NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF PREVIEW
The divisional playoffs begin tomorrow & like always I have a few facts, a few figures & some opinions. Here we are in mid-January & weather can't be a factor, three dome games & a game in San Diego. I find that disappointing, I have always hated dome games. Don't be in a hurry to select the home teams just because they have the best records, home teams in this round of the playoffs haven't fared well recently, just 7-9 straight up in the last four years. So lets examine the games.
Arizona at New Orleans(-7 & 56 1/2)
I didn't like the way the Saints finished the season, losing three straight & worst of all, they lost two home games. Sitting 13-0 in search of a perfect season, the Cowboys came into New Orleans & beat the Saints, the following week they were beaten by lowly Tampa Bay, also in the Superdome. Their season finale in Carolina didn't go well either, losing 23-10 to the Panthers. The Cardinals outscored the Packers last week to advance to the divisional round. Arizona looked very good in road games this season, in fact, the Cards were 6-2 on the road. They won two road games last season on their way to the Super Bowl, so playing a road playoff game isn't the major obstacle like it is to so many teams. Kurt Warner is 9-3 in the playoffs & he threw 5 touchdown passes in a playoff game for the second time last Sunday. Anquan Boldin didn't play last week & I don't think he'll play today. The Packers had the 2nd rated defense in the league & surrendered 51 points to Arizona. The Saints have the 26th ranked defense & have only played in two playoff games since Sean Payton took over the team & Drew Brees signed on as quarterback. I like the +7 with the Cardinals, it looks sort of "trap-like", but I'm going to take Arizona & the points. The total really looks like a trap, two explosive offenses with two mediocre defenses, but 56 1/2 is one of the highest playoff totals I can ever remember. Arizona +7 is the play.
Baltimore at Indianapolis(-6 1/2 & 44 1/2)
This is one is a 'watch but don't wager' game for me. The way the Colts finished the season was more disturbing than the way the Saints closed. Their starters have played slightly more than a half of football in the last 28 days. I just don't see how they can remain sharp with so little playing time. The Colts haven't fared well in this round losing 5 of the last 6 times they've gotten to the divisional round, 4 of them at home. Peyton Manning has been incredible this season, but I think he's in for a low-scoring knock-down-drag-out type of game tonight. I can't make a case for the Ravens either, their receivers stink & Joe Flacco has a hip injury they say is O.K., but I don't want to get involved in this one. The Ravens also won 2 road playoff games last season, but I don't see them duplicating that again tonight, Colts in a close one.
Dallas at Minnesota(-3 & 45 1/2)
I said last week if the Cowboys got by the Eagles, I thought they'd be Super Bowl bound. They did nothing in that game to change my opinion. They are healthy, Romo is playing well, they're running the ball effectively & Wade Phillips' defense has been awesome, giving up just 14 points in their last three 3 games. The Vikings on the other hand, are "all in" with their signing of Brett Favre. If they don't get to the Super Bowl, their 12-4 record doesn't really mean much. They lost at home in the 1st round last year. This 12-4 record isn't something to build on, Favre isn't going to be around in 2010, this was a one time shot, Brad Childress went "all in." Favre has had some very forgettable playoff games & Adrian Peterson's impact was less & less down the stretch. I have no opinion on the total. Dallas +3 is the play.
New York Jets at San Diego(-7 & 42 1/2)
The Chargers never took their foot off the gas, winning 11 straight going into this game on Sunday. The Jets won last week in Cincinnati because the Bengals let them dictate the game. The Chargers won't let that happen. The Chargers run defense hasn't been great because of Jamal Williams, nose tackle, went on I.R. early in the season. San Diego does have 4 very stout linebackers & if they can keep the Jets running game in check, I see no way Jets' QB Mark Sanchez will beat these corners, they're just too good. The Bengals had one really good WR, Chad Ochocinco, who Darrelle Revis shut down completely. The Chargers have 3 good wideouts, a Pro Bowl tight end & two backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield. In other words, I don't see New York stopping Phillip Rivers & company. The Jets made their point last week, they won a playoff game with a rookie head coach & a rookie QB. Frankly if not for the Colts pulling the plug in week 15, the Jets wouldn't have even been in the playoffs. I think their playoff run stops right here. I won't lay a lot of points in the playoffs & I have no feeling for the total, so there's two good reasons not to play on this game.
