CHIEFS - COLTS PREVIEW
It's pretty much unanimous everywhere I look, TV, sportstalk radio & the internet, the Chiefs will not win at Indianapolis on Sunday. I haven't seen, heard or read one pundit who picks Kansas City. I don't care what anyone else thinks, standing alone on something isn't new for me. But today I'm going to layout my case for a Chiefs' win & a few thoughts on the coverage of the game.
The fact that everyone is picking Indy, makes me think the Chiefs can win. This is not the winless Buffalo Bills playing at the Jets, Steelers or Saints. It's a vastly improved Chiefs team playing a suddenly vulnerable Colts squad. Indy has injury issues at safety, running back & wide receiver. With a 3rd string safety starting, Chiefs' tight end Tony Moeaki could be a major contributor. Only starter Joseph Addai is healthy at running back & 2nd leading receiver Austin Collie hasn't practiced all week, Reggie Wayne has a sore knee that has limited him in practice & Anthony Gonzalez is out again this week. The Colts get Pierre Garcon back & with Dallas Clark, Indy still fields receivers that can ruin your day.
In their two losses, the Colts have surrendered 174 & 257 yards rushing. The Colts defense starts with both defensive ends, Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis tearing upfield to disrupt the opposing QB. If it's a pass play, these two can be devastating getting to the quarterback. But when they come charging across the line, they leave large cutback lanes for runners to exploit. If the opponent runs succesfully in these lanes, it slows the charge of Freeney & Mathis thereby giving the QB a split second longer to find a target. Is Ryan O'Callaghan returning at right tackle? Against Robert Mathis, O'Callaghan would have a big advantage in run blocking but like Barry Richardson, neither are quick enough to consistently keep Mathis off of Matt Cassel in obvious passing situations.
It is imperative the Chiefs run the ball consistently & effectively. The more time the Chiefs offense is on the field, the less time Peyton Manning has to score right? Time of possession is overrated when you're playing the Colts. Last season Miami kept the ball for over 45-minutes, but in less than 15-minutes, the Colts scored enough to beat Miami 27-23. Still, if I'm Todd Haley, I want my offense on the field for as long as possible. As I've said many times before, the NFL is so quarterback-driven. The Colts have a huge advantage over Kansas City in the Manning-Cassel matchup.
So where do the Chiefs have areas they can exploit? They run the ball well & have a two-headed monster in the backfield that should allow them to move the ball effectively & to score. As their secondary creeps up into the box, quick passes on the perimeter to Bowe, Chambers & McCluster should be effective if Cassel can be accurate. As I speculated before, a new safety could be exploited as well, provided Cassel gets time to throw to his tight end.
Another area is the Chiefs' run defense, something we haven't had in many years. Romeo Crennel's scheme's have worked very well so far thru three games.If Kansas City can hold Indy down to their season average of 74-yards, it makes Peyton Manning's job that much tougher. Tamba Hali could be huge coming off the edge, but I've seen better blitz packages against the Colts coming from the "A" gaps, right up the middle. Manning isn't fleet afoot, but he does throw well on the run. Flushing him from the pocket is still preferable to letting him stand flat-footed or stepping up to throw the ball.
Romeo Crennel is 6-0 against Peyton Manning as a coordinator & don't give me that bull that it was all Bill Belichick. Since Crennel departed New England after their third Super Bowl win in 2005, the Patriots are 1-5 versus the Colts. I know personnel changes yearly, but the disparity between the two records is obvious. Crennel could very well have Manning's number. But his defenders must not lose their focus, don't lose gap responsibility, not bite on play action fakes(Eric Berry has been fooled 3 times this season, all for touchdowns) & keep the pressure on every single snap.
In reality, I don't see the Chiefs holding Indianapolis under 20 points, so they are going to have to score & score consistently. Special teams are a part of the Chiefs that can steal a touchdown or set-up an easy score. This is the biggest game in Kansas City Chiefs recent history. Win & they should be a solid playoff contender, not a Super Bowl contender, but definitely a playoff contender. Hang tough, play competitively but lose, not satisfying as I'm not big on "moral victories" but not fatal. Get blown out & the Chiefs are back to square one, doubting themselves as serious playoff contenders. I will be shocked if they get destroyed Sunday, I really believe the Chiefs have an advantage in the coaching, especially in the coordinators.
