over 5,000 yards & 34 touchdowns, a bevy of talented wide receivers, a couple of productive tight ends & a very solid offensive line. The only question mark about this offense is at running back, where three injury-plagued backs vie for carries. Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas & Mike Bell can all be effective in this offense, they just need for 2 of them to stay healthy every week. The defensive line is decent & should be better if ends Charles Grant & Will Smith can stay active. They both are contesting a questionable banned substance suspension. A diuretic is the source of the beef, so far they won every challenge, but it's not over. The linebackers are very ordinary & the secondary, which was a mess last year, should be better with #1 pick Malcolm Jenkins & Tracy Porter returning from a broken wrist. Jabari Greer was the lone standout back there, he returns as well. Gray-beard safety Darren Sharper knows exactly where the ball is going, he's just not fast enough anymore to do much about it. Ten wins makes the Saints a playoff team again.....finally.
2. Carolina Panthers
The hangover from the extreme beatdown the Panthers suffered on their home field by Arizona seemingly isn't gone. How it will affect QB Jake Delhomme is very important. He had a career meltdown in the playoff game & he also hasn't looked like his old self so far in '09. There is no depth behind him, so if he continues to be in this funk, they're doomed. Carolina has the league's best one-two punch in the backfield with DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, over 2,350 yards & 28 touchdowns between them. Steve Smith remains as one of the league's best at wide receiver but he needs help. Muhsin Muhammad enters his 14th season & he was never quick or fast & Dwayne Jarrett has been a major disappointment. The tight end position is also a problem as they don't have a productive guy on the roster, 39 receptions for 400 yards & 2 touchdowns are the total at this position. The O-line is very good & except for RG Keydrick Vincent, a 9-year vet, this is a very young line with a great future. The defensive line lost their interior run-stopper, Maake Kemoeatu in training camp & this will be a problem. This defense was already being gashed for big yardage too often. They franchised DE Julius Peppers for a cool $16 million & I wonder how his motivation is. Jon Beason is a good middle linebacker but he's about it. The secondary, with corners Chris Gamble & Richard Marshall might not be as good because of pass rush problems. Very tough schedule makes me think the Panthers will be no better than 8 wins.
3, Atlanta Falcons
Sadly, I think Tony Gonzalez will feel right at home with the Atlanta Falcons, literally. The 2009 edition of the Falcons should remind him of the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs team he was a major part of. Great offense & no defense. That's the story of the Falcons right now. A promising quarterback in Matt Ryan, a very productive runner in Michael "the Burner" Turner, wideouts Roddy White & Michael Jenkins & of course, Gonzalez himself. The Falcons are going to be in a lot of shootout games & they have a brutal schedule. There's a reason they chose 7 defenders out of 8 picks in April's draft. Their defense needs rookies Peria Jerry, a defensive tackle & Lawrence Sidbury, a pass rush specialist, to make an early impact if they're to be even adequate. Punt returner & #3 receiver, Harry Douglas, is gone for the season with a knee injury & they will miss him. The Falcons have never had back-to-back winning seasons in their 43-year history, I don't see this defense changing that trend. A pretty tough schedule adds to that, 7 or 8 wins, sorry Tony.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This figures to be one of the worst teams in football this season. Rookie coach Raheem Morris inherits a team with little talent across the board. Castoff QB Byron Leftwich is the starter, along with Cadillac Williams at running back, he's had both knees rebuilt in the last 2 years. Wide receiver Antonio Bryant finally blossomed with a huge year, but the Bucs slapped the franchise tag on him & he was pretty upset about it, his attitude has been his major problem since he entered the league 7 years ago. Speaking of bad attitudes, the Bucs traded for tight end Kellen Winslow, a longtime head case & injury magnet. He'll go well with the other TE, Jeremy Stevens, a guy who has consistently disappointed & gotten into trouble on & off the field. The offensive line is way below acceptable & when you look at the defensive line, it's no better. Middle linebacker Barrett Ruud is the lone standout defender. Cornerback Aquib Talib has great natural ability but zero discipline & very little focus. This might be the worst team in football for '09, it looks like 3 wins & a top-5 draft pick for the Bucs.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
