SUPER BOWL PREVIEW
So it's finally upon us, the last football game of the 2010 season, Super Bowl XLV(45). I'm going to miss it, but it's time the powers that be on both sides sit down & get a new collective bargaining agreement hammered out so we don't miss any games next season. The longer this drag out, the more acrimony & fingerpointing we'll be exposed to & who needs that? The NFL draws better TV ratings than the other three(MLB, NBA & NHL) combined. Think about how strong that is, no one wants this to go any further. Both sides were to sit down today for formal talks that include the commissioner & NFLPA president. That's what it's going to take, not a bunch of promises by the commissioner or inflammatory rhetoric by the NFLPA. Let's hope it gets done very soon, if not, there can be no free agency, no player trades for picks in April's draft, plus a certain segment of the league's players will fall out of shape rather quickly. One more thing, Roger Goddell keeps saying the fans want the 18-game schedule. I haven't seen one scientific poll that backs up that claim. I don't want it & I honestly haven't heard from anyone who believe the 18-game regular season expansion is a deal-breaker in these CBA negotiations. As that noted scholar Larry the Cable Guy says "Git er done!"
Had a delicious grilled turkey & swiss on rye w/horseradish, got a cold diet coke & some great blues playin', I'm ready, let's talk Super Bowl.
Super Bowl XLV for the Vince Lombardi Trophy
Kickoff: 5:29 CT broadcast on FOX
Current line & total: Green Bay -2 1/2 & 45
What we know:
In the past 50-years, since 1960, the Steelers & Packers have won 12 NFL titles, that's almost 25%. These are two of most storied franchises in league history. Neither has changed ownership in over 75-years. Their fans are legendary, they travel better than any other fans in pro football. Every major city in this country has both a Steeler & a Packer bar in it. I know there were 4 or 5 of each for the 20-years we lived in Las Vegas. I've been told there's 10 Steeler bars in Tampa & there are 8 Packer bars in L.A.
Every winner in the postseason this year has had the most rushing attempts in each game.
As a starting quarterback in the post season, Ben Roethlisberger has a 10-2 record including two Super Bowl Championships. He doesn't dazzle anyone with his stats, he just wins. This season he has thrown 2 interceptions, zero touchdowns but has won both games. His play late in both games were instrumental in Pittsburgh's victories. The 3rd & 19 completion for 58-yards against Baltimore set up the winning touchdown. The pass was perfectly thrown to Antonio Brown, who had inexplicably gotten behind the Raven secondary. Two weeks ago he rolled out of the pocket, avoiding the rush & completed twin 3rd & 6 passes allowing the Steelers to run out the clock vs. the Jets.
The Packers have 16 takeaways in their last 5 games. Those games were against the Giants, Bears, at Philadelphia, at Atlanta & at Chicago. That's quite a stat, it might be the most impressive stat of all tied to this game.
The winners of the previous 44 Super Bowls are a combined +90 in the turnover ratio.
The Packers haven't trailed by more than 7 points at anytime all season.
Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers played the single best game I ever saw an NFL quarterback play in the playoffs in their 48-21 beatdown of #1 NFC seed Atlanta.
This is why coaches, players, announcers, pundits, me & everybody else who has watched much football say "it all comes down to running the football" or "it all comes down to turnovers." It's hard to ignore the facts I listed above, they just reinforce what football people have been saying for decades.
Pittsburgh is 3rd in the league with a +17 turnover ratio & Green Bay is 4th at +10. The Steelers forced 28 fumbles, the Pack just 16. Green Bay intercepted 24 passes with Pittsburgh right behind them at 21.
Pittsburgh led the league in QB sacks with 48, Green Bay was 2nd with 47. The Steelers have added 7 in their 2 postseason games & Green Bay has 10 in their three post season games.
Pittsburgh was #1 league-wide versus the run by a wide margin, they surrendered just 62-yards per game while Green Bay averaged 114 rushing yards against them this season.
