JUST 37 DAYS TILL THE DRAFT, WHAT DO THE CHIEFS NEED?
Yes it's 37-days away, it's about the only positive NFL-related thing we have to look forward to at this point. I'm going to give my thoughts on what the Chiefs need in this draft. I might revise the list somewhat before the draft, but I'm pretty stubborn about what I see as the Chiefs' needs. If Scott Pioli can duplicate the impact of last season's draft, the Chiefs could be on their way to winning 8-9 games this season. Remember, their schedule is way tougher than last season, so they'll have to play a lot better than last year just to win 8-9 games. Right now, I don't see them repeating as Western Division champs. The 2010 season was sort of a "smoke & mirrors" deal, with 2011's tougher slate, they won't sneak up on anyone.
Here are their top-10 holes to fill:
OT-They passed on some good tackles the last two seasons & I doubt they'll do that again next month. I've said it since they drafted the guy, Barry Richardson is not an NFL starting tackle. He's a workable backup swing tackle(can play either side) but not a starter. Brandon Albert hasn't developed into a high quality starter on the left side, he could be moved over to right tackle. There are four tackles that carry a 1st round grade in my rankings, all four should be able to play either side, but only two will be around when the Chiefs go at #21.
OLB-They desperately need another pass rusher opposite Tamba Hali. Mike Vrabel is at the end of his career & Andy Studebaker hasn't shown the pass rush ability the Chiefs need. Last season's last draft pick, OLB Cameron Sheffield, was injured during a preseason game & was placed on I.R. for the season.
WR-Kansas City has Dwayne Bowe & that's pretty much it. They kept Jeremy Horne on the practice squad & beyond him, they really don't have anyone who can line up & catch 40 passes outside. I thought Dexter McCluster was disappointing last season, he didn't get open. They need a new starter, one that can take the heat off Bowe's side of the field. Size & speed don't concern me as much as separation & good hands. Get open, catch the ball, move the chains, it's a pretty simple theory, but sometime hard to put into practice. The draft depth at this position is pretty solid, they should be able to get a very solid prospect from round 1 to 4, maybe even in the 5th.
NT-A nose tackle that can swallow up blockers is a must in the 3-4 defense & the Chiefs don't have a guy on the nose who can do that. Ron Edwards is barely adequate & there's no one behind him. This is a position that has few real candidates, maybe 6 at most, so getting one will be a challenge, but one they have to face.
C-Even if Casey Wiegmann returns for his 16th season, the Chiefs need a young center. I bitched about Rudy Niswanger for years, I certainly don't want to see him back as a starter, so a rookie center is a must.
RB-Anyone think Thomas Jones will be better in 2011? He began running out of gas about mid-season last year & he'll be 33 before this season begins. He's due to make $3 million in roster bonus & base salary, I doubt he'll be back. Jackie Battle isn't the answer, so another running back will have to be drafted.
QB-I think Brody Croyle's days as a Chief are numbered & Tyler Palko isn't even an acceptable backup, so another quarterback is on my shopping list.
TE-Tony Moeaki came on as a rookie but he has an extensive injury history. Leonard Pope & Jake O'Connell are behind Moeaki. Another tight end would be nice.
G-Brian Waters made the Pro Bowl again, but I think it was more on reputation than performance. He's nearing the end of a very good career. Jon Asamoah was drafted last year & he appears to be the real deal whenever he's called upon to take over at left guard. Ryan Lilja had a very good campaign last year, he might well have been the Chiefs' best lineman in 2010. But he's entering his 8th season, he's undersized & has had trouble staying healthy. Picking a guard would be a luxury with all the other more pressing needs.
ILB-Derrick Johnson blossomed into the impact player we hoped for when he was a 1st round pick in 2005. He needs a running mate who can also make an impact. Jovan Belcher, last year's starter, Corey Mays & Demorrio Williams aren't the answer, decent special teams players, but not NFL starting inside linebackers.
Now just for fun, let's do the first of what will probably be many, mock drafts for Kansas City. The Chiefs have all their picks except a 6th rounder, traded last year. They also have Detroit's 5th round selection, obtained in the tampering complaint won by Kansas City.
Round One-Pick #21
OT-Gabe Carimi-Wisconsin-6' 7" 315-4YR starter-a road grader run blocker-tough-mean-already a dependable pass blocker.
OT-Nate Solder-Colorado-6' 8" 309-converted TE-superior athlete-footwork is unreal-needs upper body strength, better use of his hands & patient coaching-huge upside
NT-Phil Taylor-Baylor-6'3" 337-Penn State transfer, massive, but not fat-country strong-demands double team on every snap-can bull rush the center right back into the QB.