Surprised? No Favre-led Vikes, no Cutler-led Bears? Nope. I'm going with the best offense in the division, a revamped defense led by coordinator Dom Capers that features the best secondary in the division. This Aaron Rogers-led offense played 12 series in the preseason & they scored 12 times. Yes, it's preseason, but they were so impressive, they looked better than they ever looked in '08. This should be the year Rogers moves into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. He has a slew of capable receivers at both wide receiver & tight end. Running back Ryan Grant has rushed for 2,100 yards the last 2 seasons in 27 starts. Brandon Jackson is a good backup & the line, tho rebuilt, should be dependable. The new 3-4 defense might take a few games to take hold but the Pack has the personnel to move to this defense. Including #1 pick, B.J. Raji, they should easily have a 6-man rotation on the line. The linebacking should be solid, it could be exceptional if former DE Aaron Kampman can make the transition to outside linebacker & still remain an effective edge pass rusher. The secondary is very tough & experienced, they were 3rd in the league with 22 interceptions, returning 7 of them for touchdowns. Their November 1st matchup with the Vikings at Lambeau Field will be the most hyped game of the year. Their schedule is better than either the Bears or Vikings so let's say the Packers will win 10 games.
2. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have the best defense in the NFC, the best running back in the entire NFL, a decent line & a 40-year old quarterback. They also have special teams that gave up 6 touchdowns. Their leading receiver caught but 48 passes & the runner-up was their third down back with 45. Rookie Percy Harvin should help if he can stay on the field or they don't get too gimmicky with him. No need to discuss the defense, it's awesome, best defensive front in the league. So what can we expect from Brett Favre? I think first of all, handing the ball to Adrian Peterson is a no-brainer, he led the league in rushing with 1,760 yards. A running game like that makes everybody look better. But can Favre stay healthy? I think he will playing behind that line, not having to carry the team. If he gets hurt, this "all in" move by coach Brad Childress will backfire in a big way & will cost him his job. Ten wins for Minnesota too & the other wildcard playoff spot.
3. Chicago Bears
Yes they traded for quarterback Jay Cutler, yes they have all-purpose running back Matt Forte & yes they have a defense with some big names. But they don't have much in the way of wide receivers for Cutler to utilize. Their offensive line is shaky, all-pro defensive tackle Tommie Harris doesn't look like his knee has healed & their secondary doesn't impress me at all. Every starter was injured & missed playing time, 3 of them required surgery. Tight end Greg Olsen looks to be the Bear receiver who benefits most from the acquisition of Cutler, he could have an 80+ reception season. Making Devin Hester a full time wideout is a mistake, he's just too valuable as a kick returner. I could see him as a 3rd or 4th receiver, but not a number 1. It's too much to learn & I certainly question how effective he can be. If Harris doesn't return to form, this defense will struggle. He makes it go, when healthy, he's one of the top-3 tackles in the NFC. I think Bear fans are going to be disappointed with 8 wins.
4. Detroit Lions
I'll skip all the applicable clichés regarding the Lions' 0-16 record, suffice to say they were bad & they will be better. When will they win? How many will they win? Well they have 2 pretty bad lines, their running backs are way below average, they start a rookie QB, their secondary is mediocre, get the picture? On the plus side, they have a superior wide receiver in Calvin Johnson who caught 78 passes for a whopping 1,331 yards & 12 touchdowns. He doesn't have much help tho. Their linebackers should be the strongest part of the defense, just not strong enough. Matthew Stafford starts at quarterback. He'll have his moments, he's extremely talented with an elite arm, but he'll struggle, especially in this division. Throw in games with Pittsburgh, Baltimore & New Orleans & it will be a tough campaign. How tough? About 2 wins tough.