Pittsburgh led the league in points allowed, just 232 in the regular season, that's 14.5 per game. Green Bay finished 2nd, allowing 240, an average of 15.0.
Each team has several dynamic defenders with game-changing ability. Troy Polamalu is the best safety in football, but he's been slowed by an Achilles strain. Outside linebackers James Harrison & Lamar Woodley will knock your block off & sack your quarterback. Nose tackle Casey Hampton clogs the middle occupying blockers. For the Packers, linebacker Clay Matthews is a nightmare of a pass rusher, his first step is amazing. Cornerback Charles Woodsen is like his namesake, Rod Woodsen, I think he's gotten better with age. He can still shut down your best receiver, but he's added rushing the passer in zone blitz situations & he's a terror off the edge. Fellow corner Tramon Williams has become a ballhawk & shutdown corner.
These defenses are coached by the two best defensive coordinators in the game IMO, Hall of Famer Dick Lebeau for Pittsburgh & Dom Capers for the Pack. Both are pioneers of the 3-4 defense & the zone blitz. Both have an uncanny feel for what defense to call in almost every down & distance.
So it's obvious both of these Super Bowl defenses got to this game because they truly are the two best in the National Football League. But......I'm going to be very surprised if both offenses don't score over 20-points apiece. Why you ask? In the last 30 Super Bowls, only once(2008, NYG vs NE) has the winner scored less than 20-points. Over that same period, only five of the games went under a total of 40-points, only five. So regardless of how great these defenses have performed this season, I think we're looking at a minimum of 40-points being scored. Remember, these defensive stats were amassed playing outdoors in crappy weather sometimes, tomorrow will be indoors on a very fast track. Field goal kicking shouldn't be an issue in this dome like it is in Lambeau or Heinz Field, two graveyards for visiting placekickers.
So how do I take a side, predict an outcome?
Aaron Rodgers is the more polished quarterback, he makes every throw with accuracy & something on it. He can scramble away from the rush & throw completions on the run. Roethlisberger can extend plays better than any QB in the league, he gets hit a lot but he's a load to bring down, he's extremely strong. He gets out of the pocket & with his excellent field vision he spots & throws to receivers that keep moving the chains.
The Steelers should be able to run the ball more productively with Reshard Mendenhall. Green Bay rookie James Starks can contribute but I will be shocked if he gains more than 45-50 yards total on the ground. I expect Rodgers to have a much better average per carry than Starks.
The receiver comparison is a difficult one. Pittsburgh tight end Heath Miller is Roethlisberger's favorite safety valve, he has 11 catches in two playoff games. WR Mike Wallace might be the most dangerous player for Pittsburgh, he's certainly one of the three fastest guys in the entire league. He's shown a knack to get behind his opposition. His fellow wideouts, Hines Ward(MVP of SB XL), Emmanuel Sanders & Antonio Brown all have contributed mightily in Pittsburgh's stretch run. The Packers have an array of wide receivers who can get open, catch the ball & move the chains. Veteran Donald Driver continues to make plays in his 13th season. Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson & James Jones are each dangerous with Rodgers pulling the trigger. John Kuhn is a favorite 3rd down receiver out of the backfield. This is a push IMO.
Offensive lines were just about even until Pittsburgh center Markice Pouncey injured his left ankle in the AFC Championship game. He will not play tomorrow & this could be huge. His replacement, Doug Legursky, is starting his very first game at center tomorrow(he's started 6 at guard). The edge matchups, Mathews vs. Flozell Adams, James Harrison vs. Chad Clifton & Lamar Woodley vs. rookie Bryan Bulaga will all be worth watching. I think the Packers have a slight edge in O-lines.
