MIZZOU @ NEVADA..........UPSET IN THE AIR?
The 3-0 Mizzou Tigers are a 7-point favorite for tonight's game in Reno with the 0-2 Nevada Wolfpack. No sweat right? Wrong. This is what a sport's gambler calls a 'trap game'. The Tigers overwhelmed Nevada last season, 69-17. Mizzou is coming off a 52-14 beatdown of Furman, the Wolfpack lost last Saturday at Colorado State. The Tigers' next game is against Nebraska in the Big-12 opener for both teams & a game that could be crucial in deciding who will prevail in the North Division. Looking ahead by the Tigers? Maybe.
Nevada's 0-2 start is somewhat disappointing, they lost opening day at Notre Dame, 35-0. But they can make everything all better tonight with a win on national television. I have no idea what the overall record for home underdogs is on national television, but I think it might surprise you. Home dogs very often have a very large bite.
Can Nevada win this game? Absolutely. QB Colin Kaepernick, RB's Vai Taua & Luke Lippencott are all big-time producers in Coach Chris Ault's 'Pistol Offense'. Kaepernick has thrown 41 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions the last 2 seasons. He & Taua combined for 2,651 yards on the ground last season with 32 touchdowns. Lippencott ran for 1,420 yards in '07. Both leading receivers graduated, but Chris Wellington was a large part of this offense last year with 623 yards receiving. The Wolfpack also has 2 outstanding pass rushing defensive ends, Dontay Moch & Kevin Basped. The two combined for 21 1/2 sacks & a whopping 35 1/2 tackles for loss in '08. Both are speed rushers who will see mostly man-for-man blocking schemes in the Missouri spread offense. The problem comes when they don't get to the passer, their defensive average of allowing 311 yards per game was the worst out of 120 FBS teams.
Can Mizzou blow Nevada out? Yes they can. They have a quarterback who's as big as the 2 pass rushers trying to bring him down. They have a quarterback who can throw the ball all over the yard on time & with accuracy. He's yet to throw an interception this season in 108 attempts. The Tigers tailback, Derrick Washington, has the size to break tackles & the deceptive speed to blow past defenders. All 3 starting wide receivers have been very productive in the 3 games prior to the tonight's game. But tackles Elvis Fisher & Dan Hoch must slow Moch & Basped & their pass rush off the edge.
Look for Mizzou to zone blitz Kaepernick, his line is a little shaky & he doesn't react well to people in his face. The Missouri front line has been very efficient getting penetration against the run as well as the pass. Look for defensive ends Aldon Smith & Jaquies Smith to make a major impact rushing the passer.
The way Joe Z. & I see this game, if Nevada is close at halftime, they'll be close in the 4th quarter. With the line at 7, I won't touch this one. Can't make a rock solid case for either team. Look for Mackey Stadium to be a very hostile environment tonight, for this, their home opener. There will be a few thousand Tiger fans, who should be vocal enough for the Mizzou players to know they're there. My prediction is MU 41 Nevada 24.
I just hope I can stay awake, I'm on less than 6 hours total sleep in two nights & I'm nodding off writing this blog. Recap & Saturday's preview later tonight.
Nevada's 0-2 start is somewhat disappointing, they lost opening day at Notre Dame, 35-0. But they can make everything all better tonight with a win on national television. I have no idea what the overall record for home underdogs is on national television, but I think it might surprise you. Home dogs very often have a very large bite.
Can Nevada win this game? Absolutely. QB Colin Kaepernick, RB's Vai Taua & Luke Lippencott are all big-time producers in Coach Chris Ault's 'Pistol Offense'. Kaepernick has thrown 41 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions the last 2 seasons. He & Taua combined for 2,651 yards on the ground last season with 32 touchdowns. Lippencott ran for 1,420 yards in '07. Both leading receivers graduated, but Chris Wellington was a large part of this offense last year with 623 yards receiving. The Wolfpack also has 2 outstanding pass rushing defensive ends, Dontay Moch & Kevin Basped. The two combined for 21 1/2 sacks & a whopping 35 1/2 tackles for loss in '08. Both are speed rushers who will see mostly man-for-man blocking schemes in the Missouri spread offense. The problem comes when they don't get to the passer, their defensive average of allowing 311 yards per game was the worst out of 120 FBS teams.
Can Mizzou blow Nevada out? Yes they can. They have a quarterback who's as big as the 2 pass rushers trying to bring him down. They have a quarterback who can throw the ball all over the yard on time & with accuracy. He's yet to throw an interception this season in 108 attempts. The Tigers tailback, Derrick Washington, has the size to break tackles & the deceptive speed to blow past defenders. All 3 starting wide receivers have been very productive in the 3 games prior to the tonight's game. But tackles Elvis Fisher & Dan Hoch must slow Moch & Basped & their pass rush off the edge.
Look for Mizzou to zone blitz Kaepernick, his line is a little shaky & he doesn't react well to people in his face. The Missouri front line has been very efficient getting penetration against the run as well as the pass. Look for defensive ends Aldon Smith & Jaquies Smith to make a major impact rushing the passer.
The way Joe Z. & I see this game, if Nevada is close at halftime, they'll be close in the 4th quarter. With the line at 7, I won't touch this one. Can't make a rock solid case for either team. Look for Mackey Stadium to be a very hostile environment tonight, for this, their home opener. There will be a few thousand Tiger fans, who should be vocal enough for the Mizzou players to know they're there. My prediction is MU 41 Nevada 24.
I just hope I can stay awake, I'm on less than 6 hours total sleep in two nights & I'm nodding off writing this blog. Recap & Saturday's preview later tonight.
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