WILDCARD PREVIEW & WHO'S GOING, WHO'S STAYING?
NEW ORLEANS AT SEATTLE
Kickoff 3:30 CT on NBC
Current line & total New Orleans -10 1/2 & 49 1/2
At first glance you wonder if there's anyway the Seahawks could win this game. There is, but honestly, their chances are really slim. So many things would have to happen, outside of an injury to Drew Brees, for Seattle to upset the defending champs, well let me lay it out for you.
1. The Saints are down to their 3rd & 4th string running backs, Reggie Bush & Julius Jones. Neither scored a rushing touchdown this season. Neither runs well between the tackles & they are not every down backs. The Seahawks need to completely shutdown the Saint running game making them one-dimensional.
2. The Saints have two other injuries of note, TE Jimmy Graham & safety Malcom Jenkins. In the last four games, Graham, subbing for Jeremy Shockey, has caught 21 passes & 5 touchdowns. Malcom Jenkins has been the co-MVP of the Saints' defense. Both could be huge losses coupled with RB's Pierre Thomas & Chris Ivory.
3. Brees is one of the leagues top-5 quarterbacks, but he has thrown 22 interceptions in 2010. When the Saints become one-dimensional, Brees has thrown picks.
4. The New Orleans' defense rode a wave of turnovers all the way to the Super Bowl. Darren Sharper & company were the league's most opportunistic defense in '09. Those picks & fumble recoveries haven't been there this season.
5. The Seahawks have a decided advantage in kick returns & coverage. Seattle is 10th in the league in kickoff returns in average & they have brought 3 back for touchdowns. New Orleans ranks 24th in the league in coverage. The Seahwaks rank 9th in pint return average while the Saints are 23rd in punt coverage. Seattle will need Leon Washington to make a major impact returning kicks either with a return touchdown or returns that alter field position in favor of the 'Hawks.
6. Matt Hasselback threw only 12 touchdown passes while suffering 17 interceptions. He will need a near-flawless performance for the Seahawks to be competitive in this game.
7. The Saints have never won a road playoff game in franchise history, never.
8. Seattle played 4 playoff teams, losing to 3 of them(KC, Seattle & Atlanta) but beat Chicago on the road. New Orleans beat Pittsburgh, Atlanta & Seattle while losing to Atlanta & Baltimore.
Considering the 7-9 Seahawks would have to give a mistake-free, over-achieving effort to beat the defending Super Bowl champs, I think it could be close for the reasons I laid out above but, in the end.......New Orleans 27 Seattle 17
NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS
Kickoff 7:00 PM CT on NBC
Current line & total Indianapolis 2 1/2 & 44 1/2
Colts are 5-1 against Rex Ryan defenses, the one loss coming last season after Indy started 14-0 & benched their starters at halftime in game they were leading. Peyton Manning has been kryptonite against Ryan. But Manning doesn't have his full compliment of offensive weapons in this game while the Jets have added Antonio Cromartie to a pass defense Manning roughed up last year in the AFC Championship game. I still like the Colts for the simple reason Manning is almost unbeatable in home playoff games. The Jets offense is erratic & if Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis can keep Mark Sanchez jumping around in the pocket, they can cripple this offense. Joseph Addai needs a big game running the ball for Manning's play-action passing game to be effective. With Darrelle Revis & Cromartie on the corners, don't look for Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon to produce too much. Blair White & TE Jacob Tamme will need to get open over the middle & keep the chains moving. The Jets don't put much pressure on the quarterback, so Colt receivers should have time to run their routes & get some separation. Ryan will dial up a number of blitzes to make Manning dump the ball quickly & that's when White & Tamme will be needed the most.
