NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Last week wasn't too kind, I went 1-3, but I did pick Kansas City in an obvious "homer" selection, so I'm sayin' I was 2-2. Anybody have a problem with that? The Seahawks upset of defending champion New Orleans was missed by about 99.9% of anyone willing to put it in print or out on the airwaves, it was a shocker. That game did feature the greatest touchdown run in any playoff game I can remember. Since I'm a geezer, that means I've seen a helluva lot of playoff games in my time, sometimes my on-again-off-again memory fails me, but I'll stand by that assertion as it was the best. The Colts lost by a point when their coach Jim Caldwell called one the strangest timeouts in NFL playoff history. He allowed the Jets to save a down, stop the clock, catch their breath & get a play in to put them in field goal range. I'm not saying the Jets couldn't have won the game anyway, it's just that Herm, er uh, Jim Caldwell really helped out a team that was on the ropes. Green Bay won like I thought they would, their defense is playing at such a high level right now. Kansas City made a game of it for about 29 1/2 minutes, then the Ravens came to their senses & put them away. On to the Divisional round.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH
Saturday 3:30 PM CT on CBS
Current spread & total Pittsburgh -3 & 37
To me this is classic playoff football. Two teams that really know each other & really dislike each other. Eight of the last nine games have been won by 4 or fewer points. In the last 17 meetings, both teams have scored 302 points. Baltimore won in September by 3 during Ben Roethlesberger's suspension & the Steelers won by 3 in December. The Ravens are a road-tested playoff team & all four of Pittsburgh's losses were to playoff teams.
These teams are built very much alike, both led by their excellent defenses. Neither team should be able to run on the other, so it will come down to the quarterbacks, their receivers, pass protection & a wildcard on defense. When Roethlisberger has started, Pittsburgh has won 6-straight from the Ravens & despite their leaky offensive line, Big Ben is super tough to tackle. The other spot I think the Steelers have an advantage, however slim it is, is with safety Troy Polamalu. Ray Lewis & Ed Reed were game changers for a long time, but no longer have the consistent impact of Polamalu, he makes at least two game-changing play every week. Heinz field has the worst kicking surface in the NFL & combined with tricky winds at the open end of the stadium, this place can be a nightmare for visiting kickers.
I expect another very close game with the Steelers defeating my AFC Super Bowl pick.
Pittsburgh 20 Baltimore 17
GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA
Saturday 7 PM CT on FOX
Current spread & total Atlanta -2 1/2 & 45 1/2
Atlanta is 20-2 at home since Matt Ryan became their starting quarterback. Green Bay has won there last three against tough competition, NY Giants, Chicago & Philadelphia. These two teams, to me, represent the future of the NFC, they are the emerging powers that should be very competitive for years. They played each other Thanksgiving weekend with the Falcons prevailing 20-17 on a 47-yard Matt Bryant field goal with 9-seconds remaining. In that game the Falcon defense was scorched by Packer QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 341-yards, but Green Bay couldn't run the ball anywhere on the field, especially in the redzone & it cost them. But Green Bay has shown the ability to run the ball as of late & that, along with their defensive superiority, will allow the Packers to advance to the NFC Championship game. I'm sticking with my NFC Super Bowl pick in this one. Green Bay 24 Atlanta 20
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO
Sunday Noon CT on FOX
Current spread & total Chicago -10 & 40
You couldn't pay me to bet on this game, I'll certainly watch with great interest, but I haven't a clue what's going to happen. If Green Bay wins Saturday night & the Seahawks shock the world again this week, Seattle would host the NFC Championship game with a 9-9 record. Think that won't have a lot of people whining & complaining? This will be Jay Cutler's first playoff game & frankly that's what scares me about the Bears. He's shaky sometimes & you never know what he'll do. What we can count on is the Bears will play great defense, you won't see the missed tackles you saw last week in the Saints game. Another thing that baffled me was Pete Carroll saying Seattle would kick to Devin Hester, which could be a devastating decision. The Bears, unlike New Orleans, can run the ball. Those two things are the two most important things in outdoor playoff football, running the ball & playing solid defense. Since the Bears can do both & I believe the Seahawks would be hard pressed to duplicate what we watched last Saturday, I'm going with the home favorite. Chicago 30 Seattle 17
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND
Sunday 3:30 PM CT on CBS
Current spread & total New England -9 & 45
I have some pretty strong feelings about this game & I think they're well founded. The Patriots, led by Bill Belichick & Tom Brady for the past 10-years are the Gold Standard of the National Football League. Three Super Bowl wins in 4 appearances, eight playoff seasons out of ten & in the 2 seasons they failed to make the playoffs, they were 10-6 & 9-7. This record of performance is unmatched over the past decade. And yet, Jets' coach Rex Ryan & a few of his players, most notably Antonio Cromartie, continue to poke the Pats with a stick trying to antagonize them. Reggie Jackson, himself a great trash talker, said this morning on ESPN "win something, then you can talk, till then, shut up & play." They did the same thing before their Monday night game in Foxboro last December 6th. The result was a humiliating 45-3 beatdown on national TV. So what has changed since then? Not much on the Patriots' side of the ledger. They have scored 31 or more points in 9-straight games. The Jets have struggled, one week their offense can't score, the next week the defense gets lit up for a bunch of points.
