CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY PREVIEW
Well it's finally here, Championship Sunday when the Super Bowl tournament will have it's two participants to fight over the Lombardi Trophy. For the first time ever, all four teams are led by 1st round draft picks at the quarterback position. Here's how I see these games.
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO
2 PM CT on FOX
Current spread & total: Green Bay 3 1/2 & 43
Weather forecast: cloudy with light breeze, temp at kickoff: 23 degrees
This is the NFL's oldest rivalry between two of the original franchises going back to 1919 & 1921 for Green Bay. These two haven't played each other in the post season since 1941. They've played each other twice a season for decades since they were placed in the NFC North. Since they play each other so often, there is a familiarity, a working knowledge of what to expect from your opponent. You won't see Aaron Rodgers go off like he did last Saturday in Atlanta, the Bears have a much better defense & they know Rodgers, they know Packer coach Mike McCarthy, virtually nothing the Packers do will be a surprise to Chicago tomorrow. The same holds true for The Bear offense vs. the Green Bay defense. No surprises to be found, just that familiarity. In 2010, the home team won both matchups. Green Bay was my preseason pick from the NFC to go to the Super Bowl.
Both teams had shaky offensive lines during the season's 1st half, both solidified their pass protection & Rodgers is far superior as a scrambler & runner. Cutler has the big gun, but it gets him in trouble from time to time. This is the best defense Cutler has faced all year. The Packer back-7 on defense is the best in the league in my opinion, they cover, they rush the passer & they seldom make a mental error. They have a bunch of ballhawks looking for the opportunity to change both field position & momentum with a turnover.
Chicago has shown the better running attack with Matt Forte. The Bears love throwing the ball to their backs on flares & screens, getting them out in space. Green Bay's running game has been hit & miss. Rookie James Starks has staked his claim to be the starter & so far he has done just enough to keep the job. Since losing Ryan Clark, the Packer running game has sputtered, but lately they have turned it around somewhat. If Green Bay can run for 85 or more yards, it should keep the Bear defense honest. The Chicago defense might be the best tackling group in the NFC, they also create a good pass rush with just their down linemen.
The difference in this game as I see it is the performance disparity in the QB's. Rodgers is simply better than Chicago's Jake Cutler. He's more consistent, more athletic outside the pocket as a runner, he has more & better options with his group of receivers & he doesn't make the terrible turnovers Cutler has been known for in the past. In a quarterback driven league, in what should be a close game, I'll take the better quarterback & I have little doubt Rodgers is the better QB. Green Bay 24 Chicago 13
NY JETS AT PITTSBURGH
5:30 PM CT on CBS
Current spread & total: Pittsburgh 3 1/2 & 38 1/2
Weather forecast: Bitter cold, kickoff temperature in single digits, wind chill -10
The Jets sort of kept their mouths shut all week, but before taking off today for Pittsburgh, they let it all out. "Jet fans should get the champagne on ice", "We're simply the better team", "We do a better job of getting to the quarterback," & on & on & on. They just have to talk trash, now the time has come to put up or shut up & go home. There were also a number of comments about Steeler receiver Hines Ward & his blocking style. Ward has long been known as a guy who will literally "knock your block off." The Jets claim he is the "dirtiest player in the league," "he hasn't got the guts to hit you when your looking." The facts as I see them;
1. Pittsburgh stops the run & rushes the passer way better than the Jets do, the stats prove it in a big way.
2. The Jets' secondary is a better covering group, they disguise their coverages & unless they're challenged deep, they can sit on every route, every snap.
3. The Steelers have the speed at wide receiver to stretch New York's coverage. Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown & Emmanuel Sanders can get by you in a blink of an eye.
4. The Jets' offensive line is superior to their counterparts on the Steelers. They are better run blockers as well as doing a better job keeping their quarterback upright.
5. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the most difficult QB's to sack. He's huge, he's very strong & he has the ability to stay on his feet just long enough to spot an open receiver.
6. Both teams have gadget plays. Former Mizzou QB Brad Smith runs the wildcat & is in the middle of just about every gimmick play the Jets run. Former college QB's Hines Ward & Antwan Randle-El give the Steelers a lot of flexibility when it comes to gimmicks & trick plays.
7. Both teams have excellent playmakers at wide receiver. The Jets' tight end, Dustin Keller is an excellent pass receiver, Pittsburgh's Heath Miller is a more complete tight end, he's one hell of a blocker in addition to his ability to get open.
8. These two teams faced each other on December 19th, the Jets hung on for a 22-19 win. The Steelers were on the 12-yardline throwing passes into the endzone as time expired.
9. Heinz Field is the most difficult place for a placekicker to ply his trade. The turf is better than it used to be, but the wind, especially at the open end of the stadium(rightside for TV viewers). Jet kicker Nick Folk is shaky anyway, he blew a 30-yard try at New England last week & that's on Field Turf.
10. I think the head coaches are a push, where the advantage for Pittsburgh comes in is defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. The Hall of Famer is the absolute best in the game at halftime adjustments.
I like Pittsburgh in this game, I just can't see two #6 seeds going to the Super Bowl & since I already picked 6th-seeded Green Bay to go, I have to stay with the Steelers here. Pittsburgh 20 NY Jets 17
One other note of interest, Tony Gonzalez has stated his intentions to return to the Falcons for his 15th NFL season. Enjoy those games tomorrow!