OLB-Brooks Reed-Arizona-6' 3" 263-ultra quick first step-can easily turn the corner & close on the QB-highly motivated player who is a coaches dream.
C/G-Mike Pouncey-Florida-6' 5" 312-Twin brother of Pittsburgh Pro Bowl rookie center Markice Pouncey. Smart, disciplined coachable prospect-tough as nails-wants to be drafted higher than his brother & have a better career-ultra competitive.
Round Two-Pick #55
OLB-Bruce Carter-North Carolina-6' 2" 246-ACL surgery in December. Had elite speed before the injury-has multiple pass rush moves-sure tackler-but injury is big ? mark.
C/G-Rodney Hudson-Florida State-6' 2" 293-Superior finesse player at either position-a real tactician-not overly physical but gets the job done nearly every snap-very smart.
WR-Jerrel Jernigan-Troy-5' 9" 188-blazing speed-can get behind the defense-very creative in the open field-good hands & an excellent kickoff return man.
WR-Randall Cobb-Kentucky-5' 11" 192-Jack of all trades & a threat at any of them-TD's 6 different ways-ultra dangerous in the open field-excellent hands.
NT-Stephen Paea-Oregon State-6' 1" 303-Super quick off the ball-stays low & is very tough to block-nonstop motor-49 bench press reps at combine-torn meniscus moves him down to round two. Just started playing football as a H.S. senior.
Round Three-Pick #86
WR-Titus Young-Boise State-5' 11" 174-blazing speed to get behind the defense-excellent hands-kickoff return man who's dangerous after the catch-will need tough coaching.
WR-Tandon Doss-Indiana-6' 2" 203-Fast enough to consistently get separation-excellent hands-character guy-tough & durable.
OT-Marcus Gilbert-Florida-6' 6" 323-excellent right tackle prospect-moves very well for his size-can hit a moving target at 2nd level-long, very strong arms.
QB-Ricky Stanzi-Iowa-6' 4" 223-Accurate arm, but not powerful for the deep throw-excellent leader in the huddle-good pre-snap reads-3-yr starter in quality program.
Round Four-Pick #117
NT-Ian Williams-Notre Dame-6' 1" 319-quick off the ball-stays low-plays with very good leverage & shows explosive power at times-not a factor outside the phone booth-3yr starter. Plays hard to the whistle every snap.
WR-Cecil Shorts III-Mount Union-5' 11" 206-2 time team captain-the best Div. III player the past two seasons-dominated every week-scored 62 TD's-great hands & ball skills. Never heard of Mount Union? Colts Pierre Garcon went there & they've won 9 national championships in past 15 years.
WR-Austin Pettis-Boise State-6' 2" 209-some of the best hands in college football-not fast but gains separation with excellent route running-superior ball skills & body control makes him an ultra dangerous redzone receiver.
ILB-Casey Mathews-Oregon-6'0" 234-Very instinctive-superior tackler-younger bro of Packers' Clay-covers the middle of the field well in pass coverage-packs a wallop.
Round Five-Picks #132 & #137
RB-Stevan Ridley-LSU-6'0" 227-Power back good between the tackles & in short yardage-breaks arm tackles-very secure with the ball-didn't play on third down-low mileage, only 306 carries for Tigers.
C/G-Tim Barnes-Missouri-6'4" 299-excellent pass blocker-extremely smart & very tough.
QB-Nathan Enderle-Idaho-6'4" 244-Comes from a pro-style offense-better in '09 than '10-can make all the throws but needs a good o-line to produce-big rush rattles him.
RB-Vai Taua-Nevada-5'10" 220-Quick into the hole-finishes every run with good lean & decent power-not a polished receiver but very good in blitz pickup.
G-David Arkin-Missouri State-6'4" 314-Tackle has to move inside-strong-tough-mauler in the phone booth-quick guys can give him trouble-coachable-decent upside.
OLB-Cheta Ozougwu-Rice-6'1" 247-college DE-can turn the corner & close on QB-very smart-nonstop motor-just learning the game-could have a big upside if drafted by a patient team.
Round Seven-pick # undetermined until compensatory picks are announced
WR-Stephen Burton-West Texas A&M-6'1" 220-excellent size which he uses to shield defenders off the ball-athletic-good ball skills-nice upside, could go as high as round 5.
ILB-Nick Bellore-Central Michigan-6'1" 247-very tough to block inside-excellent tackler in the hole-not great chasing outside-very experienced-smart & tough.
NT-Blaine Sumner-Colorado School of Mines-6' 1" 332-Really you say? Yep, he set the all-time bench press record at 52 reps-explosive power-decent quickness-may never be a starter but could stick as backup.
