CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY THOUGHTS & PREDICTIONS
Sorry I wasn't here yesterday, Linda & I went up to Kansas City Friday afternoon for our weather-delayed Christmas celebration with her family. After a evening with Jim & Pam, very dear friends, that included some fabulous Chinese food & hours of great conversation, we returned to our hotel about 2 AM. Yesterday morning we went to sis-in-law Janet's house for the perfect Kansas City post-Christmas, Christmas dinner, Bryants BBQ. We had beef, turkey, ribs, beans & of course Bryant's world famous whole-cut fries, as always, cooked in pure lard. It's the proverbial heart attack on a plate & along with many others at the table, I unashamedly refilled my plate. We get to eat Bryant's maybe 3 times a year, so I don't feel the least bit of guilt indulging in their artery-clogging fare. Well, to be honest, we brought about a pound of beef & turkey back to the lake along with a pint of beans, so we'll have it again this afternoon between games. The drive back to the Lake was miserable, rain & fog for about 70 miles, by the time we got back home, it was too late to watch the Tivo'd East-West Shrine Game, we vegged out for a couple of hours & went to bed. This morning, after a good night's sleep, we're alert enough to watch both championship games with the aforementioned Bryant's break.
The Jets-Colts AFC Championship game looks to be an under to me, as in under the 40 1/2 total. I can make a case for both sides honestly, but not the total, I just can't envision a scenario where this game puts the scoreboard on tilt. I hate betting an under, you're hoping to see nothing happen basically, no first downs, no turnovers & definitely not any scoring. It's always been a brutal bet unless you're planning something else to do with your afternoon. It's O.K. if you're going to mow the lawn, or go to your nephew's birthday party where there's no TV. But that's what I see in this game, so I'll be rooting for nothing to happen for 3 hours. The Jets run the ball, the Colts stopped a great running team last week. The Jets' defense likes to pressure the QB with a lot of blitzing, so did the Ravens. Yes, the Jets are a slightly better running team than the Ravens & their defense is better than the Ravens, but both like to do the same things in very similar ways. The Jets have Darrell Revis, who can possibly shut down Peyton Manning's favorite receiver, Reggie Wayne. But Manning has no qualms about checking down to either Austin Collie(60 receptions & 7 TD's) or Pierre Garcon(47 receptions & 4 TD's). Plus Manning has go-to 3rd down receiver, TE Dallas Clark(100 receptions & 10 TD's). Here's were the Jets, much like the Ravens, have matchup problems. Revis can shut down Reggie Wayne & maybe, just maybe, Jet safety Kerry Rhoades can handle Clark, but it's Collie & Garcon that can cause the most difficulty in the Jets' secondary. Plus RB's Joseph Addai & Donald Brown are also adept at catching the ball out of the backfield with 62 catches between them. The Jet linebackers are great blitzers & super tough to run on, but they don't fare as well dropping back in coverage. If the Jets can't pressure Manning to throw before he's ready, they will lose. But even if they keep the score low, Manning has proven time & again, he is capable of winning with just a few possessions. They won a game earlier this season with less than 20 minutes of offensive possession, almost unheard of, but Manning is just that great. I think the Jets will stay competitive in the game if they can run the ball just enough to take the pressure off rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will move Sanchez around in passing situations, not leave him in the pocket stationary for speed rushers Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis. Rex Ryan doesn't have a good record against Peyton Manning, as a defensive coordinator he's 0-6. As the Jets' head coach, he is 1-0, the lone win coming in week 16 when leading 15-10, the Colts pulled all their key starters in the 3rd quarter to rest them for the playoffs. The Jets came back & won the game, their appearance in today's game is directly tied to that decision made by Colt President & GM, Bill Polian. They would not have made the playoffs with a loss to Indy in that game. That decision might come back to bite Polian right in the ass, yes, the Jets could win this game, but I don't see it. Indianapolis 20 New York 16