The Jets lost to Green Bay, Baltimore, New England & Chicago. They beat Pittsburgh & New England. Indy lost to New England & Philly but their only win over a playoff team was a 19-9 victory over Kansas City. But until Ryan beats Manning, I'll take the Colts. Indianapolis 23 NY Jets 20
BALTIMORE AT KANSAS CITY
Kickoff 12 Noon CT on CBS
Current line & total Baltimore -3 & 40 1/2
Nearly every single pundit, writer & talking head is taking the Ravens. The dissenters include Mike Golic, Merrill Hoge, Mike Ditka & Keyshawn Johnson, but that makes it about 50-4. There are any number of reasons to make that selection. I'll give you a number of stats, facts & a little opinion.
1. The Chiefs have lost 7 consecutive playoff games which ties them for the all-time NFL record. Three of those losses came at Arrowhead.
2. Since 2000, the Ravens are 6-3 in road playoff games. They beat New England last year at Foxboro 33-14, in a game they were 3-point underdogs.
3. The Chiefs had a 7-1 home record, but that loss was just a week ago & it was a bad one, they were pounded by the Raiders 31-10.
4. Baltimore won 12 games this season, but they didn't blow people away, their only double-digit wins were against Denver(14), Miami(16) & Carolina(24). So they won 9 games by 9-points or less. Playoff teams they defeated were the Jets, Saints & Steelers(without Rothlisberger) & were beaten by Atlanta, New England & the Steelers. In every loss, they held the lead in the 4th quarter.
5. The Chiefs played only 2 playoff teams, both on the road, losing 19-9 at Indy & pounding Seattle 42-24. The only other opponent with a winning record was Jacksonville, who they beat 42-20.
6. The Chiefs led the NFL in rushing, Baltimore was 5th, allowing just 93-yards per game. The Chiefs' rushing defense dropped 8 spots in the final 8 games as they surrendered 200-yard rushing games three times. The Ravens ranked 14th in rushing stats with 114-yards per game. I believe this is where this game will be won or lost. If Kansas City can approach their season average of 164-yards per game, I believe they will win because that will do three things. First, it will keep ballhawk safety Ed Reed closer to the line of scrimmage & not playing centerfield looking for a Matt Cassel mistake to intercept. Second, If they do run for 164-yards, I believe Jamaal Charles will bust one or two long runs, he's not a grinder & if Charles scores twice, they will win. Third, it should make their play-action passes more effective.
7. Matt Cassel has never played in a game with the magnitude of this Wildcard playoff. How will he react? Was last Sunday an indicator? I think Cassel is the true wildcard in this Wildcard game.
8. Joe Flacco has been erratic this season, but his playoff record is quite impressive. The Chiefs pass rush seldom gets to the QB in less than 2-seconds, most of their sacks are created by excellent coverage. The Raven WR's won't blow by anyone, they're not that fast. But Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Derrick Mason are veterans who know how to get open against zone coverage but struggle against good man-to-man defense.
9. Brandon Albert will need help to handle either DE Haloti Ngata or OLB Terrell Suggs. TE's Jake O'Connell or Leonard Pope will have to chip in blocking this pair.
10. Center Casey Weigmann will need help blocking Kelly Gregg or Terrence Cody. Guard Ryan Lilja or K.C.'s fullback will be responsible for Ray Lewis, not an easy assignment.
11. Dewayne Bowe will have to come up big both catching & running after the catch. He is a physical mismatch for the Raven corners. Josh Wilson is only 5' 9" & Chris Carr is 5' 10" & neither play a particularly physical style of pass defense.
12. The Baltimore locker room has been somewhat divided because the offense has really been a disappointment from time to time this season. They have all the tools, especially when you include TE Todd Heap & RB's Ray Rice & Willis MaGahee, but they have struggled to put teams away this season hence the slim margins of victory.
I think the Chiefs will be prepared, they have superior coordinators to almost anyone they play. Todd Haley with his 4th down gambling & erratic clock management scare me. John Harbaugh makes very few mistakes but his O-Coordinator Cam Cameron makes some bizarre calls at times. The Ravens were my Super Bowl pick this season & I have seen every single game they played in 2010, so I feel like I know them almost as well as I know the Chiefs. These 2010 Ravens can be had & sometime on Sunday afternoon they will give the Chiefs an opening to win this game, can Matt Cassel take advantage of this opportunity? Can Dexter McCluster regain his playmaker status with a game breaker? Can Tamba Hali force Flacco to fumble or throw an interception? Who am I kidding? I'm a blatant homer all the way, screw objectivity, I say Kansas City 24 Baltimore 23.
