MORE BOWL THOUGHTS
If you're watching Air Force outplay Houston, Mizzou fans should be prepared for more of the same as far as gameplan goes. The service academies don't have the size, speed & strength of their opponents, so they have find ways to even things out so they can be competitive. The service teams don't make many mental mistakes, they don't commit many penalties, they play very, very disciplined defense. They stay home, protect their gap responsibility, seldom giving a cutback lane to opposing runners. They are prepared well & respond to their coaches as well as any teams in the country. On offense, they use a lot of mis-direction & because of their size, speed & strength, academy teams use the cut block almost exclusively. That means they block below the waist, not illegal, but defensive players hate blockers diving at their legs for obvious reasons. It's a scheme you can't prepare for, teams that don't use extensive cut blocking feel it's too dangerous to do it in practice. The Missouri D-linemen need to stay home, they need to keep their composure when Navy blockers try to submarine them. I hope the Tigers brought plenty of fans with them because when you play service teams there's an unsual dynamic. Talent-wise, Navy is David & Mizzou is Goliath. The crowd & viewing audience route for David, they route for the service teams, so this will be like playing a Big-12 road game. Secondly, running up the score on an academy team is somewhat politically incorrect, no one wants to see our future millitary leaders buried by a bigger, faster & stronger opponent. So when you are able to get a lead on them, it's a tough decision to take your foot off the gas as a coach. When do you have a safe lead & by not going for the throat, are you running the risk of letting that service team back into the game momentum-wise. Please don't misunderstand what I'm trying to say, the service academies won't quit, they'll play with as much intensity as any team in the country but it can be very frustrating gameplanning & playing them. This Navy team beat Notre Dame on the road the last 2 times they played there. They pushed Ohio State to the last seconds before having a game-tying 2-point conversion pass intercepted & run back for 2 points. Sometimes having a large talent edge, like Mizzou has in this game, isn't enough. Just ask Houston, who is down 24-6 at half. But Tyron Carrier(a guy I featured in the "2Fer" article I wrote for "Upon Further Review"). just ran the 2nd half kickoff back for a score, so maybe they will stage a comeback, it will be tough. Oops, Air Force just returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown. Strange game.
I have only one play today & it is the total in the Sun Bowl between Stanford & Oklahoma. I like the game under 54 1/2. I've thought all season the best defenses in college football belong to, in no particular order, TCU, Alabama, Nebraska & Oklahoma. OU is very, very fast & extremely physical. They are also disciplined, they maintain superb gap responsibility & then fly to the ball. Their defense is also deep across the front & in the secondary. Stanford's offense is centered around RB Toby Gerhart, who is a pounding, physical runner. QB Andrew Luck had finger surgery after the regular season ended. He hasn't had much time to throw since. If you watched Nebraska shut out Arizona last night & I thought there was much to learn from it. Arizona beat Stanford & Arizona was held to 106 total yards last night. Comparitive scores is no way to gamble, but the PAC-10 as a conference is more offensively oreiented, defense has taken a back seat for a long time. In the Big-12, with the proliferation of the spread offense, defenses lag behind, except at OU & Nebraska. I don't see Landry Jones & the Sooner offense scoring more than 28 points, probably less. Keep an eye out for OU WR/PR Ryan Broyles, he wears #85, another of my "2Fer" players.
Prediction: Oklahoma 27 Stanford 17
I have only one play today & it is the total in the Sun Bowl between Stanford & Oklahoma. I like the game under 54 1/2. I've thought all season the best defenses in college football belong to, in no particular order, TCU, Alabama, Nebraska & Oklahoma. OU is very, very fast & extremely physical. They are also disciplined, they maintain superb gap responsibility & then fly to the ball. Their defense is also deep across the front & in the secondary. Stanford's offense is centered around RB Toby Gerhart, who is a pounding, physical runner. QB Andrew Luck had finger surgery after the regular season ended. He hasn't had much time to throw since. If you watched Nebraska shut out Arizona last night & I thought there was much to learn from it. Arizona beat Stanford & Arizona was held to 106 total yards last night. Comparitive scores is no way to gamble, but the PAC-10 as a conference is more offensively oreiented, defense has taken a back seat for a long time. In the Big-12, with the proliferation of the spread offense, defenses lag behind, except at OU & Nebraska. I don't see Landry Jones & the Sooner offense scoring more than 28 points, probably less. Keep an eye out for OU WR/PR Ryan Broyles, he wears #85, another of my "2Fer" players.
Prediction: Oklahoma 27 Stanford 17
Comments