The outcome? This is tough for me, I picked the Packers in the preseason as my NFC Super Bowl team. Besides Kansas City, these are my two favorite franchises in the entire league for reasons I've outlined before. I like the Steelers ever so slightly. They have the experience, they'll start 13 players tomorrow with two Super Bowl rings, that's huge. The Packers have no starters with a ring. I like Mike Tomlin as well as any coach in the league. Mike McCarthy has shown a few scatterbrain moves to me over the years, he's a smart game planner, but I prefer Tomlin if I'm given a choice. I expect an exciting game with several big plays. I can't see a way, short of a QB injury, where this won't be a close, competitive game. So here goes: Pittsburgh 24 Green Bay 23
Enjoy your evening tomorrow night with friends, family, good food & a great game!
Had a delicious grilled turkey & swiss on rye w/horseradish, got a cold diet coke & some great blues playin', I'm ready, let's talk Super Bowl.
Super Bowl XLV for the Vince Lombardi Trophy
Kickoff: 5:29 CT broadcast on FOX
Current line & total: Green Bay -2 1/2 & 45
What we know:
In the past 50-years, since 1960, the Steelers & Packers have won 12 NFL titles, that's almost 25%. These are two of most storied franchises in league history. Neither has changed ownership in over 75-years. Their fans are legendary, they travel better than any other fans in pro football. Every major city in this country has both a Steeler & a Packer bar in it. I know there were 4 or 5 of each for the 20-years we lived in Las Vegas. I've been told there's 10 Steeler bars in Tampa & there are 8 Packer bars in L.A.
Every winner in the postseason this year has had the most rushing attempts in each game.
As a starting quarterback in the post season, Ben Roethlisberger has a 10-2 record including two Super Bowl Championships. He doesn't dazzle anyone with his stats, he just wins. This season he has thrown 2 interceptions, zero touchdowns but has won both games. His play late in both games were instrumental in Pittsburgh's victories. The 3rd & 19 completion for 58-yards against Baltimore set up the winning touchdown. The pass was perfectly thrown to Antonio Brown, who had inexplicably gotten behind the Raven secondary. Two weeks ago he rolled out of the pocket, avoiding the rush & completed twin 3rd & 6 passes allowing the Steelers to run out the clock vs. the Jets.
The Packers have 16 takeaways in their last 5 games. Those games were against the Giants, Bears, at Philadelphia, at Atlanta & at Chicago. That's quite a stat, it might be the most impressive stat of all tied to this game.
The winners of the previous 44 Super Bowls are a combined +90 in the turnover ratio.
The Packers haven't trailed by more than 7 points at anytime all season.
Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers played the single best game I ever saw an NFL quarterback play in the playoffs in their 48-21 beatdown of #1 NFC seed Atlanta.
This is why coaches, players, announcers, pundits, me & everybody else who has watched much football say "it all comes down to running the football" or "it all comes down to turnovers." It's hard to ignore the facts I listed above, they just reinforce what football people have been saying for decades.
Pittsburgh is 3rd in the league with a +17 turnover ratio & Green Bay is 4th at +10. The Steelers forced 28 fumbles, the Pack just 16. Green Bay intercepted 24 passes with Pittsburgh right behind them at 21.
Pittsburgh led the league in QB sacks with 48, Green Bay was 2nd with 47. The Steelers have added 7 in their 2 postseason games & Green Bay has 10 in their three post season games.
Pittsburgh was #1 league-wide versus the run by a wide margin, they surrendered just 62-yards per game while Green Bay averaged 114 rushing yards against them this season.
Pittsburgh led the league in points allowed, just 232 in the regular season, that's 14.5 per game. Green Bay finished 2nd, allowing 240, an average of 15.0.
Each team has several dynamic defenders with game-changing ability. Troy Polamalu is the best safety in football, but he's been slowed by an Achilles strain. Outside linebackers James Harrison & Lamar Woodley will knock your block off & sack your quarterback. Nose tackle Casey Hampton clogs the middle occupying blockers. For the Packers, linebacker Clay Matthews is a nightmare of a pass rusher, his first step is amazing. Cornerback Charles Woodsen is like his namesake, Rod Woodsen, I think he's gotten better with age. He can still shut down your best receiver, but he's added rushing the passer in zone blitz situations & he's a terror off the edge. Fellow corner Tramon Williams has become a ballhawk & shutdown corner.