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks
The weakest division in the NFC is a hard one to handicap. This pick is more about the projected fall of Arizona than it is an endorsement of the Seahawks. I like Matt Hasselback, back from back problems at quarterback, I like their receiving corps of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch & rookie Deon Butler. Tight end John Carlson blossomed last season & should get even better with a healthy Hasselback. The line depends on the health of left tackle, perennial all-pro Walter Jones. His knee hasn't responded yet to off season surgery. There's a big drop off from Jones & in a spot they can't afford lesser play. The running game isn't spectacular, but Julius Jones & super-vet Edgerrin James should be more than adequate. If Patrick Kearney can stay healthy, their pass rush will be O.K. DTs Brandon Mebane & Colin Cole do a good job of occupying blockers so their linebacking crew can make plays. The linebackers are very good, blitzer Leroy Hill, run stopper Lofa Tatupu & super-rookie Aaron Curry should make this unit one of the league's best. The secondary absorbed some injuries this summer with Marcus Trufant being sidelined, a real loss. Some tough road trips to Green Bay, Dallas, Houston, Minnesota & Indianapolis. I think 9 wins will be good enough to clinch this division crown.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The defending NFC champs winning less than 9 games? That's how I see it & I've got some ammunition to back me up. The Cardinals haven't had back-to-back winning years since they moved from St Louis. Super Bowl losers haven't made the playoffs in the following season 8 of the last 10 years. The Cardinals gave up more touchdown passes(36) than any other team in the league. Any team. The Cards gave up 426 points, 28th in the league. They also have the worst running game in the league, ranked dead last. They drafted the oft-injured Beanie Wells, but if the line can't improve their run blocking, Wells won't be as much of an impact as they thought when they picked him. Quarterback Kurt Warner is 38 & is very fragile. He & the wide receiver trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin & Steve Breaston are the offense. Boldin's unhappy with his contract & has hamstring issues for about the 10th time & Breaston is hurt as well. I didn't see where the defense improved & losing Todd Haley to the Chiefs is a loss Warner & TE Leonard Pope have bemoaned during the preseason. All this considered, I make the Cardinals winners of 7 games.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Tough as nails coach Mike Singletary didn't get a quarterback in the off season or a big time wideout because their first draft pick, Michael Crabtree, has his head firmly lodged where the sun don't shine & remains the only unsigned player from April's draft. Even if he signs today, his impact will be minimal. Singletary does have 3 good runners in Frank Gore, Michael Robinson & Glen Coffee. He'll need to run the ball, QB Shaun Hill, the weak pass blocking & the lackluster receiving corps scream for a good running game. Not surprisingly, a Hall of Fame linebacker head coach would have a very good group of linebackers.They're the strength of the defense. Another Singletary priority is good special teams & the Niners are very good in this part of the game. Still a lot of holes to fill, but a team that should play pretty disciplined football under Singletary & win 7 games.
4. St Louis Rams
This was one of the leagues worst teams last season, a team that could show real improvement in play but with their schedule, it will be hard to even double their wins of last year, which was only 2. Former Giant defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the Rams new head coach & look for the defense to play better immediately. Middle linebacker, rookie James Laurinaitis, will start & Spagnuolo has had nothing but good things to say about how quickly he's caught onto the job. Defensive tackle Adam Carriker, a former #1 pick who hasn't played up to expectations, went on I.R. last week & is lost for the season. Last year's #1 pick, Chris Long, was a little disappointing, hopefully he can step up his sack total from the 4 he recorded in '08. On offense it starts with Mark Bulger's return from injury, can he stay healthy? Free agent center Jason Brown & #1 pick, tackle Jason Smith should help keep him upright. RG Richie Incognito may have finally figured out he has some anger issues that translate into stupid penalties. He claims he's gotten himself under control & his temper won't be an issue. The Rams have 2 fine running backs in Steven Jones & Brian Leonard. They need to run the ball as much as possible, their receiving crew is devoid of NFL talent with the exception of Donnie Avery. Another tough season in the Edward Jones Dome, I say 3 wins.