C-Colin Miller-Central Michigan-6'2" 293-4yr starter-team captain-good tactician
NT-Sione Fua-Stanford-6'1" 309-Stalemates one-on-one blocking-must be double teamed-very strong but little technique.
That will give you something to think about for awhile, with no free agency because of the lockout, I'll have more scouting news between now & the draft.
Here are their top-10 holes to fill:
OT-They passed on some good tackles the last two seasons & I doubt they'll do that again next month. I've said it since they drafted the guy, Barry Richardson is not an NFL starting tackle. He's a workable backup swing tackle(can play either side) but not a starter. Brandon Albert hasn't developed into a high quality starter on the left side, he could be moved over to right tackle. There are four tackles that carry a 1st round grade in my rankings, all four should be able to play either side, but only two will be around when the Chiefs go at #21.
OLB-They desperately need another pass rusher opposite Tamba Hali. Mike Vrabel is at the end of his career & Andy Studebaker hasn't shown the pass rush ability the Chiefs need. Last season's last draft pick, OLB Cameron Sheffield, was injured during a preseason game & was placed on I.R. for the season.
WR-Kansas City has Dwayne Bowe & that's pretty much it. They kept Jeremy Horne on the practice squad & beyond him, they really don't have anyone who can line up & catch 40 passes outside. I thought Dexter McCluster was disappointing last season, he didn't get open. They need a new starter, one that can take the heat off Bowe's side of the field. Size & speed don't concern me as much as separation & good hands. Get open, catch the ball, move the chains, it's a pretty simple theory, but sometime hard to put into practice. The draft depth at this position is pretty solid, they should be able to get a very solid prospect from round 1 to 4, maybe even in the 5th.
NT-A nose tackle that can swallow up blockers is a must in the 3-4 defense & the Chiefs don't have a guy on the nose who can do that. Ron Edwards is barely adequate & there's no one behind him. This is a position that has few real candidates, maybe 6 at most, so getting one will be a challenge, but one they have to face.
C-Even if Casey Wiegmann returns for his 16th season, the Chiefs need a young center. I bitched about Rudy Niswanger for years, I certainly don't want to see him back as a starter, so a rookie center is a must.
RB-Anyone think Thomas Jones will be better in 2011? He began running out of gas about mid-season last year & he'll be 33 before this season begins. He's due to make $3 million in roster bonus & base salary, I doubt he'll be back. Jackie Battle isn't the answer, so another running back will have to be drafted.
QB-I think Brody Croyle's days as a Chief are numbered & Tyler Palko isn't even an acceptable backup, so another quarterback is on my shopping list.
TE-Tony Moeaki came on as a rookie but he has an extensive injury history. Leonard Pope & Jake O'Connell are behind Moeaki. Another tight end would be nice.
G-Brian Waters made the Pro Bowl again, but I think it was more on reputation than performance. He's nearing the end of a very good career. Jon Asamoah was drafted last year & he appears to be the real deal whenever he's called upon to take over at left guard. Ryan Lilja had a very good campaign last year, he might well have been the Chiefs' best lineman in 2010. But he's entering his 8th season, he's undersized & has had trouble staying healthy. Picking a guard would be a luxury with all the other more pressing needs.
ILB-Derrick Johnson blossomed into the impact player we hoped for when he was a 1st round pick in 2005. He needs a running mate who can also make an impact. Jovan Belcher, last year's starter, Corey Mays & Demorrio Williams aren't the answer, decent special teams players, but not NFL starting inside linebackers.
Now just for fun, let's do the first of what will probably be many, mock drafts for Kansas City. The Chiefs have all their picks except a 6th rounder, traded last year. They also have Detroit's 5th round selection, obtained in the tampering complaint won by Kansas City.
Round One-Pick #21
OT-Gabe Carimi-Wisconsin-6' 7" 315-4YR starter-a road grader run blocker-tough-mean-already a dependable pass blocker.
OT-Nate Solder-Colorado-6' 8" 309-converted TE-superior athlete-footwork is unreal-needs upper body strength, better use of his hands & patient coaching-huge upside
NT-Phil Taylor-Baylor-6'3" 337-Penn State transfer, massive, but not fat-country strong-demands double team on every snap-can bull rush the center right back into the QB.
OLB-Brooks Reed-Arizona-6' 3" 263-ultra quick first step-can easily turn the corner & close on the QB-highly motivated player who is a coaches dream.
C/G-Mike Pouncey-Florida-6' 5" 312-Twin brother of Pittsburgh Pro Bowl rookie center Markice Pouncey. Smart, disciplined coachable prospect-tough as nails-wants to be drafted higher than his brother & have a better career-ultra competitive.
