MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT NEW YORK JETS
6 PM ESPN
I like the Ravens in this game, they're my AFC Super Bowl pick plus the Jets are one of my three over-hyped teams I expect to disappoint in 2010. This game matches the Ravens Jim Harbaugh pitted against his former defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan, the Jets' coach. Both teams have superior defenses with extremely aggressive game plans. Both defenses find themselves somewhat limited right now because of injuries. The Ravens are missing their All-Pro safety Ed Reed, currently sitting on the PUP list after undergoing hip surgery. He, along with linebackers Ray Lewis & Terrell Suggs, have to be accounted for on every snap. Reed's absence will cause the Baltimore secondary to scheme a little more conservatively. The Jets are without linebacker Calvin Pace, their leading sacker from a year ago & they just don't have another rusher who can pick up the slack. They will have to gameplan other pressure options to create problems for Raven QB Joe Flacco. The one thing in New York's favor is their secondary can extend the play with their superior coverage, giving their pass rushers another second or two to reach the quarterback.
Both teams have excellent running games, the Jets led by power runner Shonn Green, the Ravens by the multi-talented Ray Rice. I give a slight edge in receivers to Baltimore, both offensive lines are excellent. So where is the edge Baltimore needs to win this game? At quarterback, Joe Flacco has proven himself to be a better decision maker & his deep ball is much better than his counterpart, the Jets Mark Sanchez. In a league that is driven by quarterback play, Sanchez has shown himself to be very erratic at times, throwing too many interceptions & trying to force the ball into covered receivers. He has trouble throwing the ball away, he consistently tries to make plays when there is nothing available. This is a lesson Flacco has just about mastered.
This should be a real head-knocker. But, as I said in my preseason predictions, the Jets, Cowboys & Bengals could be big disappointments this season, Dallas & Cincy have already lost in week one, I think the Jets will as well.
Final score: Baltimore 20 New York 13
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AT THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
9:15 ESPN
The talent the Chargers will be without could come very close to evening out the obvious advantage San Diego had a few weeks ago. Vincent Jackson, the team leader in receiving yards & touchdown receptions is currently suspended plus he's been withholding his services from the team in search of a new contract. So far it hasn't worked. Also currently holding out is starting left tackle Marcus McNeill. His replacement, Brandyn Dombrowski has a total of 3 preseason starts at left tackle. Former defensive player of the year, Shawne Merriman, will also miss tonight's game. Second year man Larry English will get the start. The Chiefs had listed rookie Dexter McCluster as doubtful with an undisclosed illness until yesterday when he was upgraded to questionable. Since questionable usually means 50-50 & McCluster is not a starter anyway, just a situational player, my guess is he'll get 15-20 snaps tonight, which is a big deal for the Chiefs' effort. A player with McCluster's game-breaking ability has to be accounted for on every snap, so even if he's not the ballcarrier or the primary receiver, the defense still has to pay attention to him. There's a huge drop-off from McCluster to his replacement, Quinten Lawrence.
The Chargers' major advantage is at the quarterback position. Phillip Rivers runs one of the most dangerous vertical passing games in the entire league. Losing Jackson will affect their play calling. Patrick Crayton was picked up from Dallas last week, but he's a #3 receiver at best & Jackson was a #1. Malcolm Floyd will move into Jackson's spot & Legedu Naanee will fill the #2 spot. Gone is LaDainian Tomlinson now replaced by rookie Ryan Mathews who should be a natural in this offense. I question his blitz pick-up pass blocking tho, it's something he's never had to do.
How Dombrowski holds up against Chiefs' OLB Tamba Hali will determine a lot. If the Chargers have to give him help with a back or tight end to chip block Hali, it takes a receiver out of their patterns, making them easier to defense for the Kansas City secondary. Rookie safeties Kendrick Lewis & Eric Berry will have to be careful to not over commit to the run or shorter patterns. Rivers throws as good a deep ball as anyone QB in the league, he can burn you in a split second.
Another thing you might see is a 4-5 man front in passing situations with no one in a stance, just kind of standing around. This makes it tough for a shaky line to figure out their assignments. You might see Hali, Studebaker, DJ, D. Williams & Gilberry in a set like this. It makes running a zone blitz off one edge or the other almost impossible to block. Rivers will just throw the ball up to his big receivers, hoping they'll make a play.
On offense, the Chiefs need to do two things especially well. They will run the ball with Charles & Jones. But they need to take a few shots downfield to keep the Charger safeties honest, otherwise they will continue cheating up into the box to stop the inside running game. Charlie Weis needs to take a few shots down the field, in the 30-35-yard range. You could see rookie TE Tony Moeaki run a seam route down the hash mark or put Dexter McCluster in motion out of the slot in an effort to back those safeties up for good.
Another factor could be rookie return man Javier Arenas & the field position changes he can create for the Chiefs. Just one big return could change both momentum & field position enough to keep Kansas City in the game. Arrowhead will be rockin' tonight, been a while since MNF broadcast from Kansas City plus it's the home opener. If the Chiefs can keep the crowd involved early on, they can & will win this game. If they are quickly down by double digits, it will be a sad night out at the Sports Complex.
Final score: Kansas City 27 San Diego 24
MNF Play: Kansas City +4 1/2 is my play today, it's too many points to give a divisional foe on the road in a home opener. Especially without three of their stud players.