If Kansas City wins, the media will give them little to no credit, all you'll hear is "what is wrong with the Colts?" If Indy wins, it will be "Kansas City was a bogus 3-0 team, the Colts proved that." Now if Kansas City were to win by 10+ points, they might get this, "we'll see how good they really are next week in Houston." There's no real upside if they win except their fan base will believe & tickets for the Jacksonville game on the 24th will begin selling rapidly. Of course the other upside is they'll still be in first place with no worse than a 2-game lead. Kansas City 27 Indianapolis 24
The fact that everyone is picking Indy, makes me think the Chiefs can win. This is not the winless Buffalo Bills playing at the Jets, Steelers or Saints. It's a vastly improved Chiefs team playing a suddenly vulnerable Colts squad. Indy has injury issues at safety, running back & wide receiver. With a 3rd string safety starting, Chiefs' tight end Tony Moeaki could be a major contributor. Only starter Joseph Addai is healthy at running back & 2nd leading receiver Austin Collie hasn't practiced all week, Reggie Wayne has a sore knee that has limited him in practice & Anthony Gonzalez is out again this week. The Colts get Pierre Garcon back & with Dallas Clark, Indy still fields receivers that can ruin your day.
In their two losses, the Colts have surrendered 174 & 257 yards rushing. The Colts defense starts with both defensive ends, Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis tearing upfield to disrupt the opposing QB. If it's a pass play, these two can be devastating getting to the quarterback. But when they come charging across the line, they leave large cutback lanes for runners to exploit. If the opponent runs succesfully in these lanes, it slows the charge of Freeney & Mathis thereby giving the QB a split second longer to find a target. Is Ryan O'Callaghan returning at right tackle? Against Robert Mathis, O'Callaghan would have a big advantage in run blocking but like Barry Richardson, neither are quick enough to consistently keep Mathis off of Matt Cassel in obvious passing situations.
It is imperative the Chiefs run the ball consistently & effectively. The more time the Chiefs offense is on the field, the less time Peyton Manning has to score right? Time of possession is overrated when you're playing the Colts. Last season Miami kept the ball for over 45-minutes, but in less than 15-minutes, the Colts scored enough to beat Miami 27-23. Still, if I'm Todd Haley, I want my offense on the field for as long as possible. As I've said many times before, the NFL is so quarterback-driven. The Colts have a huge advantage over Kansas City in the Manning-Cassel matchup.
So where do the Chiefs have areas they can exploit? They run the ball well & have a two-headed monster in the backfield that should allow them to move the ball effectively & to score. As their secondary creeps up into the box, quick passes on the perimeter to Bowe, Chambers & McCluster should be effective if Cassel can be accurate. As I speculated before, a new safety could be exploited as well, provided Cassel gets time to throw to his tight end.
Another area is the Chiefs' run defense, something we haven't had in many years. Romeo Crennel's scheme's have worked very well so far thru three games.If Kansas City can hold Indy down to their season average of 74-yards, it makes Peyton Manning's job that much tougher. Tamba Hali could be huge coming off the edge, but I've seen better blitz packages against the Colts coming from the "A" gaps, right up the middle. Manning isn't fleet afoot, but he does throw well on the run. Flushing him from the pocket is still preferable to letting him stand flat-footed or stepping up to throw the ball.
Romeo Crennel is 6-0 against Peyton Manning as a coordinator & don't give me that bull that it was all Bill Belichick. Since Crennel departed New England after their third Super Bowl win in 2005, the Patriots are 1-5 versus the Colts. I know personnel changes yearly, but the disparity between the two records is obvious. Crennel could very well have Manning's number. But his defenders must not lose their focus, don't lose gap responsibility, not bite on play action fakes(Eric Berry has been fooled 3 times this season, all for touchdowns) & keep the pressure on every single snap.
In reality, I don't see the Chiefs holding Indianapolis under 20 points, so they are going to have to score & score consistently. Special teams are a part of the Chiefs that can steal a touchdown or set-up an easy score. This is the biggest game in Kansas City Chiefs recent history. Win & they should be a solid playoff contender, not a Super Bowl contender, but definitely a playoff contender. Hang tough, play competitively but lose, not satisfying as I'm not big on "moral victories" but not fatal. Get blown out & the Chiefs are back to square one, doubting themselves as serious playoff contenders. I will be shocked if they get destroyed Sunday, I really believe the Chiefs have an advantage in the coaching, especially in the coordinators.
If Kansas City wins, the media will give them little to no credit, all you'll hear is "what is wrong with the Colts?" If Indy wins, it will be "Kansas City was a bogus 3-0 team, the Colts proved that." Now if Kansas City were to win by 10+ points, they might get this, "we'll see how good they really are next week in Houston." There's no real upside if they win except their fan base will believe & tickets for the Jacksonville game on the 24th will begin selling rapidly. Of course the other upside is they'll still be in first place with no worse than a 2-game lead. Kansas City 27 Indianapolis 24
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