ONE DAY LEFT AT INDY NFL SCOUTING COMBINE & THAT MAKES ME SAD
Now that we're closing in on a possible NFL lockout, tomorrow's final day of the NFL Scouting Combine in Indy's Lucas Oil Stadium might be the last professional football we see in a while. With all the "what-if" scenarios being floated about the current labor negotiations between ownership & the NFLPA, it's hard to remain positive about a reasonable settlement in a reasonable time frame.
Will the union vote to decertify thereby allowing individual players to sue the league in order to block a lockout? I think this is possible, maybe a 40% chance.
Will an extension be agreed upon so the league is not shut down & talks can continue? I believe this is very unlikely, the players have too much to lose, so less than a 20% chance of this happening is my prediction.
Can an agreement be reached before the Thursday midnight deadline? Highly unlikely, maybe as low as 3% probability.
Who's going to give in to a compromise first? The 3 major sticking points are revenue split percentages, the 18-game schedule & a rookie wage scale. I think the owners are wrong on the first two & the players on the third. But where this thing is going to break wide open in my opinion is the large number(maybe as high as 25%) of NFL players who literally live paycheck to paycheck(like so many Americans) even tho they make huge salaries. They can't afford to go without a paycheck & more importantly in this negotiation, they don't want to go without a paycheck, regardless of who else is effected. In the end it comes down to maybe a quarter of the league's players who care only about themselves & that is a fact. Say what you want about greedy owners, there are a number of payers just as greedy & just as selfish. You would be shocked to know there are many players in the league who really don't care about winning a Super Bowl ring, as long as the check keep coming in, that's what's really important. I'm 100% serious people, there are many parties on both sides who winning is second to cash. This is an unspoken problem in the NFL, but it's a fact & it will ultimately decide these negotiations.
Now for news from the NFL Scouting Combine, only one all-time record from the "Underwear Olympics" fell, but there were some impressive performances over the past three days. Oregon State nose tackle Stephen Paea did 49 reps in the bench press yesterday, eclipsing the mark of 45 held by former Arkansas guard Nick Petrus. None of the top-10 all-time managed more than pedestrian careers in the NFL, former Chief Tank Tyler put up 44 reps in 2006, but Paea is different. He was named the PAC-10 defensive lineman of the year in 2009 & 2010. In other words, his strength projects to his on-field performance. I love this guy & if you'll recall, I mentioned him as a possible 1st round pick for the Chiefs before the Senior Bowl. He injured his right knee, requiring meniscus surgery & missed Senior Bowl week & the game. He's not doing any other activities at the combine other than propelling 225-pounds up & down without stopping 49 times. It registered with scouts & coaches believe me. Other prospects who had good workouts since Saturday include:
Julio Jones/WR/Alabama
He was already considered by everyone to be a 1st round pick, just how far up the ladder would he be able to climb this weekend? I think he blew right by the St. Louis Rams' selection at #14 & they want him badly. He ran faster(4.39), jumped higher(38 1/2" in the vertical jump) & ran his drills flawlessly. At 6' 3" & 220, he is a formidable weapon for any offense, especially one like the Rams who are so desperate to add a receiving threat.
Von Miller/OLB/Texas A&M
Already thought of as a top-10 pick, Miller wowed everybody with everything he did after getting off the plane in Indianapolis. He was 9-pounds heavier than at the Senior Bowl, weighing in at 246. His 4.53 40-yard dash time was even faster than predicted but it was his athleticism in the linebacker drills that rocked me. His ablility to flip his hips & get to full speed in two steps was amazing, so sudden & so quick. He has that Derrick Thomas-like first step off the edge. This kid will be a great, great player.
Martez Wilson/ILB/Illinois
Came in bigger, 251-pounds, faster(4.49) & more agile than was expected. Like Miller, Jones & Paea, his measurables translate to his on-field performance. Seldom do inside linebackers find themselves selected in the first round since the spread of the 3-4 defense, but Wilson gave scouts & coaches something to think about with his workout, a tackling machine that can run. The only thing that I observed in a negative vein was some stiffness in his hips on one of the bag drills.
Randall Cobb/WR-KR/Kentucky
Cobb was an awesome offensive weapon his senior season. I considered him to be a high 2nd round talent but I may have to elevate his draft status. Everything he did was positive from running a very quick 4.45 in the forty-yard dash to his precise route running. Running the gauntlet, Cobb caught everything thrown to him & he never seemed to gear down when going into or out of his breaks in other drills.