6 PM ESPN
I like the Ravens in this game, they're my AFC Super Bowl pick plus the Jets are one of my three over-hyped teams I expect to disappoint in 2010. This game matches the Ravens Jim Harbaugh pitted against his former defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan, the Jets' coach. Both teams have superior defenses with extremely aggressive game plans. Both defenses find themselves somewhat limited right now because of injuries. The Ravens are missing their All-Pro safety Ed Reed, currently sitting on the PUP list after undergoing hip surgery. He, along with linebackers Ray Lewis & Terrell Suggs, have to be accounted for on every snap. Reed's absence will cause the Baltimore secondary to scheme a little more conservatively. The Jets are without linebacker Calvin Pace, their leading sacker from a year ago & they just don't have another rusher who can pick up the slack. They will have to gameplan other pressure options to create problems for Raven QB Joe Flacco. The one thing in New York's favor is their secondary can extend the play with their superior coverage, giving their pass rushers another second or two to reach the quarterback.
Both teams have excellent running games, the Jets led by power runner Shonn Green, the Ravens by the multi-talented Ray Rice. I give a slight edge in receivers to Baltimore, both offensive lines are excellent. So where is the edge Baltimore needs to win this game? At quarterback, Joe Flacco has proven himself to be a better decision maker & his deep ball is much better than his counterpart, the Jets Mark Sanchez. In a league that is driven by quarterback play, Sanchez has shown himself to be very erratic at times, throwing too many interceptions & trying to force the ball into covered receivers. He has trouble throwing the ball away, he consistently tries to make plays when there is nothing available. This is a lesson Flacco has just about mastered.
This should be a real head-knocker. But, as I said in my preseason predictions, the Jets, Cowboys & Bengals could be big disappointments this season, Dallas & Cincy have already lost in week one, I think the Jets will as well.
Final score: Baltimore 20 New York 13
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AT THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
9:15 ESPN
The talent the Chargers will be without could come very close to evening out the obvious advantage San Diego had a few weeks ago. Vincent Jackson, the team leader in receiving yards & touchdown receptions is currently suspended plus he's been withholding his services from the team in search of a new contract. So far it hasn't worked. Also currently holding out is starting left tackle Marcus McNeill. His replacement, Brandyn Dombrowski has a total of 3 preseason starts at left tackle. Former defensive player of the year, Shawne Merriman, will also miss tonight's game. Second year man Larry English will get the start. The Chiefs had listed rookie Dexter McCluster as doubtful with an undisclosed illness until yesterday when he was upgraded to questionable. Since questionable usually means 50-50 & McCluster is not a starter anyway, just a situational player, my guess is he'll get 15-20 snaps tonight, which is a big deal for the Chiefs' effort. A player with McCluster's game-breaking ability has to be accounted for on every snap, so even if he's not the ballcarrier or the primary receiver, the defense still has to pay attention to him. There's a huge drop-off from McCluster to his replacement, Quinten Lawrence.
The Chargers' major advantage is at the quarterback position. Phillip Rivers runs one of the most dangerous vertical passing games in the entire league. Losing Jackson will affect their play calling. Patrick Crayton was picked up from Dallas last week, but he's a #3 receiver at best & Jackson was a #1. Malcolm Floyd will move into Jackson's spot & Legedu Naanee will fill the #2 spot. Gone is LaDainian Tomlinson now replaced by rookie Ryan Mathews who should be a natural in this offense. I question his blitz pick-up pass blocking tho, it's something he's never had to do.
How Dombrowski holds up against Chiefs' OLB Tamba Hali will determine a lot. If the Chargers have to give him help with a back or tight end to chip block Hali, it takes a receiver out of their patterns, making them easier to defense for the Kansas City secondary. Rookie safeties Kendrick Lewis & Eric Berry will have to be careful to not over commit to the run or shorter patterns. Rivers throws as good a deep ball as anyone QB in the league, he can burn you in a split second.
Another thing you might see is a 4-5 man front in passing situations with no one in a stance, just kind of standing around. This makes it tough for a shaky line to figure out their assignments. You might see Hali, Studebaker, DJ, D. Williams & Gilberry in a set like this. It makes running a zone blitz off one edge or the other almost impossible to block. Rivers will just throw the ball up to his big receivers, hoping they'll make a play.
On offense, the Chiefs need to do two things especially well. They will run the ball with Charles & Jones. But they need to take a few shots downfield to keep the Charger safeties honest, otherwise they will continue cheating up into the box to stop the inside running game. Charlie Weis needs to take a few shots down the field, in the 30-35-yard range. You could see rookie TE Tony Moeaki run a seam route down the hash mark or put Dexter McCluster in motion out of the slot in an effort to back those safeties up for good.
Another factor could be rookie return man Javier Arenas & the field position changes he can create for the Chiefs. Just one big return could change both momentum & field position enough to keep Kansas City in the game. Arrowhead will be rockin' tonight, been a while since MNF broadcast from Kansas City plus it's the home opener. If the Chiefs can keep the crowd involved early on, they can & will win this game. If they are quickly down by double digits, it will be a sad night out at the Sports Complex.
Final score: Kansas City 27 San Diego 24
MNF Play: Kansas City +4 1/2 is my play today, it's too many points to give a divisional foe on the road in a home opener. Especially without three of their stud players.
Comments