Recapping my NFC predictions:
My division winners will be New York, New Orleans, Green Bay & Seattle
My wildcard picks are Philadelphia & Minnesota
I see the Giants going back to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years & winning.
1. New York Giants
This was a tough choice between the Eagles & the G-Men, but it came down to defense & New York has, what I believe, the 2nd best defense in the NFC. They are one season removed from the franchise's third Super Bowl title, so except for the wide receiver position, most of the pieces are still in place. The Giants faded last season for 2 reasons, the Plaxico Burress debacle & injuries along the defensive front. Needless to say Burress is gone, so is the other starter, Amani Toomer, hopefully replaced by vets Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith & Sinorice Moss plus rookies Hakeem Nicks & Ramses Barden.The Giants want Nicks to succeed in a big way, he had a coupe of big games during the preseason. Mike Boss, tho injured a lot, can be an effective chain-mover at tight end. Rookie Travis Beckum could contribute as well. Joining QB Eli Manning in the backfield will be monster back, Brandon Jacobs & his backup, Ahmad Bradshaw, all 3 very solid. The best part is they play behind a superior line, one of the 2 or 3 best in the entire league. If the receiving crew comes together & gives Manning several options, the offense will be fine. The defensive line that was injured so often in '08, has everybody back plus they added Chris Canty from Dallas & Rocky Bernard from Seattle, both longtime starters with their previous teams. The big news here is DE Osi Umenyiora is back & healthy, missing his pass rush off the edge was a major blow to this defense. Suffice to say the depth is good too. The linebacking is the weakest part of this unit, altho if rookie Clint Sintim makes the major contribution I think he will, they'll be fine. Sintim was a difference maker at Virginia, he's smart & driven. The secondary is rock solid led by corners Aaron Ross & Corey Webster. The special teams are good, but not great. Head Coach Tom Coughlin likes to run the ball & play defense, this team is built in that image. If the wideouts develop quickly, this team can be the class of the NFC. Outside of a very competitive division, possible bumps in the schedule are: at New Orleans & Minnesota, plus home games against San Diego & Atlanta. Looks like 11 wins from here.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The main reason I took the Giants over the Eagles in this division was defense, specifically a defense that no longer has safety Brian Dawkins, the longtime heart & soul of the unit, plus they lost their leader, the late Jim Johnson. Johnson's wild blitzing schemes were so different from the rest of the league, it was always a nightmare to prepare for Philadelphia. Now Sean McDermott has taken over as defensive coordinator & it looks very similar to Johnson's defenses. MLB Stewart Bradley has already been lost for the season & that is a blow that can't be fixed. Darren Howard led the team in sacks with 10 as a situational pass rusher, but Philly had 48 sacks last season & in true Jim Johnson fashion, they came from all over the defense. They have a solid secondary, lessened somewhat with the departure of Dawkins, but still a formidable group. Donovan McNabb wanted more weapons & they were delivered. First pick Jeremy Maclin can be a game changer as a wideout & a return man. Running back LeSean McCoy will move in as Brian Westbrook backup, they're very similar in size & style. Westbrook, an impact player who gets nicked up from time to time, is coming off ankle surgery. The receiver position is loaded like McNabb's never seen in his tenure in Philly. DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Jason Avant, Hank Baskett & the rookie Maclin form quite a unit. Sadly, Cornelius Ingram, drafted to fill the receiving tight end roll, blew up the same knee that cost him most of his senior year at Florida. Brent Celek didn't do much last season until the playoffs, when he went off big time. Depth at tight end is in short supply. This brings us back to Donovan McNabb. He wanted these toys, he got them, but he got something that could be a distraction, Michael Vick. The media circus that surrounds Vick got old during the preseason, how will it play in November? I think the Eagles are the 2nd best team in the NFC, unfortunately they play in the toughest division in the entire league. Their schedule could also be a problem, the bulk of their tough games are in an 8-week span from October 28th to December 13th when they play Washington twice, the Giants twice, Dallas, at Atlanta, at San Diego & at Chicago. Still I can envision 10 wins & a playoff berth for Philly.