Dontay Moch/OLB/Nevada
The word around Indy before this morning's defensive line linebacker workouts was "watch this Moch kid." For good reason, he rocked the combine with a 4.44 40-time & a ridiculous 42" vertical jump. The 6' 1 1/2" 248-pound Moch made himself a helluva lot of money today. He won't be a first round selection but he definitely moved into "Day 2' status, guaranteeing he'll be picked in round 2 or 3.
Ryan Mallett/QB/Arkansas
He had about as perfect a throwing workout as I've ever seen. His ability to slide around in the pocket still concerns me but the kid has an arm that is truly elite. He knows when to throw hard, loft it with touch & his release is a thing of beauty. He isn't gifted athletically, there is a rumor going around Indy he has a pot problem but his team interviews where he was called upon to diagram plays, reads & patterns, he was a big hit. If the pot question goes away, I think Mallett did enough to get back into the 1st round.
Jake Locker/QB/Washington
His accuracy simply wasn't there last season or during Senior Bowl week, but Locker redeemed himself, at least temporarily, with his workout yesterday. He threw accurately & on time for most of the session. His athletic prowess was never in question, finishing in the top-5 of the 40, vertical & broad jump, 3-cone drill & the short shuttle, all at 231-pounds. He's still my 5th rated QB, but he's rounding back into the form that had the #1 ranked player before last season.
Christian Ponder/QB/Florida State
At the last minute, Ponder changed his mind & decided to throw yesterday, great decision. He had a great session throwing the ball. Maybe following Cam Newton made Ponder look even better. He was on time, accurate & threw a beautiful spiral. Ponder has had numerous arm & shoulder issues, but you'd never know it by his performance yesterday.
Roy Helu Jr./RB/Nebraska
His agility & balance were on display as Helu finished at the top in the 3-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle & the 60-yard shuttle. He also ran a 4.42 forty. For a guy who was thought to be a Day 3 prospect(rounds 4-7), he improved his draft status, can he hang onto the ball at the next level? That's really what concerns NFL coaches.
Cameron Jordan/DE/Cal
Jordan continued the positive buzz he created at the Senior Bowl. It began at the weigh-in, his 35" arms & 11" hands helped to explain why his hand fighting is superior to almost everyone in this draft. The son of former Viking tight end Steve Jordan, Cameron ran a very impressive 4.71 forty at 287-pounds. His agility drills didn't disappoint either.
Brooks Reed/DE-OLB/Arizona
Ran a super-quick 4.68 forty & his agility drills showed Reed can make the transition to OLB in a 3-4 defense. I have Reed going sometime in the first 10 picks of round two.
Those who saw their stock fall:
Cam Newton/QB/Auburn
His measurables were excellent in the individual tests but in the passing drills, he had a terrible day. His footwork was inconsistent & he completed only 11 of 21 throws. When you can't complete at least 75% in drills like this, a bunch of red flags should go up regarding his ability. No pass rush, no defensive backs covering your receiver, no reads, just throw the ball to a spot. He couldn't do it. Is Newton in danger of falling out of the 1st round? No, but he needs a much better showing at Auburn's pro day March 7th if he is to stay in the top-10 picks.
Torrey Smith/WR-KR/Maryland/
A very high-character individual with an awesome personal story, I'm rooting for Smith, I won't hide it. He's fast, but his 4.43 was disappointing. What really bothered me about his workout was his inability to get into & out of his breaks quickly, plus he was very inconsistent catching the ball. Rounding off his patterns & then dropping very catchable passes wasn't good.
John Clay/RB/Wisconsin
Clay shed almost 25 pounds since the Rose Bowl but honestly it didn't show. He looked slow, played slow & ran a slow 4.81 forty. I think scouts will start putting a FB in front of his name instead of RB because he moves more like a fullback than a running back.
Justin Houston/DE-OLB/Georgia
His was more of a good-news-bad-news kind of day today. He weighed in at 270-pounds on his 6' 3" frame & he has big(10 3/8") hands, but his transition from down defensive end to stand-up outside linebacker will take some time. He ran a very impressive 4.64 forty & completed 30 reps in the bench press, but looked very un-athletic in many of the linebacker drills. He fell down a number of times attempting to flip his hips & run. Of course this is not a motion defensive ends do a lot so he does have an excuse. Still, the number of times his feet went out from under him was disconcerting.
Nick Fairly/DT/Auburn
I have issues with this kid before today, but I have to say he did nothing to erase those concerns. He came in too light, he was listed all season as 6' 5" & 304 but measured exactly 6' 4" & weighed just 291. He did run a fine 4.87 forty, but didn't distinguish himself in any other test. His team interviews were unimpressive as he constantly defended questions about possible dirty play with "a lot of people like the way I play the game." His work at the chalkboard was underwhelming as well to some teams. One scout said "a lot of teams had him in the top-3, not after this weekend, no way."
