SOMEBODY ASKED ME "JUST HOW GOOD IS THIS DRAFT?" WELL, I'LL TELL YA
One of my longtime readers sent me an email just about an hour ago asking one simple question, "just how good is this draft?" Great question, I had to think about it for a while, but I think I'm ready to answer.
This draft is pretty good at several positions, defensive end, wide receiver, cornerback, possibly even defensive tackle. But overall, I'd say it will be considered a down year for the draft. Sadly, if 55 juniors hadn't entered the fray, this could be one of the all-time snoozers. I don't think this is the end of down drafts, I think we're in a cycle right now, one that will perpetuate a number of down drafts. Let me explain why.
1. The possibility of a rookie wage scale scared more juniors into declaring this year, fearful of staying in school one more year & being a part of the wage scale experiment. The question isn't if we'll see a rookie wage scale, but when we'll see one. I'm thinking with all this labor strife, we'll see it before the next draft.
2. The spread offense has highlighted certain positions while almost downgrading others. When you spread the field out like so many schools do now, it becomes more of a 1-on-1 game, a video game if you will. Offensive lineman, using wide line splits & 2-point stances, have to be retaught their positions for the next level. Quarterbacks take almost every snap from the shotgun & they don't go thru progressions, QB's have 1 or 2 pre-snap reads that tell them where to throw the ball after it's snapped. Safeties are no longer ball hawks, they're basically bigger cornerbacks. With 4 & 5 receivers in a spread formation, defenses play more corners & fewer traditional-type safeties. Defenses seldom blitz spread quarterbacks as they get rid of the ball too quickly.
3. Because so many junior quarterbacks declare for the draft, they don't have the experience, the reps, the passing attempts, to know if they're really any good. Cam Newton will most likely be the first player selected in tomorrow night's draft. He threw a total of 293 passes in his one & only season as a Division I starting quarterback. It used to be a QB would have a minimum of 900 attempts before they came into the draft. Since the NFL is such a quarterback-driven league, teams without a so-called "franchise quarterback" want one, need one, they gotta have it right now. So kids rush from college only to be completely retrained in many of the position's fundamentals. Spread quarterbacks get a crash course in taking a snap from under center & the various 3, 5, & 7-step drops. Fundamentals they would have learned in a pro style offense & doing it for 3 or 4-years. They have to learn this before the Combine or the campus pro day so pro scouts can get some sort of a gauge on their ability. Andrew Luck stayed at Stanford for his senior year & plays in a pro style offense. Pro scouts love that, he's the Heisman front-runner as well as the favorite to be the 1st overall pick next April. Here's a fun fact, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez & Jimmy Clausen all came out as juniors in the past 3 drafts. Would this group been better prepared for the NFL if they'd stayed in school another year & run a pro-style offense as opposed to the spread? Undoubtedly, no question about it. Only Tim Tebow used all of his eligibility & his mechanics are so totally messed up from his days as a spread quarterback, he may never make it as an NFL starter.
4. The emphasis on the running game is lessened in the spread offense. I doubt we'll see a running back taken in the 1st round tomorrow evening. Backs don't come out of college with the gaudy stats they rolled up running out the "I Formation" or the "Wishbone". And just like quarterbacks, they come out early. Running backs know they have the shortest shelf life in pro football, why waste those carries in college, get paid for them as a pro. The "running game Lite" from the the spread, decreases the blocking tight ends learn in pro style offenses, blocking they'll need in the pros.
5. Inside linebackers first responsibility is their pass drops playing against a spread offense while in the pros, stuffing the run is the most important thing. This is why so few inside linebackers transition well to the NFL, it's also the reason their draft grades are so low.
As long as high school & college football programs continue running the spread & variations on this offense, we'll see fewer pro-ready players, especially at the positions I mentioned above. Who does the spread benefit? Perimeter players, wide receivers, cornerbacks, offensive tackles, defensive ends & pass rushing linebackers, the strength of this draft. I think this is the future of draftable talent.
This is the worst safety group I've seen in 10-years, at least. Teams desperate for one are in real trouble. The inside linebacker talent is so bad, I doubt one will be drafted until the third round. Centers are way down, Mike Pouncey will probably be a guard in the pros, maybe it was his 28 bad snaps in the shotgun formation. The only other top prospects, Rodney Hudson & Stefan Wisniewski, played as much guard in college as center. Hudson could continue playing guard next year. I mentioned the lack of a true franchise quarterback already.