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys open the season in their new stadium September 20th vs. the Giants. The "Jones-Mahal" might be more exciting to fans than the Cowboys. Coach Wade Phillips is truly on the hot seat & the wide receiving corps doesn't provide any excitement & I wonder how much production they'll add to the offense. Jerry Jones gave a #1, #3 & a #6 for Roy Williams at mid-season last year. Williams chipped in 19 receptions & 1 touchdown, hardly inspiring. Tight end Jason Witten is QB Tony Romo's favorite target, but as any Kansas City fan will tell you, you can't win playoff games with a tight end as the main focus of your passing game. Witten only caught 4 TD's. RB Felix Jones returns from injury & that's good on 2 fronts, he's a dangerous kickoff returner & he's a great change-of-pace backup to Marion Barber. Romo's consistency has been, well it's been inconsistent O.K.? He made some of the dumber mistakes I saw all season. The offensive line wasn't always there for Romo either, left tackle Flozell Adams is near the end of his career & right guard Leonard Davis had some terrible outings pas blocking for Romo. The defensive line is very stout, even with the loss of Chris Canty to division rival New York. Marcus Spears, Jay Ratliff & the newly acquired Igor Olshansky do what is required in a 3-4 scheme, they swallow up blockers so the linebackers can make the plays.That linebacking crew is one of the best, led by DeMarcus Ware. Ware led the entire league in sacks with 20 & he's just now entering his prime. The secondary is a shaky with little depth. For all the owner's bluster, I don't think his team is anything better than 9-7 at best.
4. Washington Redskins
The Redskins were 8-8 last season, they added all-world defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth & they still have the look of a .500 team. I thought QB Jason Campbell looked better in the preseason, he may come at this season with a big chip on his shoulder & that should be a good thing. Campbell never played with urgency or an abundance of self-confidence. After it became public knowledge his owner, Dan Snyder, was in the thick of the Jay Cutler negotiations & later attempted to trade up to draft Mark Sanchez, Campbell displayed real character & class in spite of knowing he really wasn't wanted by the owner. How well his line holds up & if his receiving corps will mature, Campbell could have a good season & erase Snyder's doubts. Devin Thomas & Malcolm Kelly need to start strong because Santana Moss & tight end Chris Cooley definitely need some assistance. Haynesworth instantly makes the defense better, he's the best pass rushing tackle in the league, plus he clogs about a 10-foot space in the line against the run. Number 1 draft pick Brian Orapko was selected for his pass rush abilities & I think defensive coordinator, Greg Blache, will move him around looking for matchups he can win right away. The Washington pass rush last season just wasn't there, which put a huge strain of a damn good secondary. I'm not too impressed with the linebackers, but with the addition of Haynesworth & Orapko, the pass rush could be substantially better, helping the secondary. This team is still 4 or 5 players away from being a serious contender, but they could be good enough to pass Dallas if everything falls into place.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
In a division where not a lot of defense is played, I'll take the team with the best quarterback & passing game. You can eat up chunks of yardage in the passing game & you're never out of a game as long as your QB can stand back there behind a good line & throw the ball downfield. The Saints fit that description to a 'T'. An offensive minded head coach in Sean Payton, a quarterback who threw for over 5,000 yards & 34 touchdowns, a bevy of talented wide receivers, a couple of productive tight ends & a very solid offensive line. The only question mark about this offense is at running back, where three injury-plagued backs vie for carries. Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas & Mike Bell can all be effective in this offense, they just need for 2 of them to stay healthy every week. The defensive line is decent & should be better if ends Charles Grant & Will Smith can stay active. They both are contesting a questionable banned substance suspension. A diuretic is the source of the beef, so far they won every challenge, but it's not over. The linebackers are very ordinary & the secondary, which was a mess last year, should be better with #1 pick Malcolm Jenkins & Tracy Porter returning from a broken wrist. Jabari Greer was the lone standout back there, he returns as well. Gray-beard safety Darren Sharper knows exactly where the ball is going, he's just not fast enough anymore to do much about it. Ten wins makes the Saints a playoff team again.....finally.
