TIME FOR THE SUPER BOWL BREAKDOWN & MY PREDICTIONS
As the snow continues to fall here at the Lake, I have spent the entire day going over line sheets from the past 3 seasons, immersed myself in every stat I could find online that might impact this game & spent an hour talking to a pair of the smartest guys I know when it comes to pro football & football wagering. Kevin & Joe Z. always have something worth hearing regarding our favorite sport. Let's start with a few facts I've compiled.
The Colts were 16-2 this season, their 2 losses were at the end of the season when GM Bill Polian decided that an undefeated season wasn't as important as getting to the Super Bowl with a healthy team. The Colts' starters were pulled with a 15-10 lead against the Jets midway thru the 3rd quarter. Their other loss was in a blizzard in Buffalo when their starters played only one series. Their record against the pointspread was a gaudy 12-5-1, the best in the league. If you throw out those two games, the Colts are 7-0 in their last seven games, including the playoffs, straight up & against the spread.
New Orleans has been an underdog 14 times in the last 3 seasons, their record in those games is somewhat surprising, 2-12 straight up & just 7-7 against the Vegas line.
Teams playing in the Super Bowl for the first time are 4-19 straight up. This is New Orleans' first trip.
The sacks, forced fumbles, penalties, points per game & yards per game are just about a push between the two teams. The major difference is in interceptions where the Saints got 26, the Colts just 16. But the Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league with only 13, the Saints were in the top-5 with 20. With regard to the turnover battle, New Orleans must win this stat or they won't win.
The Colts aren't really adept at running the ball in fact, the Colts were dead-last league-wide. The Saints averaged 51 yards more a game during the regular season. Last season the 32nd ranked rushing offense, Arizona, made the Super Bowl as well.
Indy led the league in 3rd down efficiency at 49.7%.
The Colts have 11 starters in this game that started for them 3 years ago when they beat the Bears.
The Saints have 4 players with Super Bowl experience, only one a starter, Darren Sharper.
The Colts have virtually the same coaching staff as they had 3 years ago minus Tony Dungy.
The AFC is the better conference, the inter-conference records prove that. The AFC has won 9 of the past 12 Super Bowls & 5 of the last 6.
Now for some opinion;
The Colts have one of the top-5 quarterbacks of all-time & before he's finished, he might be considered the best. As great as Drew Brees has been, he's not Peyton Manning.
Indianapolis has a better group of receivers. The big difference is at TE, Dallas Clark is far superior to Jeremy Shockey, who can't stay on the field.
The interior of the Saints' offensive line is one of the best in the league with guards Jahri Evans & Carl Nicks along with center Jonathan Goodwin, very skilled & downright huge. The tackles, Jermond Bushrod & Jon Stinchcomb, aren't the best & will require help from fullback heath Evans or reserve TE Darnell Dinkins, whether Dwight Freeney plays or not.
There are 4 ways a game can go, a blowout by either team or a close win by either team. I can make a case for either team winning in a close game & also for a blowout by Indianapolis, but not a New Orleans' blowout(the one exception would be an injury to Manning early in the game). The Colts are simply too battle-tested to be blown out, they won't panic. They had less time of possession in more than half their games this season & have a 16-2 record to show for it. I can't remember this ever happening, it speaks to the stability of the coaching staff, their experience(their regular season record is 39-9 the last 3 years) & Manning. The Saints record over the same time frame is 28-20.
The ankle injury Colts' defensive end Dwight Freeney is battling is a serious one, I doubt he will be much of a factor if at all. The Colt defense is well coached by coordinator Larry Coyer, I think all this talk about the Saints having to run the ball to win this game is bull. I believe Sean Payton will go after Raheem Brock, Freeney's replacement & throw the ball a lot early on in this game. I doubt Payton will be so conservative Sunday like he was in the 2nd half of the game with Minnesota. Let me be clear about this, if the Vikings don't put the ball on the ground 5 times & Favre doesn't throw a pick, the Saints lose that game by 17 points. They're on borrowed time, Payton has to know that, I think his game plan will be more aggressive.