This is the 400th post I have written for this site since March 2nd of last year. I want to thank all of my loyal readers & hope those of you who have come on board in the last few weeks will continue to visit on a daily basis. I promise to keep you informed about everything football. Enjoy the games everybody.
Arizona at New Orleans(-7 & 56 1/2)
I didn't like the way the Saints finished the season, losing three straight & worst of all, they lost two home games. Sitting 13-0 in search of a perfect season, the Cowboys came into New Orleans & beat the Saints, the following week they were beaten by lowly Tampa Bay, also in the Superdome. Their season finale in Carolina didn't go well either, losing 23-10 to the Panthers. The Cardinals outscored the Packers last week to advance to the divisional round. Arizona looked very good in road games this season, in fact, the Cards were 6-2 on the road. They won two road games last season on their way to the Super Bowl, so playing a road playoff game isn't the major obstacle like it is to so many teams. Kurt Warner is 9-3 in the playoffs & he threw 5 touchdown passes in a playoff game for the second time last Sunday. Anquan Boldin didn't play last week & I don't think he'll play today. The Packers had the 2nd rated defense in the league & surrendered 51 points to Arizona. The Saints have the 26th ranked defense & have only played in two playoff games since Sean Payton took over the team & Drew Brees signed on as quarterback. I like the +7 with the Cardinals, it looks sort of "trap-like", but I'm going to take Arizona & the points. The total really looks like a trap, two explosive offenses with two mediocre defenses, but 56 1/2 is one of the highest playoff totals I can ever remember. Arizona +7 is the play.
Baltimore at Indianapolis(-6 1/2 & 44 1/2)
This is one is a 'watch but don't wager' game for me. The way the Colts finished the season was more disturbing than the way the Saints closed. Their starters have played slightly more than a half of football in the last 28 days. I just don't see how they can remain sharp with so little playing time. The Colts haven't fared well in this round losing 5 of the last 6 times they've gotten to the divisional round, 4 of them at home. Peyton Manning has been incredible this season, but I think he's in for a low-scoring knock-down-drag-out type of game tonight. I can't make a case for the Ravens either, their receivers stink & Joe Flacco has a hip injury they say is O.K., but I don't want to get involved in this one. The Ravens also won 2 road playoff games last season, but I don't see them duplicating that again tonight, Colts in a close one.
Dallas at Minnesota(-3 & 45 1/2)
I said last week if the Cowboys got by the Eagles, I thought they'd be Super Bowl bound. They did nothing in that game to change my opinion. They are healthy, Romo is playing well, they're running the ball effectively & Wade Phillips' defense has been awesome, giving up just 14 points in their last three 3 games. The Vikings on the other hand, are "all in" with their signing of Brett Favre. If they don't get to the Super Bowl, their 12-4 record doesn't really mean much. They lost at home in the 1st round last year. This 12-4 record isn't something to build on, Favre isn't going to be around in 2010, this was a one time shot, Brad Childress went "all in." Favre has had some very forgettable playoff games & Adrian Peterson's impact was less & less down the stretch. I have no opinion on the total. Dallas +3 is the play.
New York Jets at San Diego(-7 & 42 1/2)
The Chargers never took their foot off the gas, winning 11 straight going into this game on Sunday. The Jets won last week in Cincinnati because the Bengals let them dictate the game. The Chargers won't let that happen. The Chargers run defense hasn't been great because of Jamal Williams, nose tackle, went on I.R. early in the season. San Diego does have 4 very stout linebackers & if they can keep the Jets running game in check, I see no way Jets' QB Mark Sanchez will beat these corners, they're just too good. The Bengals had one really good WR, Chad Ochocinco, who Darrelle Revis shut down completely. The Chargers have 3 good wideouts, a Pro Bowl tight end & two backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield. In other words, I don't see New York stopping Phillip Rivers & company. The Jets made their point last week, they won a playoff game with a rookie head coach & a rookie QB. Frankly if not for the Colts pulling the plug in week 15, the Jets wouldn't have even been in the playoffs. I think their playoff run stops right here. I won't lay a lot of points in the playoffs & I have no feeling for the total, so there's two good reasons not to play on this game.
This is the 400th post I have written for this site since March 2nd of last year. I want to thank all of my loyal readers & hope those of you who have come on board in the last few weeks will continue to visit on a daily basis. I promise to keep you informed about everything football. Enjoy the games everybody.
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