Round Two-Pick #55
OLB-Bruce Carter-North Carolina-6' 2" 246-ACL surgery in December. Had elite speed before the injury-has multiple pass rush moves-sure tackler-but injury is big ? mark.
C/G-Rodney Hudson-Florida State-6' 2" 293-Superior finesse player at either position-a real tactician-not overly physical but gets the job done nearly every snap-very smart.
WR-Jerrel Jernigan-Troy-5' 9" 188-blazing speed-can get behind the defense-very creative in the open field-good hands & an excellent kickoff return man.
WR-Randall Cobb-Kentucky-5' 11" 192-Jack of all trades & a threat at any of them-TD's 6 different ways-ultra dangerous in the open field-excellent hands.
NT-Stephen Paea-Oregon State-6' 1" 303-Super quick off the ball-stays low & is very tough to block-nonstop motor-49 bench press reps at combine-torn meniscus moves him down to round two. Just started playing football as a H.S. senior.
Round Three-Pick #86
WR-Titus Young-Boise State-5' 11" 174-blazing speed to get behind the defense-excellent hands-kickoff return man who's dangerous after the catch-will need tough coaching.
WR-Tandon Doss-Indiana-6' 2" 203-Fast enough to consistently get separation-excellent hands-character guy-tough & durable.
OT-Marcus Gilbert-Florida-6' 6" 323-excellent right tackle prospect-moves very well for his size-can hit a moving target at 2nd level-long, very strong arms.
QB-Ricky Stanzi-Iowa-6' 4" 223-Accurate arm, but not powerful for the deep throw-excellent leader in the huddle-good pre-snap reads-3-yr starter in quality program.
Round Four-Pick #117
NT-Ian Williams-Notre Dame-6' 1" 319-quick off the ball-stays low-plays with very good leverage & shows explosive power at times-not a factor outside the phone booth-3yr starter. Plays hard to the whistle every snap.
WR-Cecil Shorts III-Mount Union-5' 11" 206-2 time team captain-the best Div. III player the past two seasons-dominated every week-scored 62 TD's-great hands & ball skills. Never heard of Mount Union? Colts Pierre Garcon went there & they've won 9 national championships in past 15 years.
WR-Austin Pettis-Boise State-6' 2" 209-some of the best hands in college football-not fast but gains separation with excellent route running-superior ball skills & body control makes him an ultra dangerous redzone receiver.
ILB-Casey Mathews-Oregon-6'0" 234-Very instinctive-superior tackler-younger bro of Packers' Clay-covers the middle of the field well in pass coverage-packs a wallop.
Round Five-Picks #132 & #137
RB-Stevan Ridley-LSU-6'0" 227-Power back good between the tackles & in short yardage-breaks arm tackles-very secure with the ball-didn't play on third down-low mileage, only 306 carries for Tigers.
C/G-Tim Barnes-Missouri-6'4" 299-excellent pass blocker-extremely smart & very tough.
QB-Nathan Enderle-Idaho-6'4" 244-Comes from a pro-style offense-better in '09 than '10-can make all the throws but needs a good o-line to produce-big rush rattles him.
RB-Vai Taua-Nevada-5'10" 220-Quick into the hole-finishes every run with good lean & decent power-not a polished receiver but very good in blitz pickup.
G-David Arkin-Missouri State-6'4" 314-Tackle has to move inside-strong-tough-mauler in the phone booth-quick guys can give him trouble-coachable-decent upside.
OLB-Cheta Ozougwu-Rice-6'1" 247-college DE-can turn the corner & close on QB-very smart-nonstop motor-just learning the game-could have a big upside if drafted by a patient team.
Round Seven-pick # undetermined until compensatory picks are announced
WR-Stephen Burton-West Texas A&M-6'1" 220-excellent size which he uses to shield defenders off the ball-athletic-good ball skills-nice upside, could go as high as round 5.
ILB-Nick Bellore-Central Michigan-6'1" 247-very tough to block inside-excellent tackler in the hole-not great chasing outside-very experienced-smart & tough.
NT-Blaine Sumner-Colorado School of Mines-6' 1" 332-Really you say? Yep, he set the all-time bench press record at 52 reps-explosive power-decent quickness-may never be a starter but could stick as backup.
C-Colin Miller-Central Michigan-6'2" 293-4yr starter-team captain-good tactician
NT-Sione Fua-Stanford-6'1" 309-Stalemates one-on-one blocking-must be double teamed-very strong but little technique.
That will give you something to think about for awhile, with no free agency because of the lockout, I'll have more scouting news between now & the draft.
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