2010 NFL DRAFT - SAFETY RANKINGS & ANALYSIS
The last of my positional analysis will cover the safeties. This will be your last draft cheatsheet. A first round 32-pick mock draft will come later tonight & a 5-round Chiefs' mock draft with several scenarios will be posted early tomorrow.
Safeties
Before I start the rankings, I'd like to make a couple of points regarding the safety position. Regardless of what Todd McShay or Mel Kiper Jr. tells you on ESPN, the following is fact, it is not opinion.
Taking a safety with a top-10 pick hasn't proven to be a wise investment. In the last 25 drafts, only 2 safeties taken that high have ever played in a Pro Bowl game & none are Hall of Fame candidates. The two are Eric Turner, played for 3 teams, making the Pro Bowl twice in his 8-year career & Sean Taylor, who played only 3 1/2 seasons before being murdered in his home during a home invasion. He made the Pro Bowl twice. Many of the others couldn't even be called "solid starters" with several total busts.
Two things can be stated in regard to the most productive safeties over the last decade. Any arguments that Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders, Brian Dawkins, Darren Sharper & Rodney Harrison would be at the top of the list during this time? Okay, now to the two points. All six of these safeties played with a lot of other playmakers, they played with solid cornerbacks, they played behind productive pass rushes.....any arguments? For a safety to make a significant impact on a team's defensive performance, he must be free to read, roam & wreck. If their front seven doesn't slow the run game down considerably & exert a credible pass rush, the safety will not make a major impact. Period. Next point is these six perennial Pro Bowl performers have another thing in common, all were injured often, missing significant playing time. You can't make plays when you're not in uniform. These guys make a lot of contact, very often with players much bigger & stronger than they are, players with a full head of steam. This punishment takes a toll on these guys, who in some cases, barely tip the scales at 200 lbs.
When a franchise makes a top-10 pick financial commitment, they need a player who makes an impact & can stay on the field. Taking a safety this high is a gamble that has proven over the years, to be an unwise investment. Safeties can absolutely be game changers, the group I listed above certainly make that point, but not one in that group was selected higher than the 16th pick(Polamalu). Reed was the only other 1st rounder. So when you hear that Eric Berry is a can't miss prospect think about what I've said here.
1. Eric Berry--5' 11 5/8" 211--Tennessee--Superior instincts for the position. Equally effective against the run & pass. Excellent ball skills, the junior picked off 14 passes in his 37 starts, returning them for 494 yards, just 7 yards shy of the NCAA record. A big hitter, at times he will launch his body at a ball carrier like a missile & sometimes he bounces off or misses altogether. His speed, 4.47, allows him to cover slot receivers man to man with ease. He has unbelievable closing speed, when he diagnoses where the ball is going, he gets there in a hurry. Will be picked higher than he should, but Berry does have Ed Reed-like potential to be sure.
2. Earl Thomas--5' 10 1/2 202--Texas--Only a 3rd-year sophomore, Thomas has unbelievable instincts & ball skills. Ten interceptions with 2 run back for touchdowns, 33 passes broken up, 5 forced fumbles & 2 blocked kicks. He is always around the ball, recorded 149 tackles playing in a superior program against elite competition. Has the speed, 4.41, hips & long arms to play cornerback in the NFL. That might happen because of his slight build, he's thin-hipped & really doesn't have the frame to add much bulk. Many scouts like Thomas over Berry because of his versatility. Top-15 pick.
3. Taylor Mays--6' 3" 230--USC--Workout warrior but not a great football player at this point, I think he's near the top of the "Most Overrated" list. I don't consider him to be a 1st round draft pick & only slightly better than my #4 rated safety. Gym rat with off-the-charts workout numbers, 4.37 forty, 41" vertical jump, 24 reps in the bench press & he looks like a linebacker, solid as a rock. Outran all the cornerbacks at the combine weighing 230. Explosive tackler, sometimes he hits like a bomb, sometimes. He misses too many tackles, mostly because he takes bad angles to the ball & he's out of position to square up to make a proper tackle. Zero instinct, even with his speed, he is a step late all the time. His speed is of the straight-line variety, he doesn't change directions well or flip his hips to turn & run deep. Only 5 interceptions in 50 starts, 3 coming his freshman year. Only forced 1 fumble despite his knockout shots. He doesn't play anywhere near his timed speed & if you don't know where the ball is going, you can't be a top-flight safety. Will be drafted on his workout numbers, which will be way too high.
4. Nate Allen--6' 1/2" 205--South Florida--Instinctive centerfield-type of free safety. Covers a lot of ground makes enough plays, 9 interceptions in 38 starts to warrant 2nd round consideration. Inconsistent in run support & frankly he doesn't flatten anybody, more of a drag-down tackler. I'd like him a lot more than Mays if he was more aggressive in run support, covering the middle of the field appears to be no problem.
