COLLEGE PLAYS
SMU at Houston(-16 1/2)
SMU jumped out to a fast start last week versus Navy, but the Midshipmen wore them out in the 2nd half, winning 38-35. Saturday the Mustangs go from defensing the triple option to trying to stop the 2nd leading offense in the country. Houston's quarterback, Case Keenum, is in my top-5 for the Heisman Trophy & I can't see SMU holding the Cougars within 17 points, just like last week, they should win by 24, at least. This is my favorite play tomorrow.
Penn State at Michigan(+4 1/2)
I told you last night, Penn State hasn't won at Michigan since 1996. Penn State doesn't score a lot of points regardless of who or where they play. Their top 2 defenders, linebackers Sean Lee & Navarro Bowman have missed a lot of time with injuries & their status for Saturday is questionable. The Wolverines are tough in "The Big House" & I like getting 4 1/2 points. It will be my smallest play Saturday.
Oklahoma at Kansas(over 54 1/2)
This matchup last season was 45-31 OU. Kansas has a better offense this season & a worse defense. Bob Stoops has won every game the week after the Red River Shootout. OU's DeMarco Murray may not play & KU has had trouble running the ball, so I figure there will be at least 80 passes thrown in this game, which helps lengthen the game. I expect turnovers & a lot of points. Second favorite play of the day.
Boise State(-25) at Hawaii
The Broncos are about 40-points better than Hawaii. But the novelty of playing in Hawaii & the flying distance to get there brings the spread down. Hawaii is 0-3 in conference, 2-4 overall. This used to be a very tough trip coming over from the mainland, but since June Jones departed, the Rainbow Warriors are no longer a tough out. The 4th ranked Broncos won't overlook a single opponent as they try to become a BCS buster. This game doesn't start until 11 PM, so if I do well leading up to this kickoff, I'll play it, otherwise, I'll leave it alone. I've never been a 'bailout' bettor, trying to get even on the last game of the day or on Monday night. If the game warrants a wager in my eyes, I'll play it, but I don't flip a coin trying to get even.
I like Iowa a lot, but there are several trends in this game that have influenced me to stay off the Hawkeyes. Michigan State doesn't give up many points & they don't score a hell of a lot either. Iowa hasn't won at East Lansing since 1995. Michigan State beat Iowa last year in Iowa City. The Spartans lead the Big-10 in quarterback sacks. Iowa has won 11 straight & with a win on Saturday, could have the school's 1st 8-0 start. Iowa has also covered 10 of their last 11 road games. The game opened at pick 'em, but if the game swings toward State being favored, I will make a play on Iowa in a game that figures to be very close.
I like Oklahoma too, but with Bradford out, I can't lay 7 1/2 on the road against a ranked team. I think you're looking at a shootout here as I stated above.
I also considered Oregon State playing at USC & getting 21 points. It's a bad spot, a "sandwich" game, if you will. Their trip to Notre Dame & next week's showdown at Oregon are sandwiched around this game. The Beavers don't turn the ball over & they have great return teams. They run the ball well, but running it at USC can be a whole other thing. State has beaten USC 2 of the last 3 tries. The Trojans have won 21 straight in the Coliseum. They benched their starting center, Kristofer O'Dowd, for his disappointing play since returning from a dislocated kneecap. Too much going on here for me to get involved. I think USC wins the game, but by less than the 21 most likely.
I hope we've heard the last of all the "Bobby Bowden should be fired' crap for a while. Bowden's Florida State Seminoles, down 24-6 late in the 3rd quarter on the road vs. North Carolina, came roaring back to win 30-27. Bowden correctly said after the game, "the first 2 1/2 quarters were about as bad as I've ever coached here at Florida State. The last 20 minutes really made me proud."
San Diego has had the flu strike their locker room. LaDanian Tomlinson & 3 others missed practice yesterday with flu-like symptoms. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie injured his knee in yesterday's practice & will have an MRI this afternoon. With that news I doubt he'll be in the lineup when the very desperate Chargers visit the Chiefs Sunday.