These defenses are coached by the two best defensive coordinators in the game IMO, Hall of Famer Dick Lebeau for Pittsburgh & Dom Capers for the Pack. Both are pioneers of the 3-4 defense & the zone blitz. Both have an uncanny feel for what defense to call in almost every down & distance.
So it's obvious both of these Super Bowl defenses got to this game because they truly are the two best in the National Football League. But......I'm going to be very surprised if both offenses don't score over 20-points apiece. Why you ask? In the last 30 Super Bowls, only once(2008, NYG vs NE) has the winner scored less than 20-points. Over that same period, only five of the games went under a total of 40-points, only five. So regardless of how great these defenses have performed this season, I think we're looking at a minimum of 40-points being scored. Remember, these defensive stats were amassed playing outdoors in crappy weather sometimes, tomorrow will be indoors on a very fast track. Field goal kicking shouldn't be an issue in this dome like it is in Lambeau or Heinz Field, two graveyards for visiting placekickers.
So how do I take a side, predict an outcome?
Aaron Rodgers is the more polished quarterback, he makes every throw with accuracy & something on it. He can scramble away from the rush & throw completions on the run. Roethlisberger can extend plays better than any QB in the league, he gets hit a lot but he's a load to bring down, he's extremely strong. He gets out of the pocket & with his excellent field vision he spots & throws to receivers that keep moving the chains.
The Steelers should be able to run the ball more productively with Reshard Mendenhall. Green Bay rookie James Starks can contribute but I will be shocked if he gains more than 45-50 yards total on the ground. I expect Rodgers to have a much better average per carry than Starks.
The receiver comparison is a difficult one. Pittsburgh tight end Heath Miller is Roethlisberger's favorite safety valve, he has 11 catches in two playoff games. WR Mike Wallace might be the most dangerous player for Pittsburgh, he's certainly one of the three fastest guys in the entire league. He's shown a knack to get behind his opposition. His fellow wideouts, Hines Ward(MVP of SB XL), Emmanuel Sanders & Antonio Brown all have contributed mightily in Pittsburgh's stretch run. The Packers have an array of wide receivers who can get open, catch the ball & move the chains. Veteran Donald Driver continues to make plays in his 13th season. Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson & James Jones are each dangerous with Rodgers pulling the trigger. John Kuhn is a favorite 3rd down receiver out of the backfield. This is a push IMO.
Offensive lines were just about even until Pittsburgh center Markice Pouncey injured his left ankle in the AFC Championship game. He will not play tomorrow & this could be huge. His replacement, Doug Legursky, is starting his very first game at center tomorrow(he's started 6 at guard). The edge matchups, Mathews vs. Flozell Adams, James Harrison vs. Chad Clifton & Lamar Woodley vs. rookie Bryan Bulaga will all be worth watching. I think the Packers have a slight edge in O-lines.
The outcome? This is tough for me, I picked the Packers in the preseason as my NFC Super Bowl team. Besides Kansas City, these are my two favorite franchises in the entire league for reasons I've outlined before. I like the Steelers ever so slightly. They have the experience, they'll start 13 players tomorrow with two Super Bowl rings, that's huge. The Packers have no starters with a ring. I like Mike Tomlin as well as any coach in the league. Mike McCarthy has shown a few scatterbrain moves to me over the years, he's a smart game planner, but I prefer Tomlin if I'm given a choice. I expect an exciting game with several big plays. I can't see a way, short of a QB injury, where this won't be a close, competitive game. So here goes: Pittsburgh 24 Green Bay 23
Enjoy your evening tomorrow night with friends, family, good food & a great game!
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