New York will have reserve tackle Wayne Hunter starting on the right side in place of Damien Woody who suffered an Achilles injury. Not a good thing having new starters in a road playoff game. Jets' QB Mark Sanchez has been wildly unpredictable & has a very sore shoulder. He makes too many bad decisions, especially when faced with confusing defensive looks & schemes. Another potential problem for the Jets is big-mouthed cornerback Antonio Cromartie who has really struggled of late. He was brought in from San Diego to shore up the side opposite All-World corner Derrell Revis, it hasn't been a rousing success. On Tuesday, Cromartie told reporters in the Jets' locker room "Tom Brady's an asshole, f**k him!" Brady played it very cool not wanting to get into a pissing match with Cromartie. But I believe Brady will exact some punishment on Cromartie & the Jets. There isn't a more fierce competitor playing quarterback in the NFL than Brady. Rex Ryan keeps saying this game "is about me versus Bill Belichick." If that's all this game is about, you lose Rex. It won't be 45-3 again, but more like New England 34 NY Jets 13
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH
Saturday 3:30 PM CT on CBS
Current spread & total Pittsburgh -3 & 37
To me this is classic playoff football. Two teams that really know each other & really dislike each other. Eight of the last nine games have been won by 4 or fewer points. In the last 17 meetings, both teams have scored 302 points. Baltimore won in September by 3 during Ben Roethlesberger's suspension & the Steelers won by 3 in December. The Ravens are a road-tested playoff team & all four of Pittsburgh's losses were to playoff teams.
These teams are built very much alike, both led by their excellent defenses. Neither team should be able to run on the other, so it will come down to the quarterbacks, their receivers, pass protection & a wildcard on defense. When Roethlisberger has started, Pittsburgh has won 6-straight from the Ravens & despite their leaky offensive line, Big Ben is super tough to tackle. The other spot I think the Steelers have an advantage, however slim it is, is with safety Troy Polamalu. Ray Lewis & Ed Reed were game changers for a long time, but no longer have the consistent impact of Polamalu, he makes at least two game-changing play every week. Heinz field has the worst kicking surface in the NFL & combined with tricky winds at the open end of the stadium, this place can be a nightmare for visiting kickers.
I expect another very close game with the Steelers defeating my AFC Super Bowl pick.
Pittsburgh 20 Baltimore 17
GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA
Saturday 7 PM CT on FOX
Current spread & total Atlanta -2 1/2 & 45 1/2
Atlanta is 20-2 at home since Matt Ryan became their starting quarterback. Green Bay has won there last three against tough competition, NY Giants, Chicago & Philadelphia. These two teams, to me, represent the future of the NFC, they are the emerging powers that should be very competitive for years. They played each other Thanksgiving weekend with the Falcons prevailing 20-17 on a 47-yard Matt Bryant field goal with 9-seconds remaining. In that game the Falcon defense was scorched by Packer QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 341-yards, but Green Bay couldn't run the ball anywhere on the field, especially in the redzone & it cost them. But Green Bay has shown the ability to run the ball as of late & that, along with their defensive superiority, will allow the Packers to advance to the NFC Championship game. I'm sticking with my NFC Super Bowl pick in this one. Green Bay 24 Atlanta 20
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO
Sunday Noon CT on FOX
Current spread & total Chicago -10 & 40
You couldn't pay me to bet on this game, I'll certainly watch with great interest, but I haven't a clue what's going to happen. If Green Bay wins Saturday night & the Seahawks shock the world again this week, Seattle would host the NFC Championship game with a 9-9 record. Think that won't have a lot of people whining & complaining? This will be Jay Cutler's first playoff game & frankly that's what scares me about the Bears. He's shaky sometimes & you never know what he'll do. What we can count on is the Bears will play great defense, you won't see the missed tackles you saw last week in the Saints game. Another thing that baffled me was Pete Carroll saying Seattle would kick to Devin Hester, which could be a devastating decision. The Bears, unlike New Orleans, can run the ball. Those two things are the two most important things in outdoor playoff football, running the ball & playing solid defense. Since the Bears can do both & I believe the Seahawks would be hard pressed to duplicate what we watched last Saturday, I'm going with the home favorite. Chicago 30 Seattle 17
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND
Sunday 3:30 PM CT on CBS
Current spread & total New England -9 & 45
I have some pretty strong feelings about this game & I think they're well founded. The Patriots, led by Bill Belichick & Tom Brady for the past 10-years are the Gold Standard of the National Football League. Three Super Bowl wins in 4 appearances, eight playoff seasons out of ten & in the 2 seasons they failed to make the playoffs, they were 10-6 & 9-7. This record of performance is unmatched over the past decade. And yet, Jets' coach Rex Ryan & a few of his players, most notably Antonio Cromartie, continue to poke the Pats with a stick trying to antagonize them. Reggie Jackson, himself a great trash talker, said this morning on ESPN "win something, then you can talk, till then, shut up & play." They did the same thing before their Monday night game in Foxboro last December 6th. The result was a humiliating 45-3 beatdown on national TV. So what has changed since then? Not much on the Patriots' side of the ledger. They have scored 31 or more points in 9-straight games. The Jets have struggled, one week their offense can't score, the next week the defense gets lit up for a bunch of points.
New York will have reserve tackle Wayne Hunter starting on the right side in place of Damien Woody who suffered an Achilles injury. Not a good thing having new starters in a road playoff game. Jets' QB Mark Sanchez has been wildly unpredictable & has a very sore shoulder. He makes too many bad decisions, especially when faced with confusing defensive looks & schemes. Another potential problem for the Jets is big-mouthed cornerback Antonio Cromartie who has really struggled of late. He was brought in from San Diego to shore up the side opposite All-World corner Derrell Revis, it hasn't been a rousing success. On Tuesday, Cromartie told reporters in the Jets' locker room "Tom Brady's an asshole, f**k him!" Brady played it very cool not wanting to get into a pissing match with Cromartie. But I believe Brady will exact some punishment on Cromartie & the Jets. There isn't a more fierce competitor playing quarterback in the NFL than Brady. Rex Ryan keeps saying this game "is about me versus Bill Belichick." If that's all this game is about, you lose Rex. It won't be 45-3 again, but more like New England 34 NY Jets 13
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