2. Carolina Panthers
The hangover from the extreme beatdown the Panthers suffered on their home field by Arizona seemingly isn't gone. How it will affect QB Jake Delhomme is very important. He had a career meltdown in the playoff game & he also hasn't looked like his old self so far in '09. There is no depth behind him, so if he continues to be in this funk, they're doomed. Carolina has the league's best one-two punch in the backfield with DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, over 2,350 yards & 28 touchdowns between them. Steve Smith remains as one of the league's best at wide receiver but he needs help. Muhsin Muhammad enters his 14th season & he was never quick or fast & Dwayne Jarrett has been a major disappointment. The tight end position is also a problem as they don't have a productive guy on the roster, 39 receptions for 400 yards & 2 touchdowns are the total at this position. The O-line is very good & except for RG Keydrick Vincent, a 9-year vet, this is a very young line with a great future. The defensive line lost their interior run-stopper, Maake Kemoeatu in training camp & this will be a problem. This defense was already being gashed for big yardage too often. They franchised DE Julius Peppers for a cool $16 million & I wonder how his motivation is. Jon Beason is a good middle linebacker but he's about it. The secondary, with corners Chris Gamble & Richard Marshall might not be as good because of pass rush problems. Very tough schedule makes me think the Panthers will be no better than 8 wins.
3, Atlanta Falcons
Sadly, I think Tony Gonzalez will feel right at home with the Atlanta Falcons, literally. The 2009 edition of the Falcons should remind him of the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs team he was a major part of. Great offense & no defense. That's the story of the Falcons right now. A promising quarterback in Matt Ryan, a very productive runner in Michael "the Burner" Turner, wideouts Roddy White & Michael Jenkins & of course, Gonzalez himself. The Falcons are going to be in a lot of shootout games & they have a brutal schedule. There's a reason they chose 7 defenders out of 8 picks in April's draft. Their defense needs rookies Peria Jerry, a defensive tackle & Lawrence Sidbury, a pass rush specialist, to make an early impact if they're to be even adequate. Punt returner & #3 receiver, Harry Douglas, is gone for the season with a knee injury & they will miss him. The Falcons have never had back-to-back winning seasons in their 43-year history, I don't see this defense changing that trend. A pretty tough schedule adds to that, 7 or 8 wins, sorry Tony.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This figures to be one of the worst teams in football this season. Rookie coach Raheem Morris inherits a team with little talent across the board. Castoff QB Byron Leftwich is the starter, along with Cadillac Williams at running back, he's had both knees rebuilt in the last 2 years. Wide receiver Antonio Bryant finally blossomed with a huge year, but the Bucs slapped the franchise tag on him & he was pretty upset about it, his attitude has been his major problem since he entered the league 7 years ago. Speaking of bad attitudes, the Bucs traded for tight end Kellen Winslow, a longtime head case & injury magnet. He'll go well with the other TE, Jeremy Stevens, a guy who has consistently disappointed & gotten into trouble on & off the field. The offensive line is way below acceptable & when you look at the defensive line, it's no better. Middle linebacker Barrett Ruud is the lone standout defender. Cornerback Aquib Talib has great natural ability but zero discipline & very little focus. This might be the worst team in football for '09, it looks like 3 wins & a top-5 draft pick for the Bucs.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
Surprised? No Favre-led Vikes, no Cutler-led Bears? Nope. I'm going with the best offense in the division, a revamped defense led by coordinator Dom Capers that features the best secondary in the division. This Aaron Rogers-led offense played 12 series in the preseason & they scored 12 times. Yes, it's preseason, but they were so impressive, they looked better than they ever looked in '08. This should be the year Rogers moves into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. He has a slew of capable receivers at both wide receiver & tight end. Running back Ryan Grant has rushed for 2,100 yards the last 2 seasons in 27 starts. Brandon Jackson is a good backup & the line, tho rebuilt, should be dependable. The new 3-4 defense might take a few games to take hold but the Pack has the personnel to move to this defense. Including #1 pick, B.J. Raji, they should easily have a 6-man rotation on the line. The linebacking should be solid, it could be exceptional if former DE Aaron Kampman can make the transition to outside linebacker & still remain an effective edge pass rusher. The secondary is very tough & experienced, they were 3rd in the league with 22 interceptions, returning 7 of them for touchdowns. Their November 1st matchup with the Vikings at Lambeau Field will be the most hyped game of the year. Their schedule is better than either the Bears or Vikings so let's say the Packers will win 10 games.
2. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have the best defense in the NFC, the best running back in the entire NFL, a decent line & a 40-year old quarterback. They also have special teams that gave up 6 touchdowns. Their leading receiver caught but 48 passes & the runner-up was their third down back with 45. Rookie Percy Harvin should help if he can stay on the field or they don't get too gimmicky with him. No need to discuss the defense, it's awesome, best defensive front in the league. So what can we expect from Brett Favre? I think first of all, handing the ball to Adrian Peterson is a no-brainer, he led the league in rushing with 1,760 yards. A running game like that makes everybody look better. But can Favre stay healthy? I think he will playing behind that line, not having to carry the team. If he gets hurt, this "all in" move by coach Brad Childress will backfire in a big way & will cost him his job. Ten wins for Minnesota too & the other wildcard playoff spot.
3. Chicago Bears
Yes they traded for quarterback Jay Cutler, yes they have all-purpose running back Matt Forte & yes they have a defense with some big names. But they don't have much in the way of wide receivers for Cutler to utilize. Their offensive line is shaky, all-pro defensive tackle Tommie Harris doesn't look like his knee has healed & their secondary doesn't impress me at all. Every starter was injured & missed playing time, 3 of them required surgery. Tight end Greg Olsen looks to be the Bear receiver who benefits most from the acquisition of Cutler, he could have an 80+ reception season. Making Devin Hester a full time wideout is a mistake, he's just too valuable as a kick returner. I could see him as a 3rd or 4th receiver, but not a number 1. It's too much to learn & I certainly question how effective he can be. If Harris doesn't return to form, this defense will struggle. He makes it go, when healthy, he's one of the top-3 tackles in the NFC. I think Bear fans are going to be disappointed with 8 wins.
4. Detroit Lions
I'll skip all the applicable clichés regarding the Lions' 0-16 record, suffice to say they were bad & they will be better. When will they win? How many will they win? Well they have 2 pretty bad lines, their running backs are way below average, they start a rookie QB, their secondary is mediocre, get the picture? On the plus side, they have a superior wide receiver in Calvin Johnson who caught 78 passes for a whopping 1,331 yards & 12 touchdowns. He doesn't have much help tho. Their linebackers should be the strongest part of the defense, just not strong enough. Matthew Stafford starts at quarterback. He'll have his moments, he's extremely talented with an elite arm, but he'll struggle, especially in this division. Throw in games with Pittsburgh, Baltimore & New Orleans & it will be a tough campaign. How tough? About 2 wins tough.