This makes tomorrow's draft & I fear many future drafts, not so hot. Oh we'll catch one top-heavy with safeties or linebackers every now & again, but as a rule, those drafts are disappearing.
This draft is pretty good at several positions, defensive end, wide receiver, cornerback, possibly even defensive tackle. But overall, I'd say it will be considered a down year for the draft. Sadly, if 55 juniors hadn't entered the fray, this could be one of the all-time snoozers. I don't think this is the end of down drafts, I think we're in a cycle right now, one that will perpetuate a number of down drafts. Let me explain why.
1. The possibility of a rookie wage scale scared more juniors into declaring this year, fearful of staying in school one more year & being a part of the wage scale experiment. The question isn't if we'll see a rookie wage scale, but when we'll see one. I'm thinking with all this labor strife, we'll see it before the next draft.
2. The spread offense has highlighted certain positions while almost downgrading others. When you spread the field out like so many schools do now, it becomes more of a 1-on-1 game, a video game if you will. Offensive lineman, using wide line splits & 2-point stances, have to be retaught their positions for the next level. Quarterbacks take almost every snap from the shotgun & they don't go thru progressions, QB's have 1 or 2 pre-snap reads that tell them where to throw the ball after it's snapped. Safeties are no longer ball hawks, they're basically bigger cornerbacks. With 4 & 5 receivers in a spread formation, defenses play more corners & fewer traditional-type safeties. Defenses seldom blitz spread quarterbacks as they get rid of the ball too quickly.
3. Because so many junior quarterbacks declare for the draft, they don't have the experience, the reps, the passing attempts, to know if they're really any good. Cam Newton will most likely be the first player selected in tomorrow night's draft. He threw a total of 293 passes in his one & only season as a Division I starting quarterback. It used to be a QB would have a minimum of 900 attempts before they came into the draft. Since the NFL is such a quarterback-driven league, teams without a so-called "franchise quarterback" want one, need one, they gotta have it right now. So kids rush from college only to be completely retrained in many of the position's fundamentals. Spread quarterbacks get a crash course in taking a snap from under center & the various 3, 5, & 7-step drops. Fundamentals they would have learned in a pro style offense & doing it for 3 or 4-years. They have to learn this before the Combine or the campus pro day so pro scouts can get some sort of a gauge on their ability. Andrew Luck stayed at Stanford for his senior year & plays in a pro style offense. Pro scouts love that, he's the Heisman front-runner as well as the favorite to be the 1st overall pick next April. Here's a fun fact, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez & Jimmy Clausen all came out as juniors in the past 3 drafts. Would this group been better prepared for the NFL if they'd stayed in school another year & run a pro-style offense as opposed to the spread? Undoubtedly, no question about it. Only Tim Tebow used all of his eligibility & his mechanics are so totally messed up from his days as a spread quarterback, he may never make it as an NFL starter.
4. The emphasis on the running game is lessened in the spread offense. I doubt we'll see a running back taken in the 1st round tomorrow evening. Backs don't come out of college with the gaudy stats they rolled up running out the "I Formation" or the "Wishbone". And just like quarterbacks, they come out early. Running backs know they have the shortest shelf life in pro football, why waste those carries in college, get paid for them as a pro. The "running game Lite" from the the spread, decreases the blocking tight ends learn in pro style offenses, blocking they'll need in the pros.
5. Inside linebackers first responsibility is their pass drops playing against a spread offense while in the pros, stuffing the run is the most important thing. This is why so few inside linebackers transition well to the NFL, it's also the reason their draft grades are so low.
As long as high school & college football programs continue running the spread & variations on this offense, we'll see fewer pro-ready players, especially at the positions I mentioned above. Who does the spread benefit? Perimeter players, wide receivers, cornerbacks, offensive tackles, defensive ends & pass rushing linebackers, the strength of this draft. I think this is the future of draftable talent.
This is the worst safety group I've seen in 10-years, at least. Teams desperate for one are in real trouble. The inside linebacker talent is so bad, I doubt one will be drafted until the third round. Centers are way down, Mike Pouncey will probably be a guard in the pros, maybe it was his 28 bad snaps in the shotgun formation. The only other top prospects, Rodney Hudson & Stefan Wisniewski, played as much guard in college as center. Hudson could continue playing guard next year. I mentioned the lack of a true franchise quarterback already.
This makes tomorrow's draft & I fear many future drafts, not so hot. Oh we'll catch one top-heavy with safeties or linebackers every now & again, but as a rule, those drafts are disappearing.
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