I think Gregg Williams' remarks last week about leaving a few "remember me" hits on Peyton Manning was really stupid. Twice in the Vikings-Saints game, the New Orleans' pass rush did just that, whacked Brett Favre & weren't flagged for those hits. The NFL office admitted they should have called two personal fouls on Saint pass rushers that weren't called. I think the zebra's will be looking for those hits on Sunday.
New Orleans likes to blitz, Peyton Manning is the best I've ever seen at not only recognizing the blitz, but where it's coming from before the ball is even snapped. That's part of the reason he's sacked so seldom. Plus no one & I mean no one I've ever watched is better prepared to read the defense he's facing. Even when they stumble at first, like they did against the Jets for 3-4 series, Tom Moore, Howard Mudd, Frank Reich & Manning eventually figure it out. That's when the blitz can blow up in your face, especially with Manning.
I don't see the Saints' defense being as frenzied away from the Superdome & it's 70,000 screaming fans. Playing outdoors on a semi-neutral field should slow this unit down somewhat.
Despite the Colts last place finish in league rushing stats, I think the Colts will run for 120+ yards Sunday. When they spread the field 3 & 4 wide, Joseph Addai & Donald brown should be able to find cutback lanes & creases to advance the ball downfield.
The X-Factor in this game could be Reggie Bush. Do the Saints get the Reggie Bush that tore up the Cardinals with 2 scores from scrimmage plus a punt return touchdown? Or do they get the Reggie Bush that gained 8 yards on 7 carries versus the Vikings? He has the ability to take any play all the way. If the Saints win the game, Bush has promised to give his girlfriend, reality TV star Kim Kardashian, an engagement ring. So there's something to look forward to huh?
In Super Bowl games a team scoring over 31 points is 18-0. Barring injury, I can't see the Saints holding Indy under 31 points. As 50-60 of you will remember, I gave you the exact 4th qtr. scenario for last year's game & I also picked the exact score, Pittsburgh 27-23. I know I can't do that again, probably ever, but I'll give you my best shot, Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 27
Tomorrow I'll have a feature on "prop bets", the wild & wacky proposition wagers you can make on this game in Nevada or in off-shore sportsbooks. Some will amaze you, others will crack you up & I'll also give you my wager(s) on this contest, so be back here tomorrow afternoon.
The Colts were 16-2 this season, their 2 losses were at the end of the season when GM Bill Polian decided that an undefeated season wasn't as important as getting to the Super Bowl with a healthy team. The Colts' starters were pulled with a 15-10 lead against the Jets midway thru the 3rd quarter. Their other loss was in a blizzard in Buffalo when their starters played only one series. Their record against the pointspread was a gaudy 12-5-1, the best in the league. If you throw out those two games, the Colts are 7-0 in their last seven games, including the playoffs, straight up & against the spread.
New Orleans has been an underdog 14 times in the last 3 seasons, their record in those games is somewhat surprising, 2-12 straight up & just 7-7 against the Vegas line.
Teams playing in the Super Bowl for the first time are 4-19 straight up. This is New Orleans' first trip.
The sacks, forced fumbles, penalties, points per game & yards per game are just about a push between the two teams. The major difference is in interceptions where the Saints got 26, the Colts just 16. But the Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league with only 13, the Saints were in the top-5 with 20. With regard to the turnover battle, New Orleans must win this stat or they won't win.
The Colts aren't really adept at running the ball in fact, the Colts were dead-last league-wide. The Saints averaged 51 yards more a game during the regular season. Last season the 32nd ranked rushing offense, Arizona, made the Super Bowl as well.
Indy led the league in 3rd down efficiency at 49.7%.
The Colts have 11 starters in this game that started for them 3 years ago when they beat the Bears.
The Saints have 4 players with Super Bowl experience, only one a starter, Darren Sharper.
The Colts have virtually the same coaching staff as they had 3 years ago minus Tony Dungy.
The AFC is the better conference, the inter-conference records prove that. The AFC has won 9 of the past 12 Super Bowls & 5 of the last 6.