The NFC title game has many more variables in it, most of them of the injury variety. The Vikings have 3 of their 4 defensive line starters somewhat hobbled or limited by leg & foot injuries. DE Ray Edwards, who had 3 sacks of Tony Romo last Sunday plus a forced fumble, has a strained knee that has caused him to wear a knee brace. The brace limits both flexibility & lateral movement. Edwards is a speed rusher, it could make him totally ineffective tonight. Brian Robison is his backup & tho he can get in the passer's face, 4.5 sacks in limited playing time, he is a lightweight in defending the run. The Vikings have never solved the MLB problem after Pro Bowler E.J. Henderson was injured at mid-season. Their run defense was substantially lessened. WR/KR Percy Harvin has also missed several practices with reoccuring migraine headaches. Playing in the loudest dome stadium in the league won't help matters. He is going to play according to reports this morning but could be disabled at anytime during the game. He's a major weapon with 6 touchdown receptions & 2 kickoff return touchdowns. The one other Viking issue I want to touch on is Adrian Peterson's propensity to fumbling the football lately, 7 in his last 9 games. This could be huge for the Saints if they can get him to turn the ball over to them. The Saints defense can be run upon, if Peterson can be productive, I think Minnesota can win. The Saints have their injury issues as well. Starting cornerback Mike Jenkins may not go tonight. TE Jeremy Shockey missed practice all week but went thru the walk thru yesterday. His balky knee is definitely a question mark. WR Robert Meachum & Pro Bowl safety, Darren Sharper, both have leg issues that could limit them tonight. Sharper played with Brett Favre for 8 years in Green Bay, 4 years against him while he was a Viking & now in this Championship game, he knows Brett Favre. Sharper has been one of the most instinctive players league-wide his entire career, Favre will have to keep one eye on Sharper at all times, he's a game changer. Now the biggest matchup in this game, the Viking D-line vs. the Saints offensive line is subject to injury. I thought all things being equal, the Vikings could dominate up front, but that was before the "Williams' Wall" & Edwards got hurt. Saint tackles, Jon Stinchcomb & Jermon Bushrod, could get abused by Jared Allen & Edwards. Pay too much attention to them & Kevin Williams can collapse the pocket up the middle. Injuries plague my prognostication, I'm not going for a side at 3 1/2, but I will take the game to go over the 53 1/2 total, These are the 2 highest scoring teams in the league at 510(Saints) & 470(Vikes). Both have exceptional return games, Saints with Reggie Bush returning punts & Minnesota's Percy Harvin on kickoffs. This game could put the scoreboard on tilt, at least I hope it does. New Orleans 38 Minnesota 34
I'd like to voice my displeasure in these two games being played indoors. Three of the four teams involved come from cold weather cities & yet they're playing indoors. The Saints have home-field advantage, so playing in the Louisiana Superdome is O.K. I guess. But football is an outdoor sport, always has been, the day Green Bay, Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, New England or the New York franchises start playing indoors, I may stop watching pro football. Playing outdoors in January should be an advantage for the home team, especially if you're playing against a warm-weather team. Remember it took Tampa Bay over 25 years to win a game that was played at or below 35 degrees? Playing indoors gives all that away & the elements have always been a part of the game of football. Today it's 51 degrees in Indianapolis & a balmy 31 in Minneapolis, hardly uncomfortable for players or fans. I say all this as I will be plopping my big ass down in a cozy & comfortable home theater lounger with my 3rd plate of Bryant's BBQ of the weekend. Enjoy what I hope will be two totally different games.
The Jets-Colts AFC Championship game looks to be an under to me, as in under the 40 1/2 total. I can make a case for both sides honestly, but not the total, I just can't envision a scenario where this game puts the scoreboard on tilt. I hate betting an under, you're hoping to see nothing happen basically, no first downs, no turnovers & definitely not any scoring. It's always been a brutal bet unless you're planning something else to do with your afternoon. It's O.K. if you're going to mow the lawn, or go to your nephew's birthday party where there's no TV. But that's what I see in this game, so I'll be rooting for nothing to happen for 3 hours. The Jets run the ball, the Colts stopped a great running team last week. The Jets' defense likes to pressure the QB with a lot of blitzing, so did the Ravens. Yes, the Jets are a slightly better running team than the Ravens & their defense is better than the Ravens, but both like to do the same things in very similar ways. The Jets have Darrell Revis, who can possibly shut down Peyton Manning's favorite receiver, Reggie Wayne. But Manning has no qualms about checking down to either Austin Collie(60 receptions & 7 TD's) or Pierre Garcon(47 receptions & 4 TD's). Plus Manning has go-to 3rd down receiver, TE Dallas Clark(100 receptions & 10 TD's). Here's were the Jets, much like the Ravens, have matchup problems. Revis can shut down Reggie Wayne & maybe, just maybe, Jet safety Kerry Rhoades can handle Clark, but it's Collie & Garcon that can cause the most difficulty in the Jets' secondary. Plus RB's Joseph Addai & Donald Brown are also adept at catching the ball out of the backfield with 62 catches between them. The Jet linebackers are great blitzers & super tough to run on, but they don't fare as well dropping back in coverage. If the Jets can't pressure Manning to throw before he's ready, they will lose. But even if they keep the score low, Manning has proven time & again, he