SMU jumped out to a fast start last week versus Navy, but the Midshipmen wore them out in the 2nd half, winning 38-35. Saturday the Mustangs go from defensing the triple option to trying to stop the 2nd leading offense in the country. Houston's quarterback, Case Keenum, is in my top-5 for the Heisman Trophy & I can't see SMU holding the Cougars within 17 points, just like last week, they should win by 24, at least. This is my favorite play tomorrow.
Penn State at Michigan(+4 1/2)
I told you last night, Penn State hasn't won at Michigan since 1996. Penn State doesn't score a lot of points regardless of who or where they play. Their top 2 defenders, linebackers Sean Lee & Navarro Bowman have missed a lot of time with injuries & their status for Saturday is questionable. The Wolverines are tough in "The Big House" & I like getting 4 1/2 points. It will be my smallest play Saturday.
Oklahoma at Kansas(over 54 1/2)
This matchup last season was 45-31 OU. Kansas has a better offense this season & a worse defense. Bob Stoops has won every game the week after the Red River Shootout. OU's DeMarco Murray may not play & KU has had trouble running the ball, so I figure there will be at least 80 passes thrown in this game, which helps lengthen the game. I expect turnovers & a lot of points. Second favorite play of the day.
Boise State(-25) at Hawaii
The Broncos are about 40-points better than Hawaii. But the novelty of playing in Hawaii & the flying distance to get there brings the spread down. Hawaii is 0-3 in conference, 2-4 overall. This used to be a very tough trip coming over from the mainland, but since June Jones departed, the Rainbow Warriors are no longer a tough out. The 4th ranked Broncos won't overlook a single opponent as they try to become a BCS buster. This game doesn't start until 11 PM, so if I do well leading up to this kickoff, I'll play it, otherwise, I'll leave it alone. I've never been a 'bailout' bettor, trying to get even on the last game of the day or on Monday night. If the game warrants a wager in my eyes, I'll play it, but I don't flip a coin trying to get even.
I like Iowa a lot, but there are several trends in this game that have influenced me to stay off the Hawkeyes. Michigan State doesn't give up many points & they don't score a hell of a lot either. Iowa hasn't won at East Lansing since 1995. Michigan State beat Iowa last year in Iowa City. The Spartans lead the Big-10 in quarterback sacks. Iowa has won 11 straight & with a win on Saturday, could have the school's 1st 8-0 start. Iowa has also covered 10 of their last 11 road games. The game opened at pick 'em, but if the game swings toward State being favored, I will make a play on Iowa in a game that figures to be very close.
I like Oklahoma too, but with Bradford out, I can't lay 7 1/2 on the road against a ranked team. I think you're looking at a shootout here as I stated above.
I also considered Oregon State playing at USC & getting 21 points. It's a bad spot, a "sandwich" game, if you will. Their trip to Notre Dame & next week's showdown at Oregon are sandwiched around this game. The Beavers don't turn the ball over & they have great return teams. They run the ball well, but running it at USC can be a whole other thing. State has beaten USC 2 of the last 3 tries. The Trojans have won 21 straight in the Coliseum. They benched their starting center, Kristofer O'Dowd, for his disappointing play since returning from a dislocated kneecap. Too much going on here for me to get involved. I think USC wins the game, but by less than the 21 most likely.
I hope we've heard the last of all the "Bobby Bowden should be fired' crap for a while. Bowden's Florida State Seminoles, down 24-6 late in the 3rd quarter on the road vs. North Carolina, came roaring back to win 30-27. Bowden correctly said after the game, "the first 2 1/2 quarters were about as bad as I've ever coached here at Florida State. The last 20 minutes really made me proud."
San Diego has had the flu strike their locker room. LaDanian Tomlinson & 3 others missed practice yesterday with flu-like symptoms. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie injured his knee in yesterday's practice & will have an MRI this afternoon. With that news I doubt he'll be in the lineup when the very desperate Chargers visit the Chiefs Sunday.
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