Now for some opinion;
The Colts have one of the top-5 quarterbacks of all-time & before he's finished, he might be considered the best. As great as Drew Brees has been, he's not Peyton Manning.
Indianapolis has a better group of receivers. The big difference is at TE, Dallas Clark is far superior to Jeremy Shockey, who can't stay on the field.
The interior of the Saints' offensive line is one of the best in the league with guards Jahri Evans & Carl Nicks along with center Jonathan Goodwin, very skilled & downright huge. The tackles, Jermond Bushrod & Jon Stinchcomb, aren't the best & will require help from fullback heath Evans or reserve TE Darnell Dinkins, whether Dwight Freeney plays or not.
There are 4 ways a game can go, a blowout by either team or a close win by either team. I can make a case for either team winning in a close game & also for a blowout by Indianapolis, but not a New Orleans' blowout(the one exception would be an injury to Manning early in the game). The Colts are simply too battle-tested to be blown out, they won't panic. They had less time of possession in more than half their games this season & have a 16-2 record to show for it. I can't remember this ever happening, it speaks to the stability of the coaching staff, their experience(their regular season record is 39-9 the last 3 years) & Manning. The Saints record over the same time frame is 28-20.
The ankle injury Colts' defensive end Dwight Freeney is battling is a serious one, I doubt he will be much of a factor if at all. The Colt defense is well coached by coordinator Larry Coyer, I think all this talk about the Saints having to run the ball to win this game is bull. I believe Sean Payton will go after Raheem Brock, Freeney's replacement & throw the ball a lot early on in this game. I doubt Payton will be so conservative Sunday like he was in the 2nd half of the game with Minnesota. Let me be clear about this, if the Vikings don't put the ball on the ground 5 times & Favre doesn't throw a pick, the Saints lose that game by 17 points. They're on borrowed time, Payton has to know that, I think his game plan will be more aggressive.
I think Gregg Williams' remarks last week about leaving a few "remember me" hits on Peyton Manning was really stupid. Twice in the Vikings-Saints game, the New Orleans' pass rush did just that, whacked Brett Favre & weren't flagged for those hits. The NFL office admitted they should have called two personal fouls on Saint pass rushers that weren't called. I think the zebra's will be looking for those hits on Sunday.
New Orleans likes to blitz, Peyton Manning is the best I've ever seen at not only recognizing the blitz, but where it's coming from before the ball is even snapped. That's part of the reason he's sacked so seldom. Plus no one & I mean no one I've ever watched is better prepared to read the defense he's facing. Even when they stumble at first, like they did against the Jets for 3-4 series, Tom Moore, Howard Mudd, Frank Reich & Manning eventually figure it out. That's when the blitz can blow up in your face, especially with Manning.
I don't see the Saints' defense being as frenzied away from the Superdome & it's 70,000 screaming fans. Playing outdoors on a semi-neutral field should slow this unit down somewhat.
Despite the Colts last place finish in league rushing stats, I think the Colts will run for 120+ yards Sunday. When they spread the field 3 & 4 wide, Joseph Addai & Donald brown should be able to find cutback lanes & creases to advance the ball downfield.
The X-Factor in this game could be Reggie Bush. Do the Saints get the Reggie Bush that tore up the Cardinals with 2 scores from scrimmage plus a punt return touchdown? Or do they get the Reggie Bush that gained 8 yards on 7 carries versus the Vikings? He has the ability to take any play all the way. If the Saints win the game, Bush has promised to give his girlfriend, reality TV star Kim Kardashian, an engagement ring. So there's something to look forward to huh?
In Super Bowl games a team scoring over 31 points is 18-0. Barring injury, I can't see the Saints holding Indy under 31 points. As 50-60 of you will remember, I gave you the exact 4th qtr. scenario for last year's game & I also picked the exact score, Pittsburgh 27-23. I know I can't do that again, probably ever, but I'll give you my best shot, Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 27
Tomorrow I'll have a feature on "prop bets", the wild & wacky proposition wagers you can make on this game in Nevada or in off-shore sportsbooks. Some will amaze you, others will crack you up & I'll also give you my wager(s) on this contest, so be back here tomorrow afternoon.
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