GREEN BAY AT PHILADELPHIA
Kickoff 3:30 CT on FOX
Current line & total Philadelphia -3 & 46 1/2
This game could very well be the best one of the weekend. They met on opening day at Philly & the Pack prevailed 27-20. Then starter Kevin Kolb was knocked out of the game & Michael Vick came in mid-2nd quarter. He rushed for 103-yards & threw for 175-yards. In Vick's first 6 starts, he threw for 11 touchdowns, only one interception & was sacked 11 times. But in the next 8 games he threw 10 TD's with 6 interceptions & was sacked 23 times. The New York Giants gave the rest of the league a blueprint on how to beat the Eagles. It's really quite simple, put a lot of pressure on Vick, make him move to his right & when you get a chance to hit him, make him know you were there. Whack him hard. Vick was beat up enough to sit out the final game. The Packers can play this type of defense all day long. They get after the QB as good as anyone finishing 2nd in the league with 47 sacks. D-coordinator Dom Capers brings pressure for every where & it's different on every snap. Look for the Packer corners to play man-to-man defense against DeSean Jackson & Jeremy Maclin, jamming them off their routes at the line of scrimmage. Green Bay brings two of the leagues best defenders, OLB Clay Mathews & CB Charles Woodson. I think if the Eagles are to win, RN LeSean McCoy will need to be the difference maker, he's excellent running draws & delays plus is a superior receiver in screen plays. McCoy led his team with 78 receptions.
The Packers also have a superior QB in Aaron Rodgers. He is a better passer than Vick & he can make plays with his feet. He ran for 356-yards & 4 TD's. Rodgers threw 28 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions & was sacked 31 times but more than half of those came in the first 6 games. The Packers main weakness is a total lack of a running game since Ryan Grant was injured opening day. In their last three games, they ran for 60 vs. the Bears, 119 vs. the Giants & 143 at New England, so it's possible they could mount enough of a running threat to keep the Philly defense honest. The Eagles will blitz in almost every passing situation & Rodgers has had some big plays against the blitz. Better get him quickly otherwise he can kill you. Green Bay has a number of productive receivers, 4 WR's with over 45 catches & 550-yards.
The Packers are the hot pick which scares me but they were my preseason NFC Super Bowl pick & I'm stickin' with 'em. Green Bay 31 Philadelphia 24
Now for the who's going, who's staying?
While I was pounding out this post, Jim Harbaugh agreed to a 5-year deal to coach the San Francisco Forty-Niners. After flirting with Harbaugh, the Dolphins reluctantly told Tony Sparano he would be retained. I'm guessing he won't get too comfortable on his hot seat. Josh McDaniels will interview for the offensive coordinator post in Minnesota. Jeff Fisher will return as Titan's coach next season.
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett announced today he will enter the NFL draft. Also turning pro is a trio of Alabama players all expected to go in round one. Former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, WR Julio Jones & DT Marcell Dareus will go pro. Mizzou All-Big 12 DE Aldon Smith will also enter the NFL draft so the Tigers have lost their best offensive & defensive players to the NFL. Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles decided to return to the Sooner program for his senior season. The All-American wide receiver caught 131 passes for over 1,600-yards & 14 touchdowns so his return with QB Landry Jones will make Sooner fans smile. Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt will leave Madison early for the NFL.
If you are going to watch the Cotton Bowl tonight, 7:00 CT on FOX, you could see two of the best defensive players in the nation. LSU has this huge cornerback Patrick Peterson, wears #7, he's worth watching. Peterson is 6' 1" & nearly 215. He runs well & is the best shutdown corner in college football this year. The other player is from Texas A&M, Von Miller, 6' 3" 243 wearing #40. Miller is an excellent pass rusher, super fast off the edge.
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