is capable of winning with just a few possessions. They won a game earlier this season with less than 20 minutes of offensive possession, almost unheard of, but Manning is just that great. I think the Jets will stay competitive in the game if they can run the ball just enough to take the pressure off rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will move Sanchez around in passing situations, not leave him in the pocket stationary for speed rushers Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis. Rex Ryan doesn't have a good record against Peyton Manning, as a defensive coordinator he's 0-6. As the Jets' head coach, he is 1-0, the lone win coming in week 16 when leading 15-10, the Colts pulled all their key starters in the 3rd quarter to rest them for the playoffs. The Jets came back & won the game, their appearance in today's game is directly tied to that decision made by Colt President & GM, Bill Polian. They would not have made the playoffs with a loss to Indy in that game. That decision might come back to bite Polian right in the ass, yes, the Jets could win this game, but I don't see it. Indianapolis 20 New York 16
The NFC title game has many more variables in it, most of them of the injury variety. The Vikings have 3 of their 4 defensive line starters somewhat hobbled or limited by leg & foot injuries. DE Ray Edwards, who had 3 sacks of Tony Romo last Sunday plus a forced fumble, has a strained knee that has caused him to wear a knee brace. The brace limits both flexibility & lateral movement. Edwards is a speed rusher, it could make him totally ineffective tonight. Brian Robison is his backup & tho he can get in the passer's face, 4.5 sacks in limited playing time, he is a lightweight in defending the run. The Vikings have never solved the MLB problem after Pro Bowler E.J. Henderson was injured at mid-season. Their run defense was substantially lessened. WR/KR Percy Harvin has also missed several practices with reoccuring migraine headaches. Playing in the loudest dome stadium in the league won't help matters. He is going to play according to reports this morning but could be disabled at anytime during the game. He's a major weapon with 6 touchdown receptions & 2 kickoff return touchdowns. The one other Viking issue I want to touch on is Adrian Peterson's propensity to fumbling the football lately, 7 in his last 9 games. This could be huge for the Saints if they can get him to turn the ball over to them. The Saints defense can be run upon, if Peterson can be productive, I think Minnesota can win. The Saints have their injury issues as well. Starting cornerback Mike Jenkins may not go tonight. TE Jeremy Shockey missed practice all week but went thru the walk thru yesterday. His balky knee is definitely a question mark. WR Robert Meachum & Pro Bowl safety, Darren Sharper, both have leg issues that could limit them tonight. Sharper played with Brett Favre for 8 years in Green Bay, 4 years against him while he was a Viking & now in this Championship game, he knows Brett Favre. Sharper has been one of the most instinctive players league-wide his entire career, Favre will have to keep one eye on Sharper at all times, he's a game changer. Now the biggest matchup in this game, the Viking D-line vs. the Saints offensive line is subject to injury. I thought all things being equal, the Vikings could dominate up front, but that was before the "Williams' Wall" & Edwards got hurt. Saint tackles, Jon Stinchcomb & Jermon Bushrod, could get abused by Jared Allen & Edwards. Pay too much attention to them & Kevin Williams can collapse the pocket up the middle. Injuries plague my prognostication, I'm not going for a side at 3 1/2, but I will take the game to go over the 53 1/2 total, These are the 2 highest scoring teams in the league at 510(Saints) & 470(Vikes). Both have exceptional return games, Saints with Reggie Bush returning punts & Minnesota's Percy Harvin on kickoffs. This game could put the scoreboard on tilt, at least I hope it does. New Orleans 38 Minnesota 34
I'd like to voice my displeasure in these two games being played indoors. Three of the four teams involved come from cold weather cities & yet they're playing indoors. The Saints have home-field advantage, so playing in the Louisiana Superdome is O.K. I guess. But football is an outdoor sport, always has been, the day Green Bay, Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, New England or the New York franchises start playing indoors, I may stop watching pro football. Playing outdoors in January should be an advantage for the home team, especially if you're playing against a warm-weather team. Remember it took Tampa Bay over 25 years to win a game that was played at or below 35 degrees? Playing indoors gives all that away & the elements have always been a part of the game of football. Today it's 51 degrees in Indianapolis & a balmy 31 in Minneapolis, hardly uncomfortable for players or fans. I say all this as I will be plopping my big ass down in a cozy & comfortable home theater lounger with my 3rd plate of Bryant's BBQ of the weekend. Enjoy what I hope will be two totally different games.
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