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO
2 PM CT on FOX
Current spread & total: Green Bay 3 1/2 & 43
Weather forecast: cloudy with light breeze, temp at kickoff: 23 degrees
This is the NFL's oldest rivalry between two of the original franchises going back to 1919 & 1921 for Green Bay. These two haven't played each other in the post season since 1941. They've played each other twice a season for decades since they were placed in the NFC North. Since they play each other so often, there is a familiarity, a working knowledge of what to expect from your opponent. You won't see Aaron Rodgers go off like he did last Saturday in Atlanta, the Bears have a much better defense & they know Rodgers, they know Packer coach Mike McCarthy, virtually nothing the Packers do will be a surprise to Chicago tomorrow. The same holds true for The Bear offense vs. the Green Bay defense. No surprises to be found, just that familiarity. In 2010, the home team won both matchups. Green Bay was my preseason pick from the NFC to go to the Super Bowl.
Both teams had shaky offensive lines during the season's 1st half, both solidified their pass protection & Rodgers is far superior as a scrambler & runner. Cutler has the big gun, but it gets him in trouble from time to time. This is the best defense Cutler has faced all year. The Packer back-7 on defense is the best in the league in my opinion, they cover, they rush the passer & they seldom make a mental error. They have a bunch of ballhawks looking for the opportunity to change both field position & momentum with a turnover.
Chicago has shown the better running attack with Matt Forte. The Bears love throwing the ball to their backs on flares & screens, getting them out in space. Green Bay's running game has been hit & miss. Rookie James Starks has staked his claim to be the starter & so far he has done just enough to keep the job. Since losing Ryan Clark, the Packer running game has sputtered, but lately they have turned it around somewhat. If Green Bay can run for 85 or more yards, it should keep the Bear defense honest. The Chicago defense might be the best tackling group in the NFC, they also create a good pass rush with just their down linemen.
The difference in this game as I see it is the performance disparity in the QB's. Rodgers is simply better than Chicago's Jake Cutler. He's more consistent, more athletic outside the pocket as a runner, he has more & better options with his group of receivers & he doesn't make the terrible turnovers Cutler has been known for in the past. In a quarterback driven league, in what should be a close game, I'll take the better quarterback & I have little doubt Rodgers is the better QB. Green Bay 24 Chicago 13
NY JETS AT PITTSBURGH
5:30 PM CT on CBS
Current spread & total: Pittsburgh 3 1/2 & 38 1/2
Weather forecast: Bitter cold, kickoff temperature in single digits, wind chill -10
The Jets sort of kept their mouths shut all week, but before taking off today for Pittsburgh, they let it all out. "Jet fans should get the champagne on ice", "We're simply the better team", "We do a better job of getting to the quarterback," & on & on & on. They just have to talk trash, now the time has come to put up or shut up & go home. There were also a number of comments about Steeler receiver Hines Ward & his blocking style. Ward has long been known as a guy who will literally "knock your block off." The Jets claim he is the "dirtiest player in the league," "he hasn't got the guts to hit you when your looking." The facts as I see them;
1. Pittsburgh stops the run & rushes the passer way better than the Jets do, the stats prove it in a big way.
2. The Jets' secondary is a better covering group, they disguise their coverages & unless they're challenged deep, they can sit on every route, every snap.
3. The Steelers have the speed at wide receiver to stretch New York's coverage. Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown & Emmanuel Sanders can get by you in a blink of an eye.
4. The Jets' offensive line is superior to their counterparts on the Steelers. They are better run blockers as well as doing a better job keeping their quarterback upright.
5. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the most difficult QB's to sack. He's huge, he's very strong & he has the ability to stay on his feet just long enough to spot an open receiver.
6. Both teams have gadget plays. Former Mizzou QB Brad Smith runs the wildcat & is in the middle of just about every gimmick play the Jets run. Former college QB's Hines Ward & Antwan Randle-El give the Steelers a lot of flexibility when it comes to gimmicks & trick plays.
7. Both teams have excellent playmakers at wide receiver. The Jets' tight end, Dustin Keller is an excellent pass receiver, Pittsburgh's Heath Miller is a more complete tight end, he's one hell of a blocker in addition to his ability to get open.
8. These two teams faced each other on December 19th, the Jets hung on for a 22-19 win. The Steelers were on the 12-yardline throwing passes into the endzone as time expired.
9. Heinz Field is the most difficult place for a placekicker to ply his trade. The turf is better than it used to be, but the wind, especially at the open end of the stadium(rightside for TV viewers). Jet kicker Nick Folk is shaky anyway, he blew a 30-yard try at New England last week & that's on Field Turf.
10. I think the head coaches are a push, where the advantage for Pittsburgh comes in is defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. The Hall of Famer is the absolute best in the game at halftime adjustments.
I like Pittsburgh in this game, I just can't see two #6 seeds going to the Super Bowl & since I already picked 6th-seeded Green Bay to go, I have to stay with the Steelers here. Pittsburgh 20 NY Jets 17
One other note of interest, Tony Gonzalez has stated his intentions to return to the Falcons for his 15th NFL season. Enjoy those games tomorrow!
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