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks
The weakest division in the NFC is a hard one to handicap. This pick is more about the projected fall of Arizona than it is an endorsement of the Seahawks. I like Matt Hasselback, back from back problems at quarterback, I like their receiving corps of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch & rookie Deon Butler. Tight end John Carlson blossomed last season & should get even better with a healthy Hasselback. The line depends on the health of left tackle, perennial all-pro Walter Jones. His knee hasn't responded yet to off season surgery. There's a big drop off from Jones & in a spot they can't afford lesser play. The running game isn't spectacular, but Julius Jones & super-vet Edgerrin James should be more than adequate. If Patrick Kearney can stay healthy, their pass rush will be O.K. DTs Brandon Mebane & Colin Cole do a good job of occupying blockers so their linebacking crew can make plays. The linebackers are very good, blitzer Leroy Hill, run stopper Lofa Tatupu & super-rookie Aaron Curry should make this unit one of the league's best. The secondary absorbed some injuries this summer with Marcus Trufant being sidelined, a real loss. Some tough road trips to Green Bay, Dallas, Houston, Minnesota & Indianapolis. I think 9 wins will be good enough to clinch this division crown.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The defending NFC champs winning less than 9 games? That's how I see it & I've got some ammunition to back me up. The Cardinals haven't had back-to-back winning years since they moved from St Louis. Super Bowl losers haven't made the playoffs in the following season 8 of the last 10 years. The Cardinals gave up more touchdown passes(36) than any other team in the league. Any team. The Cards gave up 426 points, 28th in the league. They also have the worst running game in the league, ranked dead last. They drafted the oft-injured Beanie Wells, but if the line can't improve their run blocking, Wells won't be as much of an impact as they thought when they picked him. Quarterback Kurt Warner is 38 & is very fragile. He & the wide receiver trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin & Steve Breaston are the offense. Boldin's unhappy with his contract & has hamstring issues for about the 10th time & Breaston is hurt as well. I didn't see where the defense improved & losing Todd Haley to the Chiefs is a loss Warner & TE Leonard Pope have bemoaned during the preseason. All this considered, I make the Cardinals winners of 7 games.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Tough as nails coach Mike Singletary didn't get a quarterback in the off season or a big time wideout because their first draft pick, Michael Crabtree, has his head firmly lodged where the sun don't shine & remains the only unsigned player from April's draft. Even if he signs today, his impact will be minimal. Singletary does have 3 good runners in Frank Gore, Michael Robinson & Glen Coffee. He'll need to run the ball, QB Shaun Hill, the weak pass blocking & the lackluster receiving corps scream for a good running game. Not surprisingly, a Hall of Fame linebacker head coach would have a very good group of linebackers.They're the strength of the defense. Another Singletary priority is good special teams & the Niners are very good in this part of the game. Still a lot of holes to fill, but a team that should play pretty disciplined football under Singletary & win 7 games.
4. St Louis Rams
This was one of the leagues worst teams last season, a team that could show real improvement in play but with their schedule, it will be hard to even double their wins of last year, which was only 2. Former Giant defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the Rams new head coach & look for the defense to play better immediately. Middle linebacker, rookie James Laurinaitis, will start & Spagnuolo has had nothing but good things to say about how quickly he's caught onto the job. Defensive tackle Adam Carriker, a former #1 pick who hasn't played up to expectations, went on I.R. last week & is lost for the season. Last year's #1 pick, Chris Long, was a little disappointing, hopefully he can step up his sack total from the 4 he recorded in '08. On offense it starts with Mark Bulger's return from injury, can he stay healthy? Free agent center Jason Brown & #1 pick, tackle Jason Smith should help keep him upright. RG Richie Incognito may have finally figured out he has some anger issues that translate into stupid penalties. He claims he's gotten himself under control & his temper won't be an issue. The Rams have 2 fine running backs in Steven Jones & Brian Leonard. They need to run the ball as much as possible, their receiving crew is devoid of NFL talent with the exception of Donnie Avery. Another tough season in the Edward Jones Dome, I say 3 wins.
Recapping my NFC predictions:
My division winners will be New York, New Orleans, Green Bay & Seattle
My wildcard picks are Philadelphia & Minnesota
I see the Giants going back to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years & winning.
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