BLIND SQUIRREL FINDS AN ACORN, IT'S A 73% NFL TREND IN '09
While I was going over the scores, stats & bad memories from Sunday's pro football slate, I began to notice a trend. I went back & investigated all 7 weeks of the NFL season & I've found a trend that's 33-9 so far this season. That's 73%, it won't get me the Nobel Prize for mathematics, as soon as Michelle Obama balances their checkbook, I've heard she's a cinch, but it's nothing to sneeze at either. What is it you might ask? Well here it is, it's really quite simple.
Parity in the NFL is dead, I believe there are 'haves' & 'have-nots' in the NFL plus a few teams that could be 'on the bubble' between both. I see the 'haves' as: Indy, New England, New Orleans, Denver, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, NYG, Philly, Baltimore, Green Bay, Cincy, Houston, Miami, Arizona & Atlanta, 15 in all. These teams can reasonably expect to compete with each other week to week & for a playoff spot.
I see the 'have-nots' as St Louis, Tampa, Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee & Cleveland, 9 in all. These nine teams have a combined 9 wins between them, they are the 'have-nots'. Of those 9 wins, 6 of them are against other 'have-nots'. They have no expectation of a playoff spot. Any arguments so far?
I see the 'bubble teams' as Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, San Diego, San Fran, Buffalo, Jax & the Jets, 8 all told. Teams that are above the have-nots, but not serious playoff contenders.
Since week one, in games between a 'have' & a 'have-not', the 'haves' are 25-5 against the pointspread, only losing 1 game straight up. That was Philly at Oakland last week. Since week one the 'bubble teams' are 8-4 against the pointspread, losing only 1 game straight up. That loss was Cleveland beating Buffalo 6-3 in week 5.
So armed with this knowledge, next week I'll look for some 'have' & 'have-not' matchups. I'm going to stop beating my brains out trying to handicap every game. Just look for the right matchup & leave the rest alone. Even the double-digit favorites, long the 'unbettable line' in pro football gambling, are 10-3 against the spread, none losing straight up. It's been a long time since there were so many really bad teams at one time, maybe it's time to take advantage of it. Trends usually level out, but keep an eye on this one the next few weeks.
For the weekend I split on 4 games, winning with Boise State & U. of Houston, but losing the OU/KU total & Atlanta on Sunday. The loss was vig only, but a loss nevertheless.
Parity in the NFL is dead, I believe there are 'haves' & 'have-nots' in the NFL plus a few teams that could be 'on the bubble' between both. I see the 'haves' as: Indy, New England, New Orleans, Denver, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, NYG, Philly, Baltimore, Green Bay, Cincy, Houston, Miami, Arizona & Atlanta, 15 in all. These teams can reasonably expect to compete with each other week to week & for a playoff spot.
I see the 'have-nots' as St Louis, Tampa, Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee & Cleveland, 9 in all. These nine teams have a combined 9 wins between them, they are the 'have-nots'. Of those 9 wins, 6 of them are against other 'have-nots'. They have no expectation of a playoff spot. Any arguments so far?
I see the 'bubble teams' as Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, San Diego, San Fran, Buffalo, Jax & the Jets, 8 all told. Teams that are above the have-nots, but not serious playoff contenders.
Since week one, in games between a 'have' & a 'have-not', the 'haves' are 25-5 against the pointspread, only losing 1 game straight up. That was Philly at Oakland last week. Since week one the 'bubble teams' are 8-4 against the pointspread, losing only 1 game straight up. That loss was Cleveland beating Buffalo 6-3 in week 5.
So armed with this knowledge, next week I'll look for some 'have' & 'have-not' matchups. I'm going to stop beating my brains out trying to handicap every game. Just look for the right matchup & leave the rest alone. Even the double-digit favorites, long the 'unbettable line' in pro football gambling, are 10-3 against the spread, none losing straight up. It's been a long time since there were so many really bad teams at one time, maybe it's time to take advantage of it. Trends usually level out, but keep an eye on this one the next few weeks.
For the weekend I split on 4 games, winning with Boise State & U. of Houston, but losing the OU/KU total & Atlanta on Sunday. The loss was vig only, but a loss nevertheless.
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