I'll have a lot more tonight from the combine.
Will the union vote to decertify thereby allowing individual players to sue the league in order to block a lockout? I think this is possible, maybe a 40% chance.
Will an extension be agreed upon so the league is not shut down & talks can continue? I believe this is very unlikely, the players have too much to lose, so less than a 20% chance of this happening is my prediction.
Can an agreement be reached before the Thursday midnight deadline? Highly unlikely, maybe as low as 3% probability.
Who's going to give in to a compromise first? The 3 major sticking points are revenue split percentages, the 18-game schedule & a rookie wage scale. I think the owners are wrong on the first two & the players on the third. But where this thing is going to break wide open in my opinion is the large number(maybe as high as 25%) of NFL players who literally live paycheck to paycheck(like so many Americans) even tho they make huge salaries. They can't afford to go without a paycheck & more importantly in this negotiation, they don't want to go without a paycheck, regardless of who else is effected. In the end it comes down to maybe a quarter of the league's players who care only about themselves & that is a fact. Say what you want about greedy owners, there are a number of payers just as greedy & just as selfish. You would be shocked to know there are many players in the league who really don't care about winning a Super Bowl ring, as long as the check keep coming in, that's what's really important. I'm 100% serious people, there are many parties on both sides who winning is second to cash. This is an unspoken problem in the NFL, but it's a fact & it will ultimately decide these negotiations.
Now for news from the NFL Scouting Combine, only one all-time record from the "Underwear Olympics" fell, but there were some impressive performances over the past three days. Oregon State nose tackle Stephen Paea did 49 reps in the bench press yesterday, eclipsing the mark of 45 held by former Arkansas guard Nick Petrus. None of the top-10 all-time managed more than pedestrian careers in the NFL, former Chief Tank Tyler put up 44 reps in 2006, but Paea is different. He was named the PAC-10 defensive lineman of the year in 2009 & 2010. In other words, his strength projects to his on-field performance. I love this guy & if you'll recall, I mentioned him as a possible 1st round pick for the Chiefs before the Senior Bowl. He injured his right knee, requiring meniscus surgery & missed Senior Bowl week & the game. He's not doing any other activities at the combine other than propelling 225-pounds up & down without stopping 49 times. It registered with scouts & coaches believe me. Other prospects who had good workouts since Saturday include:
Julio Jones/WR/Alabama
He was already considered by everyone to be a 1st round pick, just how far up the ladder would he be able to climb this weekend? I think he blew right by the St. Louis Rams' selection at #14 & they want him badly. He ran faster(4.39), jumped higher(38 1/2" in the vertical jump) & ran his drills flawlessly. At 6' 3" & 220, he is a formidable weapon for any offense, especially one like the Rams who are so desperate to add a receiving threat.
Von Miller/OLB/Texas A&M
Already thought of as a top-10 pick, Miller wowed everybody with everything he did after getting off the plane in Indianapolis. He was 9-pounds heavier than at the Senior Bowl, weighing in at 246. His 4.53 40-yard dash time was even faster than predicted but it was his athleticism in the linebacker drills that rocked me. His ablility to flip his hips & get to full speed in two steps was amazing, so sudden & so quick. He has that Derrick Thomas-like first step off the edge. This kid will be a great, great player.
Martez Wilson/ILB/Illinois
Came in bigger, 251-pounds, faster(4.49) & more agile than was expected. Like Miller, Jones & Paea, his measurables translate to his on-field performance. Seldom do inside linebackers find themselves selected in the first round since the spread of the 3-4 defense, but Wilson gave scouts & coaches something to think about with his workout, a tackling machine that can run. The only thing that I observed in a negative vein was some stiffness in his hips on one of the bag drills.
Randall Cobb/WR-KR/Kentucky
Cobb was an awesome offensive weapon his senior season. I considered him to be a high 2nd round talent but I may have to elevate his draft status. Everything he did was positive from running a very quick 4.45 in the forty-yard dash to his precise route running. Running the gauntlet, Cobb caught everything thrown to him & he never seemed to gear down when going into or out of his breaks in other drills.
Dontay Moch/OLB/Nevada
The word around Indy before this morning's defensive line linebacker workouts was "watch this Moch kid." For good reason, he rocked the combine with a 4.44 40-time & a ridiculous 42" vertical jump. The 6' 1 1/2" 248-pound Moch made himself a helluva lot of money today. He won't be a first round selection but he definitely moved into "Day 2' status, guaranteeing he'll be picked in round 2 or 3.