5. Morgan Burnett--6' 1 1/4" 209--Georgia Tech--Only a 2-year starter at Tech, this junior still managed 14 interceptions, 19 pass breakups & a staggering 206 tackles. Very physical player who is excellent in run support, very aggressive. Tho I've seen him blow up more than a few ball carriers & receivers, he takes poor angles at times, taking himself out of the play. I saw him get caught twice in one drive on play-action, a definite no-no in the pros. I'd say he's smart, tough & a little too gullible. Second round talent.
6. T.J. Ward--5' 10 1/2" 211--Oregon--This strong safety prospect started only 20 games for the Ducks, injuries plagued his college career. Very tough, physical in-the-box-safety who doesn't back down from anybody. Willing in run support but not a consistent tackler, tries to knock guys out too often instead of just getting them on the ground. Doesn't cover a lot of ground in the deep middle, so he'll have to play for a team that likes their strong safety close to the line of scrimmage.
7. Major Wright--5' 11'' 206--Florida--Aggressive safety who likes contact & can deliver a blow. Not great at covering slot guys man to man, his closing speed is questionable. Recorded 8 picks in 3 seasons, this junior started 33 games in a top-flight program vs. outstanding competition. Good worker & very coachable, he might not have the awareness & instincts to flourish in the NFL.
8. Chad Jones--6' 2" 225--LSU--I've sworn off players from LSU until one of Les Myles' guys makes a major impact at the next level. Jones looks the part but he's only a 1-year starter. He will pop you if he gets a shot but he misses a lot of open field tackles & that's frowned upon when you're the safety. Was a left-handed relief pitcher for the National Champion LSU baseball team, he brings extreme heat, 98-MPH heat. He might never play in the NFL considering he has a future in baseball.
9. Larry Asante--6' 212--In-the-box safety prospect who is excellent in run support, a willing tackler who hits with force. Closes downhill in running plays as well as anyone in this draft. Moves laterally well too. Movingbackward, well that's another story. Doesn't run well, 4.63, doesn't show a lot of hip flexibility to turn & run which limits his drops on passing downs. Started 3 seasons but only recorded 3 interceptions. But his future is in the box primarily as a run defender, his 224 tackles attest to that skill. Fourth rounder.
10.Reshad Jones--6' 1 1/4" 214--Georgia--Inconsistent strong safety who's aggressive in his tackling but not getting there in time is bothersome. Doesn't close as fast as you'd like to see, just cruising at 3/4 speed toward the ball carrier. Athletic tight ends give him trouble, he doesn't mirror well in coverage. He had good production in a big-time program, 11 interceptions & 206 tackles in 27 starts, this junior has some upside if he can gain confidence in his instincts & close on the ball better.
Safeties
Before I start the rankings, I'd like to make a couple of points regarding the safety position. Regardless of what Todd McShay or Mel Kiper Jr. tells you on ESPN, the following is fact, it is not opinion.
Taking a safety with a top-10 pick hasn't proven to be a wise investment. In the last 25 drafts, only 2 safeties taken that high have ever played in a Pro Bowl game & none are Hall of Fame candidates. The two are Eric Turner, played for 3 teams, making the Pro Bowl twice in his 8-year career & Sean Taylor, who played only 3 1/2 seasons before being murdered in his home during a home invasion. He made the Pro Bowl twice. Many of the others couldn't even be called "solid starters" with several total busts.
Two things can be stated in regard to the most productive safeties over the last decade. Any arguments that Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders, Brian Dawkins, Darren Sharper & Rodney Harrison would be at the top of the list during this time? Okay, now to the two points. All six of these safeties played with a lot of other playmakers, they played with solid cornerbacks, they played behind productive pass rushes.....any arguments? For a safety to make a significant impact on a team's defensive performance, he must be free to read, roam & wreck. If their front seven doesn't slow the run game down considerably & exert a credible pass rush, the safety will not make a major impact. Period. Next point is these six perennial Pro Bowl performers have another thing in common, all were injured often, missing significant playing time. You can't make plays when you're not in uniform. These guys make a lot of contact, very often with players much bigger & stronger than they are, players with a full head of steam. This punishment takes a toll on these guys, who in some cases, barely tip the scales at 200 lbs.
When a franchise makes a top-10 pick financial commitment, they need a player who makes an impact & can stay on the field. Taking a safety this high is a gamble that has proven over the years, to be an unwise investment. Safeties can absolutely be game changers, the group I listed above certainly make that point, but not one in that group was selected higher than the 16th pick(Polamalu). Reed was the only other 1st rounder. So when you hear that Eric Berry is a can't miss prospect think about what I've said here.
1. Eric Berry--5' 11 5/8" 211--Tennessee--Superior instincts for the position. Equally effective against the run & pass. Excellent ball skills, the junior picked off 14 passes in his 37 starts, returning them for 494 yards, just 7 yards shy of the NCAA record. A big hitter, at times he will launch his body at a ball carrier like a missile & sometimes he bounces off or misses altogether. His speed, 4.47, allows him to cover slot receivers man to man with ease. He has unbelievable closing speed, when he diagnoses where the ball is going, he gets there in a hurry. Will be picked higher than he should, but Berry does have Ed Reed-like potential to be sure.