Ryan Mallett/QB/Arkansas
He had about as perfect a throwing workout as I've ever seen. His ability to slide around in the pocket still concerns me but the kid has an arm that is truly elite. He knows when to throw hard, loft it with touch & his release is a thing of beauty. He isn't gifted athletically, there is a rumor going around Indy he has a pot problem but his team interviews where he was called upon to diagram plays, reads & patterns, he was a big hit. If the pot question goes away, I think Mallett did enough to get back into the 1st round.
Jake Locker/QB/Washington
His accuracy simply wasn't there last season or during Senior Bowl week, but Locker redeemed himself, at least temporarily, with his workout yesterday. He threw accurately & on time for most of the session. His athletic prowess was never in question, finishing in the top-5 of the 40, vertical & broad jump, 3-cone drill & the short shuttle, all at 231-pounds. He's still my 5th rated QB, but he's rounding back into the form that had the #1 ranked player before last season.
Christian Ponder/QB/Florida State
At the last minute, Ponder changed his mind & decided to throw yesterday, great decision. He had a great session throwing the ball. Maybe following Cam Newton made Ponder look even better. He was on time, accurate & threw a beautiful spiral. Ponder has had numerous arm & shoulder issues, but you'd never know it by his performance yesterday.
Roy Helu Jr./RB/Nebraska
His agility & balance were on display as Helu finished at the top in the 3-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle & the 60-yard shuttle. He also ran a 4.42 forty. For a guy who was thought to be a Day 3 prospect(rounds 4-7), he improved his draft status, can he hang onto the ball at the next level? That's really what concerns NFL coaches.
Cameron Jordan/DE/Cal
Jordan continued the positive buzz he created at the Senior Bowl. It began at the weigh-in, his 35" arms & 11" hands helped to explain why his hand fighting is superior to almost everyone in this draft. The son of former Viking tight end Steve Jordan, Cameron ran a very impressive 4.71 forty at 287-pounds. His agility drills didn't disappoint either.
Brooks Reed/DE-OLB/Arizona
Ran a super-quick 4.68 forty & his agility drills showed Reed can make the transition to OLB in a 3-4 defense. I have Reed going sometime in the first 10 picks of round two.
Those who saw their stock fall:
Cam Newton/QB/Auburn
His measurables were excellent in the individual tests but in the passing drills, he had a terrible day. His footwork was inconsistent & he completed only 11 of 21 throws. When you can't complete at least 75% in drills like this, a bunch of red flags should go up regarding his ability. No pass rush, no defensive backs covering your receiver, no reads, just throw the ball to a spot. He couldn't do it. Is Newton in danger of falling out of the 1st round? No, but he needs a much better showing at Auburn's pro day March 7th if he is to stay in the top-10 picks.
Torrey Smith/WR-KR/Maryland/
A very high-character individual with an awesome personal story, I'm rooting for Smith, I won't hide it. He's fast, but his 4.43 was disappointing. What really bothered me about his workout was his inability to get into & out of his breaks quickly, plus he was very inconsistent catching the ball. Rounding off his patterns & then dropping very catchable passes wasn't good.
John Clay/RB/Wisconsin
Clay shed almost 25 pounds since the Rose Bowl but honestly it didn't show. He looked slow, played slow & ran a slow 4.81 forty. I think scouts will start putting a FB in front of his name instead of RB because he moves more like a fullback than a running back.
Justin Houston/DE-OLB/Georgia
His was more of a good-news-bad-news kind of day today. He weighed in at 270-pounds on his 6' 3" frame & he has big(10 3/8") hands, but his transition from down defensive end to stand-up outside linebacker will take some time. He ran a very impressive 4.64 forty & completed 30 reps in the bench press, but looked very un-athletic in many of the linebacker drills. He fell down a number of times attempting to flip his hips & run. Of course this is not a motion defensive ends do a lot so he does have an excuse. Still, the number of times his feet went out from under him was disconcerting.
Nick Fairly/DT/Auburn
I have issues with this kid before today, but I have to say he did nothing to erase those concerns. He came in too light, he was listed all season as 6' 5" & 304 but measured exactly 6' 4" & weighed just 291. He did run a fine 4.87 forty, but didn't distinguish himself in any other test. His team interviews were unimpressive as he constantly defended questions about possible dirty play with "a lot of people like the way I play the game." His work at the chalkboard was underwhelming as well to some teams. One scout said "a lot of teams had him in the top-3, not after this weekend, no way."
I'll have a lot more tonight from the combine.
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