2. Earl Thomas--5' 10 1/2 202--Texas--Only a 3rd-year sophomore, Thomas has unbelievable instincts & ball skills. Ten interceptions with 2 run back for touchdowns, 33 passes broken up, 5 forced fumbles & 2 blocked kicks. He is always around the ball, recorded 149 tackles playing in a superior program against elite competition. Has the speed, 4.41, hips & long arms to play cornerback in the NFL. That might happen because of his slight build, he's thin-hipped & really doesn't have the frame to add much bulk. Many scouts like Thomas over Berry because of his versatility. Top-15 pick.
3. Taylor Mays--6' 3" 230--USC--Workout warrior but not a great football player at this point, I think he's near the top of the "Most Overrated" list. I don't consider him to be a 1st round draft pick & only slightly better than my #4 rated safety. Gym rat with off-the-charts workout numbers, 4.37 forty, 41" vertical jump, 24 reps in the bench press & he looks like a linebacker, solid as a rock. Outran all the cornerbacks at the combine weighing 230. Explosive tackler, sometimes he hits like a bomb, sometimes. He misses too many tackles, mostly because he takes bad angles to the ball & he's out of position to square up to make a proper tackle. Zero instinct, even with his speed, he is a step late all the time. His speed is of the straight-line variety, he doesn't change directions well or flip his hips to turn & run deep. Only 5 interceptions in 50 starts, 3 coming his freshman year. Only forced 1 fumble despite his knockout shots. He doesn't play anywhere near his timed speed & if you don't know where the ball is going, you can't be a top-flight safety. Will be drafted on his workout numbers, which will be way too high.
4. Nate Allen--6' 1/2" 205--South Florida--Instinctive centerfield-type of free safety. Covers a lot of ground makes enough plays, 9 interceptions in 38 starts to warrant 2nd round consideration. Inconsistent in run support & frankly he doesn't flatten anybody, more of a drag-down tackler. I'd like him a lot more than Mays if he was more aggressive in run support, covering the middle of the field appears to be no problem.
5. Morgan Burnett--6' 1 1/4" 209--Georgia Tech--Only a 2-year starter at Tech, this junior still managed 14 interceptions, 19 pass breakups & a staggering 206 tackles. Very physical player who is excellent in run support, very aggressive. Tho I've seen him blow up more than a few ball carriers & receivers, he takes poor angles at times, taking himself out of the play. I saw him get caught twice in one drive on play-action, a definite no-no in the pros. I'd say he's smart, tough & a little too gullible. Second round talent.
6. T.J. Ward--5' 10 1/2" 211--Oregon--This strong safety prospect started only 20 games for the Ducks, injuries plagued his college career. Very tough, physical in-the-box-safety who doesn't back down from anybody. Willing in run support but not a consistent tackler, tries to knock guys out too often instead of just getting them on the ground. Doesn't cover a lot of ground in the deep middle, so he'll have to play for a team that likes their strong safety close to the line of scrimmage.
7. Major Wright--5' 11'' 206--Florida--Aggressive safety who likes contact & can deliver a blow. Not great at covering slot guys man to man, his closing speed is questionable. Recorded 8 picks in 3 seasons, this junior started 33 games in a top-flight program vs. outstanding competition. Good worker & very coachable, he might not have the awareness & instincts to flourish in the NFL.
8. Chad Jones--6' 2" 225--LSU--I've sworn off players from LSU until one of Les Myles' guys makes a major impact at the next level. Jones looks the part but he's only a 1-year starter. He will pop you if he gets a shot but he misses a lot of open field tackles & that's frowned upon when you're the safety. Was a left-handed relief pitcher for the National Champion LSU baseball team, he brings extreme heat, 98-MPH heat. He might never play in the NFL considering he has a future in baseball.
9. Larry Asante--6' 212--In-the-box safety prospect who is excellent in run support, a willing tackler who hits with force. Closes downhill in running plays as well as anyone in this draft. Moves laterally well too. Movingbackward, well that's another story. Doesn't run well, 4.63, doesn't show a lot of hip flexibility to turn & run which limits his drops on passing downs. Started 3 seasons but only recorded 3 interceptions. But his future is in the box primarily as a run defender, his 224 tackles attest to that skill. Fourth rounder.
10.Reshad Jones--6' 1 1/4" 214--Georgia--Inconsistent strong safety who's aggressive in his tackling but not getting there in time is bothersome. Doesn't close as fast as you'd like to see, just cruising at 3/4 speed toward the ball carrier. Athletic tight ends give him trouble, he doesn't mirror well in coverage. He had good production in a big-time program, 11 interceptions & 206 tackles in 27 starts, this junior has some upside if he can gain confidence in his instincts & close on the ball better.
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